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Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:31 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:31 am
This is the time of the year when people like to predict a team's season record. Most people just use their guts, or they look at the schedule and count losses. I prefer a more rigorous analysis.
I analyzed the nine games that will be "competitive" games and assigned a percentage chance that LSU will win. I looked at early lines, adjusted for subsequent information, and adjusted to percentage chance to win. For the other three games, I gave LSU a 100% chance to win.
100% . . McNeese St
. 55% . . Mississippi St
. 55% . . Auburn
. 90% . . Syracuse
100% . . Eastern Michigan
. 70% . . South Carolina
. 80% . . Florida
100% . . Western Kentucky
. 30% . . Alabama
. 65% . . Arkansas
. 45% . . Ole Miss
. 70% . . Texas A&M
860%
That works out to 8.6 wins for the season; thus, the lines suggest a 9-3 season, perhaps an 8-4 season.*
I used these lines which were current as of July 11, 2015:
Mississippi St . . . . . -3
Auburn. . . . . . . . . -3.5
Syracuse. . . . . . . . -20
South Carolina . . . . -8
Florida. . . . . . . . . . -14
Alabama. . . . . . . . . . 9
Arkansas. . . . . . . . . -6
Ole Miss. . . . . . . . . . 4
Texas A&M . . . . . -7.5
I used this chart to convert the lines to percentage chance of victory:
. % . . . Spread
95% . . . 21.5
90% . . . 16.5
85% .. . . . 16
80% .. . . . 14
75% .. . . . 13
70% . . . . 6.5
65% . . . . 5.5
60% .. . . . . 5
55% .. . . . . 2
50% .. . . . . 0
You can adjust the spreads and use the analysis for your own predictions.
Thoughts, questions, comments, and/or corrections?
*Consider a team that has an 80% chance to win each game in a ten game season.
80% = .8 and ten games = 10; thus: .8 x 10 = 8
Thus, a team with an 80% chance to win each of ten games is most likely to win 8 games.
I analyzed the nine games that will be "competitive" games and assigned a percentage chance that LSU will win. I looked at early lines, adjusted for subsequent information, and adjusted to percentage chance to win. For the other three games, I gave LSU a 100% chance to win.
100% . . McNeese St
. 55% . . Mississippi St
. 55% . . Auburn
. 90% . . Syracuse
100% . . Eastern Michigan
. 70% . . South Carolina
. 80% . . Florida
100% . . Western Kentucky
. 30% . . Alabama
. 65% . . Arkansas
. 45% . . Ole Miss
. 70% . . Texas A&M
860%
That works out to 8.6 wins for the season; thus, the lines suggest a 9-3 season, perhaps an 8-4 season.*
I used these lines which were current as of July 11, 2015:
Mississippi St . . . . . -3
Auburn. . . . . . . . . -3.5
Syracuse. . . . . . . . -20
South Carolina . . . . -8
Florida. . . . . . . . . . -14
Alabama. . . . . . . . . . 9
Arkansas. . . . . . . . . -6
Ole Miss. . . . . . . . . . 4
Texas A&M . . . . . -7.5
I used this chart to convert the lines to percentage chance of victory:
. % . . . Spread
95% . . . 21.5
90% . . . 16.5
85% .. . . . 16
80% .. . . . 14
75% .. . . . 13
70% . . . . 6.5
65% . . . . 5.5
60% .. . . . . 5
55% .. . . . . 2
50% .. . . . . 0
You can adjust the spreads and use the analysis for your own predictions.
Thoughts, questions, comments, and/or corrections?
*Consider a team that has an 80% chance to win each game in a ten game season.
80% = .8 and ten games = 10; thus: .8 x 10 = 8
Thus, a team with an 80% chance to win each of ten games is most likely to win 8 games.
24
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:36 am to Salviati
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:39 am to Salviati
quote:
*Consider a team that has an 80% chance to win each game in a ten game season. 80% = .8 and ten games = 10; thus: .8 x 10 = 8 Thus, a team with an 80% chance to win each of ten games is most likely to win 8 games.
That's not how it works. This is called the gambler's fallacy.
You're falling into the trap of assuming the season is a single event. It isn't. It is a collection of individual events, each of which have their own independent odds of success/failure.
If your odds of success are accurate, LSU has a better chance of winning 10 games than 8 games.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 10:44 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:39 am to Salviati
Betting lines have nothing to do with the actual ability of a team and everything to do with public perception. You have concluded that public opinion thinks we'll have 8 to 9 wins.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:44 am to Salviati
lolz.
You do realize lines have nothing to do with who will win, right? It's about the betting percentages.
Also, What are these
adjustments you did? because based on the percentages and the lines you showed, it appears to be fricking arbitrary.
lolz...this is so absurdly wrong it's hilarious.
You do realize lines have nothing to do with who will win, right? It's about the betting percentages.
Also, What are these
quote:
adjusted for subsequent information,
adjustments you did? because based on the percentages and the lines you showed, it appears to be fricking arbitrary.
quote:
Consider a team that has an 80% chance to win each game in a ten game season.
80% = .8 and ten games = 10; thus: .8 x 10 = 8
Thus, a team with an 80% chance to win each of ten games is most likely to win 8 games.
lolz...this is so absurdly wrong it's hilarious.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 10:46 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:44 am to Salviati
As much as I enjoy looking at statistics and trends, these types of calculations never make sense to me. 
Between these four games, there is at best a 35% chance we lose each individual game, yet your analysis would suggest that we will go 3-1 against these four.
quote:
90% . . Syracuse
70% . . South Carolina
80% . . Florida
65% . . Arkansas
Between these four games, there is at best a 35% chance we lose each individual game, yet your analysis would suggest that we will go 3-1 against these four.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:49 am to Salviati
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:50 am to Salviati
Looks about right
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:53 am to Guava Jelly
quote:No. That is NOT the gambler's fallacy. The gambler's fallacy is thinking that if a penny is tossed into the air and turns up heads five times in a row, it less likely turn up heads on the next coin toss. However, the odds remain 50%.
That's not how it works. This is called the gambler's fallacy.
quote:No. Each game is calculated individually.
You're falling into the trap of assuming the season is a single event. It isn't.
quote:That's what I did.
It is a collection of individual events, each of which have their own independent odds of success/failure.
quote::sigh: No. You are wrong. Again, if a team has an 80% chance of winning EACH of ten games, then the team is mot likely to win 8 games.
If your odds of success are accurate, LSU has a better chance of winning 10 games than 8 games.
If a penny is slightly bent such that it has a 60% chance of coming up heads, and it is tossed into the air 10 times, how many times do you think it will turn up heads?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:53 am to CptBengal
quote:
this is so absurdly wrong it's hilarious.
Really ready for the season to start.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:55 am to Salviati
Ignore.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 10:56 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:59 am to DocBugbear
quote::sigh:
Betting lines have nothing to do with the actual ability of a team and everything to do with public perception.
Betting lines have everything to do with money being bet on games. Most money is smart money. Thus, betting lines are some of the best indicators of the actual ability of a team.
quote:No. Betting lines are not a public opinion poll. Not everyone bets. Most bettors are intelligent about football. MORE IMPORTANTLY, most money wagered by bettors is wagered by intelligent bettors. Small bets tend to be wagered by less "football intelligent" bettors. Large bets tend to be wagered by more "football intelligent" bettors. More money is smart money.
You have concluded that public opinion thinks we'll have 8 to 9 wins.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:00 am to Salviati
quote:
Again, if a team has an 80% chance of winning EACH of ten games, then the team is mot likely to win 8 games.
NO.
good god man. We wont even get into the fact that the events are related as part of a series.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:02 am to CptBengal
quote:Do you know anything about betting? Do you have any idea what I was saying in the OP?
You do realize lines have nothing to do with who will win, right? It's about the betting percentages.
quote:The conversion from point spread to percentages was based on articles that I read.
because based on the percentages and the lines you showed, it appears to be fricking arbitrary.
quote:Oh please show me the errors of my ways . . . if you can.quote:lolz...this is so absurdly wrong it's hilarious.
Consider a team that has an 80% chance to win each game in a ten game season.
80% = .8 and ten games = 10; thus: .8 x 10 = 8
Thus, a team with an 80% chance to win each of ten games is most likely to win 8 games.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:04 am to chilge1
quote:You're looking at the lowest percentage. That is not dispositive of the end result of those four games. The likelihood is that LSU wins 3.05 of those games, rounded to 3 games.quote:Between these four games, there is at best a 35% chance we lose each individual game, yet your analysis would suggest that we will go 3-1 against these four.
90% . . Syracuse
70% . . South Carolina
80% . . Florida
65% . . Arkansas
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:05 am to Salviati
Yes. The gambler's fallacy deals with viewing the odds of success as an aggregate, which is what you're doing.
If you have a 5% chance of winning a hand in poker and a 90% chance of winning three others, you're more likely to win 3/4 of those games based on the individual odds because each event is independent, not 68.75% based on an aggregate of those odds.
If you have a 5% chance of winning a hand in poker and a 90% chance of winning three others, you're more likely to win 3/4 of those games based on the individual odds because each event is independent, not 68.75% based on an aggregate of those odds.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:05 am to studentsect
That IS how it works.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:06 am to CptBengal
quote:quote:NO.
Again, if a team has an 80% chance of winning EACH of ten games, then the team is mot likely to win 8 games.
good god man. We wont even get into the fact that the events are related as part of a series.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:07 am to Salviati
quote:
You do realize lines have nothing to do with who will win, right? It's about the betting percentages.
Do you know anything about betting?
yes,lines are set up based on public perception and dollars moved per side to create a balanced distribution....IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHO WILL WIN, hence why the sharps wait till late to get on a aline.
quote:
The conversion from point spread to percentages was based on articles that I read.
which articles, which methods did you use?
quote:
Oh please show me the errors of my ways . . . if you can.
Each game isnt a coin flip..the events are NOT independent.
jesus, you really are a moron.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:10 am to chilge1
quote:If a penny is tossed into the air 100 times, how many times do you think it will turn up heads?quote:Between these four games, there is at best a 35% chance we lose each individual game, yet your analysis would suggest that we will go 3-1 against these four.
90% . . Syracuse
70% . . South Carolina
80% . . Florida
65% . . Arkansas
ANSWER = .5 x 100 = 50
If a penny is slightly bent such that it has a 60% chance of coming up heads, and it is tossed into the air 100 times, how many times do you think it will turn up heads? ANSWER = .6 x 100 = 60
If the two pennies are tossed into the air alternately 50 times each, how many times do you think the pennies will turn up heads?
ANSWER = .5 x 50 + .6 x 50 = 55
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