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My analysis of the College Football Playoff - gets a little nerdy
Posted on 11/11/15 at 8:35 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 8:35 am
I took the top 16 teams of the CFP and looked at their % of winning out. I based this on the Massey Ratings projections for remaining games and multiplied out the probabilities.
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
You can find them by clicking on the individual teams. I could have used something like the ESPN FPI projections but I don't suppose it matters what numbers I use. These numbers are obviously dynamic and the probability of winning out for each team goes up dramatically if they win the first of their remaining games.
*Note, I did not include conference championship games as there is no projection data on those. These win out % are based on just the remaining regular season games.
That being said, this is what the field looks like. I put comments on my personal opinion of the chances of the teams making it if they win out. I think we're probably at the point now that a loss for anyone, including the undefeated teams probably disqualifies them.
I might update next week as a guide, or just edit this thread and bump it. As you can see there is a lot of football left to be played and no one other than Clemson has a fairly easy road. My guess is the top 4 will only have 2 of the current teams at year end at most.
A few observations from the data above:
-It's not likely that a team will emerge from the Big 12 undefeated. If this happens, I believe a one loss team gets left out.
- I color coded the teams according to conference. I lumped ND in with the PAC because their fate relies on the head to head with Stanford and Utah as noted above has an outside shot if things go right.
- I don't think an undefeated Big 12 team gets left out
- Big 10 will likely have to have an undefeated champion and if it's Iowa, it may require that none of the Big 12 teams go undefeated
- As for LSU, the more I look at things, I think it's very unlikely that we make it in without a Bama loss. Even then it might require that there are no undefeated teams in the Big 12 and all of the teams in the PAC 12/ND scenario likely beat us out if everything falls into place for them. Perhaps including Utah.
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
You can find them by clicking on the individual teams. I could have used something like the ESPN FPI projections but I don't suppose it matters what numbers I use. These numbers are obviously dynamic and the probability of winning out for each team goes up dramatically if they win the first of their remaining games.
*Note, I did not include conference championship games as there is no projection data on those. These win out % are based on just the remaining regular season games.
That being said, this is what the field looks like. I put comments on my personal opinion of the chances of the teams making it if they win out. I think we're probably at the point now that a loss for anyone, including the undefeated teams probably disqualifies them.
I might update next week as a guide, or just edit this thread and bump it. As you can see there is a lot of football left to be played and no one other than Clemson has a fairly easy road. My guess is the top 4 will only have 2 of the current teams at year end at most.
A few observations from the data above:
-It's not likely that a team will emerge from the Big 12 undefeated. If this happens, I believe a one loss team gets left out.
- I color coded the teams according to conference. I lumped ND in with the PAC because their fate relies on the head to head with Stanford and Utah as noted above has an outside shot if things go right.
- I don't think an undefeated Big 12 team gets left out
- Big 10 will likely have to have an undefeated champion and if it's Iowa, it may require that none of the Big 12 teams go undefeated
- As for LSU, the more I look at things, I think it's very unlikely that we make it in without a Bama loss. Even then it might require that there are no undefeated teams in the Big 12 and all of the teams in the PAC 12/ND scenario likely beat us out if everything falls into place for them. Perhaps including Utah.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 8:37 am
7
Posted on 11/11/15 at 8:42 am to Powerman
Solid analysis and it seems to line up with common sense. 
Posted on 11/11/15 at 8:44 am to Powerman
Unless we win the SEC we will not be in period. Bama is the only team that gets that type of love
Posted on 11/11/15 at 8:46 am to winston318
quote:
Unless we win the SEC we will not be in period. Bama is the only team that gets that type of love
what if 2-loss Florida beats 1-loss Bama, and Tigers win out?
Posted on 11/11/15 at 8:50 am to gizmoflak
quote:
what if 2-loss Florida beats 1-loss Bama, and Tigers win out?
We would need no undefeated Big 12 teams and probably need Stanford to beat ND, lose to Cal, and then beat Utah.
*ETA: Stanford could lost to Oregon also, but the preference is they lost to Cal because that would put Oregon in the PAC 12 championship against Utah who blew them out earlier in the year. Alternatively, we could also pull for Utah to drop a remaining game, which is very likely.
That would allow us to leap frog Bama, Florida, ND, Stanford, and keep Utah from possibly jumping us.
For all of those things to happen and LSU to win out and sneak in are severely unlikely. Like less than 10% at best.
Picture will be clearer next week. We have an easier path with a Bama loss.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 8:55 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 8:53 am to Powerman
I just cannot figure out how OK State is currently behind Baylor. This shows that the committee does not necessarily start from scratch every week.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 8:56 am to Tigerpaul1969
quote:
I just cannot figure out how OK State is currently behind Baylor. This shows that the committee does not necessarily start from scratch every week.
Agreed. But thankfully all the Big 12 teams have to play each other.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:03 am to gizmoflak
quote:
what if 2-loss Florida beats 1-loss Bama, and Tigers win out?
Then the SEC won't have a team in. We can't impress the committee with our remaining schedule. We shite the bed vs Bama so without a conference championship we won't be in.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:09 am to Powerman
This looks a lot like 2007 
I think if we win our next three games convincingly it will restore some of our luster. If this scenario does play out and we beat Arkansas, Ole Miss, and TAMU convincingly we could sneak in. It's obviously easier if Alabama loses and we sneak into the SEC championship game, but this team just needs to keep fighting and see what unfolds. 
I think if we win our next three games convincingly it will restore some of our luster. If this scenario does play out and we beat Arkansas, Ole Miss, and TAMU convincingly we could sneak in. It's obviously easier if Alabama loses and we sneak into the SEC championship game, but this team just needs to keep fighting and see what unfolds. Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:11 am to Powerman
Just my .02....goes along with most of what you said. A few different thoughts.
Four of these five are IN if they happen.
Clemson (as undefeated ACC Champ)
Alabama (as 1-loss SEC Champ, Florida or LSU in as well, but likely lower seeded)
Undefeated Big Ten Champ (Ohio State or Iowa)
Undefeated Big 12 Champ (Okie State or Baylor)
1-loss Pac Ten Champ (if Stanford ) OR Notre Dame)
Now here’s where it becomes a real complicated case…You know, a lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what-have yous.
1-loss Big 12 Champ (if Baylor or Oklahoma State)
1-loss non-champion LSU
1-loss Big Ten Champ (if Ohio State)
1-loss Pac-12 Champ (If Utah)
1-loss Big 12 Champ (if TCU or Oklahoma)
1-loss ACC Champ (Clemson or UNC) …team would have likely lost to South Carolina!
1-loss Big Ten Champ (Iowa, Michigan State)
2-loss Pac 12 Champ (Stanford, Utah)
2-loss Notre Dame
2-loss Big 10 Champ (Michigan)
No doubt- the committee will probably not want two teams for the same conference. Based on that and the fact that the Big 12 got left out last year, I think one-loss Baylor or Okie State with a “quality loss” would get in over 1-loss LSU…though there always could be some pro-LSU sentiment because of 2011. Ohio State could also be in the discussion based on the manner of loss – although the overall weakness of their schedule hurts them.
Assuming Bama wins out, LSU’s loss (#2 Bama) would be much better than Utah’s (18 to USC) Oklahoma’s (Texas) or TCUs (20 points to Okie State, who would obviously fall in rankings). 1-loss ACC Champs would be UNC (South Carolina) beats Clemson in title game or Clemson loses to South Carolina the week before. 1-loss Iowa as Big 10 Champ most likely is loss to Nebraska, which would also be 1-loss Michigan State’s.
Four of these five are IN if they happen.
Clemson (as undefeated ACC Champ)
Alabama (as 1-loss SEC Champ, Florida or LSU in as well, but likely lower seeded)
Undefeated Big Ten Champ (Ohio State or Iowa)
Undefeated Big 12 Champ (Okie State or Baylor)
1-loss Pac Ten Champ (if Stanford ) OR Notre Dame)
Now here’s where it becomes a real complicated case…You know, a lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what-have yous.
1-loss Big 12 Champ (if Baylor or Oklahoma State)
1-loss non-champion LSU
1-loss Big Ten Champ (if Ohio State)
1-loss Pac-12 Champ (If Utah)
1-loss Big 12 Champ (if TCU or Oklahoma)
1-loss ACC Champ (Clemson or UNC) …team would have likely lost to South Carolina!
1-loss Big Ten Champ (Iowa, Michigan State)
2-loss Pac 12 Champ (Stanford, Utah)
2-loss Notre Dame
2-loss Big 10 Champ (Michigan)
No doubt- the committee will probably not want two teams for the same conference. Based on that and the fact that the Big 12 got left out last year, I think one-loss Baylor or Okie State with a “quality loss” would get in over 1-loss LSU…though there always could be some pro-LSU sentiment because of 2011. Ohio State could also be in the discussion based on the manner of loss – although the overall weakness of their schedule hurts them.
Assuming Bama wins out, LSU’s loss (#2 Bama) would be much better than Utah’s (18 to USC) Oklahoma’s (Texas) or TCUs (20 points to Okie State, who would obviously fall in rankings). 1-loss ACC Champs would be UNC (South Carolina) beats Clemson in title game or Clemson loses to South Carolina the week before. 1-loss Iowa as Big 10 Champ most likely is loss to Nebraska, which would also be 1-loss Michigan State’s.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:39 am to Powerman
Think we need the gumps to lose, unfortunately.
All the chaos in the world won't help us if we're not SEC champs. Don't think two teams from any conference are getting in with a field this crowded.
All the chaos in the world won't help us if we're not SEC champs. Don't think two teams from any conference are getting in with a field this crowded.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:09 am to LMfan
quote:
Think we need the gumps to lose, unfortunately.
Agreed
Too many things have to happen even with us winning out
It could happen but not likely
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:16 am to Powerman
I don't understand people's fascination with predictions and "what-ifs".
There's a month of the season left with some very big games among the top teams. Just let it all play out. So much will change and it will be much clearer at the end.
I suppose people just like to argue about these things, but it's just wasted energy to me.
All that being said, the one scenario that's most important and that I admit to following is that we need Bama to lose and we need to win out. Other than that, we've got no shot at the playoff. The committee isn't inviting a team that didn't even win its division. Just not happening this year.
There's a month of the season left with some very big games among the top teams. Just let it all play out. So much will change and it will be much clearer at the end.
I suppose people just like to argue about these things, but it's just wasted energy to me.
All that being said, the one scenario that's most important and that I admit to following is that we need Bama to lose and we need to win out. Other than that, we've got no shot at the playoff. The committee isn't inviting a team that didn't even win its division. Just not happening this year.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 10:17 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 2:28 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
I don't understand people's fascination with predictions and "what-ifs".
I was bored at work
Wanted to lay out some realistic paths for not only LSU but other teams to get in.
quote:
There's a month of the season left with some very big games among the top teams
Yes, as is well documented in the OP.
quote:
Just let it all play out. So much will change and it will be much clearer at the end.
Right. But I thought it would be useful to show what others games people might be interested in if they have a team in the mix.
LSU for instance not only needs to pull for MSU but we need to keep our eyes on several upcoming matchups.
quote:
All that being said, the one scenario that's most important and that I admit to following is that we need Bama to lose and we need to win out. Other than that, we've got no shot at the playoff.
Sure, but consider that even though this is posted on the rant, it's not only for LSU fans.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 2:37 pm to Powerman
Your playoff candidates are in bold. Clemson and Alabama are in. Ohio St./Iowa is in and unless there's an undefeated Big 12 team, Notre Dame/Stanford is in.
1. 9-0 Clemson (#1 ACC)
2. 8-1 Alabama (#1 SEC)
3. 9-0 Ohio St. (#1 Big 10)
4. 8-1 Notre Dame (Independent)
5. 9-0 Iowa (#2 Big 10)
6. 8-0 Baylor (#1 Big 12)
7. 8-1 Stanford (#1 Pac-12)
8. 9-0 Oklahoma St. (#2 Big 12)
9. 7-1 LSU (#2 SEC)
10. 8-1 Utah (#2 Pac-12)
11. 8-1 Florida (#3 SEC)
12. 8-1 Oklahoma (#3 Big 12)
13. 8-1 Michigan St. (#3 Big 10)
14. 7-2 Michigan (#4 Big 10)
15. 8-1 TCU (#4 Big 12)
16. 7-2 Florida St. (#2 ACC)
17. 7-2 Mississippi St. (#5 SEC)
1. 9-0 Clemson (#1 ACC)
2. 8-1 Alabama (#1 SEC)
3. 9-0 Ohio St. (#1 Big 10)
4. 8-1 Notre Dame (Independent)
5. 9-0 Iowa (#2 Big 10)
6. 8-0 Baylor (#1 Big 12)
7. 8-1 Stanford (#1 Pac-12)
8. 9-0 Oklahoma St. (#2 Big 12)
9. 7-1 LSU (#2 SEC)
10. 8-1 Utah (#2 Pac-12)
11. 8-1 Florida (#3 SEC)
12. 8-1 Oklahoma (#3 Big 12)
13. 8-1 Michigan St. (#3 Big 10)
14. 7-2 Michigan (#4 Big 10)
15. 8-1 TCU (#4 Big 12)
16. 7-2 Florida St. (#2 ACC)
17. 7-2 Mississippi St. (#5 SEC)
Posted on 11/11/15 at 2:57 pm to chilge1
quote:
Clemson and Alabama are in.
Bama probably has about a 35% chance of making it in
Posted on 11/11/15 at 3:02 pm to Powerman
If Bama runs the table, Bama is in.
If Bama loses to State or Auburn, LSU is in.
If Bama loses to Florida, Florida is in.
I just can't see a 1-loss Pac-12 Champion or Notre Dame getting in ahead of a 1-loss SEC Champion (assuming an undefeated ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 Champ).
If Bama loses to State or Auburn, LSU is in.
If Bama loses to Florida, Florida is in.
I just can't see a 1-loss Pac-12 Champion or Notre Dame getting in ahead of a 1-loss SEC Champion (assuming an undefeated ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 Champ).
Posted on 11/11/15 at 3:11 pm to chilge1
quote:
If Bama runs the table, Bama is in
Yes
quote:
If Bama loses to State or Auburn, LSU is in.
Maybe, we probably still need some help though
quote:
If Bama loses to Florida, Florida is in.
Probably
Posted on 11/11/15 at 3:26 pm to Powerman
quote:
Maybe, we probably still need some help though
I don't think we do if we beat Florida again.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 3:37 pm to chilge1
quote:
I don't think we do if we beat Florida again.
Well we would at least need Florida to beat FSU in my opinion.
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