re: Official BCS Discussion Thread -UPDATED

Matt what about in this case..

OU beats Oklahoma state. LSU loses a game (let's just say Arkansas). And for the sake of the argument let's just say that Penn state finishes the season with two wins.

After that chaos, the polls look like this
1) Alabama- the media would love to vote them up here, since most think they should have beat LSU.
2) OU
3) Oregon
4) LSU
5) Arkansas

In this scenario we would get into the seccg most likely bc the bcs rankings would have bama/LSU at the top and LSU goes by tie-breaker. Now let's assume we beat uga. Does a #1 bama ranking in the polls still keep them out bc our CPU score will be so strong?

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In this scenario we would get into the seccg most likely bc the bcs rankings would have bama/LSU at the top and LSU goes by tie-breaker. Now let's assume we beat uga. Does a #1 bama ranking in the polls still keep them out bc our CPU score will be so strong?

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Well, the entire voting would be re-thought. I am pretty sure LSU then gets kicked back up above Bama. If you are arguing that LSU is a clear #4 in the polls even after beating UGA and Bama a clear #1 - then no our computer score wouldn't be enough. I just don't buy they put Bama above LSU.

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What basis can I give you? I'm not doing the math like you (which I greatly appreciate). If only 20%of voters need to put LSU ahead of Oregon for us to go to the 'ship, then I bow to you, cuz we will go.

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Well this is all I am looking for. Realistically, what percent of voters put Oregon over an LSU team that beat them? If you only think 50% we are fine.

Here is the deal. We should easily be at least 1 full spot above Oregon in the computers (maybe more). Since computers only count half as much as the human polls we need to be within 1/2 a spot of Oregon in the human polls. So if 75% of voters put Oregon in front of LSU and 25% do the reverse. If teams like 1-loss Bama can wedge their way between LSU and Oregon in the puters (and I think they will), we need much less than 25% of voters.

My thinking is that they'd love nothing more than to boost bama back up. Maybe it will not be as far as #1 and #4, but I would see #1 and #3 or 2 and 3.

Yeah I get that logic, but I just hate how all you have been hearing is how bama outplayed LSU.

If LSU loses to arky (a team bama beat), and LSU beat bama (in a situation where most "experts" feel bama was actually the better team). Then I can see where they'd feel bama is more disserving and rank them ahead. It doesnt make much sense, bc in my case LSU is the sec champ...but a lot of the experts don't make much sense in their logic either.

Anyway, thanks for all you do. I've been looking forward to your threads. I appreciate it. You made me feel a bit more comfortable with our situation.

My best guess is that if Arkansas beat LSU the polls would like the following before the SECCG, with Bama, LSU, and Arky only separated by a few votes total

1. OSU
2. Bama
3. LSU
4. Arkansas
5. Oregon

After the SECCG, the voters would change. remember UGA was ranked above LSU in 2007, but they adjusted because they realized how stupid that was.

1. OSU
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Bama
5. Arkansas

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I am forced to watch every A&M game, if they, A$M win out I'll eat Reveille's dog biscuits.

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Unfortunately all they have left is a sure win this week against Kansas, and then a very average Texas team in College Station. They probably will win them both.

oregon does not make the bcscg over one loss lsu. if lsu had looked bad throughout the season, it might be different but, that hasn't happened. lsu continued to win big.

ditto bama.

if lsu loses to ark, no way ark goes to the seccg over lsu. lsu's sos and computer rankings would still be significantly higher because lsu has a much better body of work over the course of the season. the human polls wouldn't be enough to overcome that.

if lsu loses in the seccg, lsu still has the inside track to the ncg (provided ok beats ok st). lsu will have beaten more teams that ended the season ranked than any other team and the only loss would be to a red hot georgia team on an 11 game win streak in a very big game, basically a home game for georgia.

of course, all of the one loss scenarios can be attributed to boise's loss.

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2. An Arkansas loss would be uneasy because of the 3-way tie which is determined by the BCS. What LSU needs is for Arkansas to be the bottom of the 3 in the BCS standings. It is tough to tell what the voters would do, but I think the three are split pretty evenly, maybe with Bama getting a slight overall edge. But it appears Arkansas' computer score will clearly be the worst of three (and LSU the best). Arky might even be wedged-out of the computers by teams like Oregon. That should mean Arky gets left out, LSU goes to the SECCG by virtue of their win over Bama, and all is right in the world. If Arky beats LSU by double digits, some of this changes. Worse yet - if Bama loses Auburn it negates the need for a 3-way tie and Arky plays in the SECCG

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What happens if Arkansas goes to the SEC Championship? Can LSU still make the national title then?

I agree. Brad Edwards really hasn't done a very good job this year. He really seems convinced that Alabama would get a rematch with LSU if LSU wins out and Oklahoma St loses. His rational is that Alabama is ranked higher right now... But he's failing to take into consideration the way voters approach the final vote.

And as bad as Brad Edwards is I think Jerry Palm is even worse. I actually heard him say, and swear he said this, that if LSU were to beat Arkansas and lose to UGA then there would be such chaos that UGA would be in play for the BCS title game.