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Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:14 pm to nickbear
quote:I feel almost certain that we all understand that expected values might not reflect actual values. Of course, a penny might not land on heads every other coin flip. Of course, a penny might land on heads 10 times in a row.
The fundamental flaw here is expected value of random variable only indicates large amount of repetitions of an experiment. Using your coin toss analogy, for each match you are tossing each coin exactly once, not 100 times. Thus the outcome might not be close to expected value at all.
The purpose of a a preseason prediction is predict the expected outcome and, of course, it might not reflect the actual outcome. That is fundamental.
quote:You are really trying HARD to throw mud in the water. The fact that Vegas uses, IN PART, the history of a team (previous games) to predict the result of future games is IRRELEVANT to the correlation between the odds/lines for a game and the outcome of that game. In short, the odds/lines for a game are highly predictive of the outcome of that game.
Additionally, although each match can be seen as independent event, the odds/lines for games are highly correlated to the outcome of previous games.
quote:This sentence makes zero sense.
Thus the pre-game odds can be a lot of different from current odds which makes the prediction inaccurate.
In what universe are the pregame odds for a game different from the current odds for a game. I'd like to make wagers in that universe.
The relevant odds/lines for a game are always the pregame odds for the game. (Unless you made a bet on the game and want to collect.)
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:16 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
But this thing, trying to predict our record based on betting lines before we've played a single down this year, is wasted effort. Just my opinion.
Call vegas and tell them then.
Because what the OP describes in "his" prediction is what vegas uses to come up with their season win totals per team. And as he showed with a lot more detail, they set it at 8.5 wins
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:23 pm to Salviati
Why do you keep ignoring the failure of the math you used...
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)...
NOT P(A,B,...) = P(A) + P(B)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)...
NOT P(A,B,...) = P(A) + P(B)
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:25 pm to atltiger6487
quote:Worthless analysis . . . but you're not trying to pick a fight?!?!
I'm not trying to pick a fight here, all I'm saying is it's a lot of time and energy to put into a (in my opinion) worthless analysis.
It's okay if you don't know how to perform or evaluate the analysis. And trust me, it didn't take long at all. Less time than you have spent posting repeatedly in this thread.
quote:And yet you continue to put in "a lot of time and energy to put into a (in my opinion) worthless" refutation of my analysis. LINK
all I'm saying is it's a lot of time and energy to put into a (in my opinion) worthless analysis
quote:And yet there are numerous threads created every year that are trying to predict our record before we've played a single down this year.
But this thing, trying to predict our record based on betting lines before we've played a single down this year, is wasted effort. Just my opinion.
And, as you have ADMITTED, you do it yourself. You engage in this wasted effort. You look at the schedule. You look at the roster. You find threads that are trying to predict our record before we've played a single down this year. You post in threads that are trying to predict our record before we've played a single down this year. You actually go to the trouble of trying to predict our record before we've played a single down this year.
Then you repeatedly post in this thread to condemn me for wasted effort.
You seem every much like a hypocrite.
Just my opinion.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:29 pm to Guava Jelly
quote:Well, you're wrong. You just don't know how to do it.
I'll say it again. You can't view probability as an aggregate.
quote:While your math is correct, your analysis is NOT my analysis.
8.6/12 = a 71.67% probability that we win an individual contest.
quote:I COMPLETELY agree. In fact, the odds greatly differ from 71.67% for each game. In fact, I know what the odds are for each game based on betting lines:
But as I said above, the likelihood that we win could be far greater or far lower in a given game.
100% . . McNeese St
. 55% . . Mississippi St
. 55% . . Auburn
. 90% . . Syracuse
100% . . Eastern Michigan
. 70% . . South Carolina
. 80% . . Florida
100% . . Western Kentucky
. 30% . . Alabama
. 65% . . Arkansas
. 45% . . Ole Miss
. 70% . . Texas A&M
quote:I COMPLETELY agree.
The relative odds of success in one game (when viewed individually) has no bearing on the relative odds of success in another.
And when you add up those odds for the season, they indicate that LSU is likely to win 8.6 games, rounded to 9 games out of 12.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:30 pm to Salviati
quote:
And when you add up those odds for the season, they indicate that LSU is likely to win 8.6 games, rounded to 9 games out of 12.
WRONG.
When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
That is the conclusion from your math...and as Guava pointed out, we KNOW that isnt true.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:31 pm to Salviati
time and effort spemt when vegas already did this calculation
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:36 pm to jonboy
quote:Exactly so, but the principle remains the same. Each football game is like the flip of different coins with varying degrees of bend.quote:But I'm only predicting one flip. Comparatively, each additional coin toss would require a different coin with varying degrees of bend.
If you take a bent coin that has a 52% chance of landing on heads and flip it 100 times, your analysis would count all flips as a predictive "win" individually. Thus, your analysis would predict the coin landing on heads 100 times.
100% . . Coin 1
. 55% . . Coin 3
. 55% . . Coin 3
. 90% . . Coin 4
100% . . Coin 5
. 70% . . Coin 6
. 80% . . Coin 7
100% . . Coin 8
. 30% . . Coin 9
. 65% . . Coin 10
. 45% . . Coin 11
. 70% . . Coin 12
If each of the preceding percentages represents the likelihood of a heads appearing for that coin, and each coin is flipped once, the expected number of heads appearing would be 8.6 rounded to 9.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:39 pm to Guava Jelly
quote:Not 8. 8.6 rounded to 9.
Ok, buddy. You're right. Even though as it sits (according to your odds) LSU has a greater probability of winning 10 of the games (when viewed individually), it's more likely that they'll win 8.
You say it can't be done, the math cannot be done. It can be done. It's not that hard. I've properly done it in the OP.
quote:So you weren't trying to troll me. Dude, you can look this stuff up. You can learn it. It's not that hard.
I'm out.
First Tip: Ignore CptBengal.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:40 pm to Salviati
quote:
First Tip: Ignore CptBengal.
Ignore me?
You cant defend the math you used. I'm using the rules of probability. You made up your own "rules" and call it an "analysis"
It would be cute if you were ten years old.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:46 pm to chilge1
quote:I hear you. It feels wrong. However, consider these statements:
I'm no statistician, but the way you did it just defies common sense, IMO.
By this rationale, a team who is favored 90/10 in each game they play should post a 11-1 record... which just seems odd to me, similar to the example I used earlier with FLA, SCAR, CUSE, and ARKY.
Even if statistically true, it feels wrong.
(1) To be 90% likely to win every game would require being a favorite in every game by 16.5 points. No team in the Power Five conferences is favored by at least 16.5 points in every game.
(2) That 10% chance of losing cannot be ignored. It literally means that a team is likely to lose 1 out of every 10 games. Thus a team who is favored 90/10 in each game is likely to lose a game if they play 10 games.
(3) You gut tells you LSU wins all four games against FLA, SCAR, CUSE, and ARKY. Me too. However, the odds say differently.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:48 pm to CptBengal
quote:It is true.quote:Even assuming this is true... It isn't.
. I see games as independent events when viewed from the time that the prediction is made
quote:You continue to say that I'm wrong. You continue to say that I misunderstand.
Your conclusion is still wrong and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of what you calculated with those probabilities.
You continue to REFUSE to post YOUR proposed analysis.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:49 pm to Salviati
quote:
(1) To be 90% likely to win every game would require being a favorite in every game by 16.5 points.
based on what equation?
quote:
That 10% chance of losing cannot be ignored. It literally means that a team is likely to lose 1 out of every 10 games. Thus a team who is favored 90/10 in each game is likely to lose a game if they play 10 games.
provided the teams are the same, the date is the same, and all other factors are identical for each of the ten games
quote:
. Me too. However, the odds say differently.
WRONG, again.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:50 pm to Geaux23
quote:
Fire your math tutor asap
What is your analysis and conclusion?
HINT: MY analysis and conclusion is correct. You can copy off of me. I'll be your math tutor.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:50 pm to Salviati
quote:
You continue to say that I'm wrong. You continue to say that I misunderstand.
You continue to REFUSE to post YOUR proposed analysis.
I dont need an analysis to KNOW your analysis is mathematically wrong.
I'll post the equation again for you, moron:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
NOT P(A,B,...) = P(A) + P(B)
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:54 pm to Guava Jelly
quote:Okay.
I've not changed what I said from the beginning.
quote:Honestly, I was hoping for your sake that you were.
I'm not trolling anyone.
quote:Okay, show me yours.
I don't agree with your methodology.
quote:So what you're saying is that it CANNOT be done. But it can be done. It's done all of the time. And the way I did it is the correct way to do it.
And I don't think you understand what it means to treat the games as independent events. If you did, you wouldn't have tried to add all the percentages up to divine a win total to begin with.
quote:Ignorant merely means that you do not understand. It doesn't mean that you are incapable of understanding.
Call me "ignorant" if you like, pal.
quote:And you say that you are not trolling.
Enjoy your hokey pseudo math.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:59 pm to CptBengal
quote:Why do you keep posting bullshite?
Why do you keep ignoring the failure of the math you used...
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)...
NOT P(A,B,...) = P(A) + P(B)
Why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
Come on CptBengal, this is your big opportunity to show me up. I know you have failed every time in the past, but maybe, just maybe, you can prove me wrong this one time. Oh wouldn't that make you so happy!!
You continue to post in this thread, but you continue to fail to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion.
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:00 pm to Salviati
quote:
Salviati
Just a suggestion, but go back three seasons using the same methodology & compare the results.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:05 pm to Salviati
quote:
Why do you keep posting bullshite?
This isnt bullshite, this is a RULE of probability...
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
you may not like it, because it makes your analysis look like a moron did it (one did), but it is how probability is calculated.
quote:
Why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
Again, moron. YOUR ANALYSIS IS WRONG. YOUR CONCLUSIONS EXHIBIT A SEVERE FAILURE TO COMPREHEND THE RULES CONCERNING HOW TO CALCULATE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EVENTS WITH PROBABILITIES. MOREOVER, YOUR FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND THE MOST BASIC EQUATION OF PROBABILITY IS HILARIOUSLY PATHETIC.
quote:
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
I'm saying you did it incorrectly, and you did do it incorrectly. You then spent 5 pages defending your failure oc comprehension of probability.
We won't even get into the fact that the line isn't a perception of victory, or that your change from line to probability is arbitrary at best and follows a uniform distribution at worst.
BTW: If you do the statistics for the FB team, things are even more hilariously pathetic in those offices than I imagined.
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