re: LSU will not play the SEC West championship game if, just if, we lose

Matt I would be interested to see your thoughts on the what it's were LSU to beat Arkansas but lose to UGAin Atlanta.....I would think we would still be top two in the BCS, right?

The only question in that case is if LSU drops past Alabama, which is debatable.

LSU will certainly not drop past Arkansas, and Alabama won't either (they beat Arkansas by 24).

The voters will look at body of work and here ya go:

LSU
Best wins = Alabama (3), Oregon (4), West Virginia (23)
Loss = Arkansas (would have to be close)

Alabama
Best wins = Arkansas (6), Penn State (21 and fading fast)
Loss = LSU

Arkansas
Best wins = LSU (1)
Loss = Alabama (3) by a whopping 24 points

Arkansas' next best win is A&M, and they are now 5-5 thanks to some 4th quarter debacles all season long.

"Body of work" and "resume" works in LSU's favor the most.

LSU goes to the SEC CG. And even if we're 3rd for some unknown reason behind Alabama, we would jump them with a win over Georgia.

LSU WILL BE IN THE BCS CG if they lose to Arkansas close and then go on to beat Georgia (who will be top 10 by then).

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I honestly think LSU can lose one game - any game - and would still be in the MNC.

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that's very possible too

If Georgia is top 10 (they should be if they win out), then the loss won't look as bad (they would be coming in on a 10 game win streak). It's imperative Georgia win out, that Ga Tech game is critical now. They cannot lose that game and have 3 losses and be ranked out of the top 15.

I think LSU drops to #2 with a close loss to Georgia if Georgia is on a 10 game win streak in the top 10.

Again, it's "body of work" and LSU beat the #3 and #4 teams. Would be a little crazy to think they would go ahead of us, with LSU having an extra win on their resume as well (12-1) over Bama and we blew out Oregon.

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With a loss to Arkansas potentially being more problematic?

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1) The "best" loss would be to Ole Miss as stupid as that sounds.

2) Arky poses a problem only because there is a chance it keeps us out of the SECCG. I am 90% sure we still get in, but I would be nervous. If we do get in the SECCG, then the Arky loss isn't a problem

3) UGA would be the worst loss because of that whole "you should win your conference" argument. But it won't go far. Are the voters really going to put Oregon over LSU because they "won the conference"? Probably not.

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The only question in that case is if LSU drops past Alabama, which is debatable.

LSU will certainly not drop past Arkansas, and Alabama won't either (they beat Arkansas by 24).

The voters will look at body of work and here ya go:

LSU
Best wins = Alabama (3), Oregon (4), West Virginia (23)
Loss = Arkansas (would have to be close)

Alabama
Best wins = Arkansas (6), Penn State (21 and fading fast)
Loss = LSU

Arkansas
Best wins = LSU (1)
Loss = Alabama (3) by a whopping 24 points

Arkansas' next best win is A&M, and they are now 5-5 thanks to some 4th quarter debacles all season long.

"Body of work" and "resume" works in LSU's favor the most.

LSU goes to the SEC CG. And even if we're 3rd for some unknown reason behind Alabama, we would jump them with a win over Georgia.

LSU WILL BE IN THE BCS CG if they lose to Arkansas close and then go on to beat Georgia (who will be top 10 by then).
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Lets not let biases shine through here. You can't count West Virginia as a key win for LSU and not count all three of Arkansas's victories against Top 15 ranked teams - Texas A&M (14) - Auburn (15) - South Carolina (9).