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re: Josh Pate releases his JP Power Poll
Posted on 8/21/23 at 12:57 pm to Captain Crown
Posted on 8/21/23 at 12:57 pm to Captain Crown
Pate is one of the most sane and rational people that discusses college football. There's a few question marks for us. Mainly our secondary.
1
Posted on 8/21/23 at 12:58 pm to JW6
quote:
What issues do LSU have??
No elite running back, inconsistent QB, makeshift secondary, unproven special teams... You really think LSU doesn't have any question marks?
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:02 pm to LSBoosie
quote:
could all probably make good arguments
That's fine. Make the arguments
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:02 pm to LSBoosie
quote:
No elite running back, inconsistent QB, makeshift secondary, unproven special teams... You really think LSU doesn't have any question marks?
Depth concerns? Sure.
“Makeshift?” That’s just being dramatic.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:10 pm to Party At LSU
The model is a power ranking, of how teams would do against each other on a neutral field. It looks at a number of factors, including returning production.
I'm a big fan of the guy -- he has a good national perspective, he doesn't mess with hot take bullshite and he always shows LSU love. He regularly jokes about the model. Like last year, they had Texas crazy high all season long. I mean, he was even joking about how the model has TCU over OU and nobody in their right mind would pick the Horned Frogs over the Sooners. It's just something to look at and have fun with.
I'm a big fan of the guy -- he has a good national perspective, he doesn't mess with hot take bullshite and he always shows LSU love. He regularly jokes about the model. Like last year, they had Texas crazy high all season long. I mean, he was even joking about how the model has TCU over OU and nobody in their right mind would pick the Horned Frogs over the Sooners. It's just something to look at and have fun with.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:14 pm to J2thaROC
I will say this about Texas, if you're a Texas fan, there are reasons for optimism. There have been past years that the same could be said and they just couldn't pull through. More often than not, they have fallen flat on their faces. I don't know what Texas is going to be this year, honestly, I don't care. When they play Bama, I hope they both lose. Regardless, the media is once again trying to make Texas a thing, and I'll be here to laugh if they fall short, again, again, again.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:15 pm to Captain Crown
Oregon is really the only surprise in the top 10. Pate is very high on Bo Nix though.
5-7 is about right for LSU though. Good news is they’ll get a shot at Bama and can earn a shot at UGA.
5-7 is about right for LSU though. Good news is they’ll get a shot at Bama and can earn a shot at UGA.
This post was edited on 8/21/23 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:16 pm to Veritas
quote:
Does he ever explain what the data is made up of? He seems to just always say, “this isn’t what I think, this is the model”
I don’t think he has revealed what goes into it in its entirety. But last year the model was high in Texas and he wasn’t. So it’s not perfect. He knows it.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:16 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:
Dude is a joke. Oregon??
Tell me you don’t watch Late Kick without telling me you don’t watch Late Kick. Lol it’s not his opinion. He outright disagrees with the poll at times.
ETA: Power Rating and ranking aren’t the same.
This post was edited on 8/21/23 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:23 pm to bayou85
quote:
I don’t think he has revealed what goes into it in its entirety. But last year the model was high in Texas and he wasn’t. So it’s not perfect. He knows it.
Im a big fan of JP, but not explaining the formula his model is based off of bothers me. Until he does, it just comes across as click bait and one of his talking points to add a layer to his show.
ESPN breaks down their Power Index, he should do the same.
This post was edited on 8/21/23 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:24 pm to Party At LSU
quote:
Depth concerns? Sure.
“Makeshift?” That’s just being dramatic.
Maybe a little bit. As of now our cornerbacks are two transfers, a sophomore that hasn't played much, a true freshman, and Sage Ryan playing out of position. Shea Dixon was talking this morning about how much of a concern that position is because you just don't have guys there.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:27 pm to Veritas
If you haven’t watched Late kick on YouTube, you should. You can disagree with the model, even he does. But he’s by far the most consistent, rational sports show host in all of sports. I’ve become a huge fan of his over the past two years (he was also one of the very few who praised the BK hiring)
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:32 pm to Alt26
quote:
That's fine. Make the arguments
FSU - returns a ton of talent & good QB
USC- Returns the best player in college football. Was very close to making the playoff last year.
Penn St- Return a lot of talent & good QB
Clemson - Returns a highly ranked young quarterback. Plays in a weaker conference.
All of these teams finished 2022 with an equal or better record than LSU and with a higher ranking.
This post was edited on 8/21/23 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:34 pm to Alt26
quote:
Inputting anything from 2020 and 2021 into the evaluation of the 2023 steam is foolish.
Again, I don’t think it’s a team ranking, it’s a program ranking.
It’s not how good will the 2023 lsu tigers be compared to their peers.
How does lsu as a program compare to their peers. How have they competed against their peers the last few years? How has recruiting been? How does their future trajectory look?
At least I think this is what he said in one of his videos over the summer.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:35 pm to J2thaROC
quote:
Oh? Is Texas back? Again? Yawn…
If they can't win this year's Big 12, they may as well shut down the program.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:53 pm to Captain Crown
Love Josh Pate. Dude is as objective as there is when it comes to college football. if any of you do not know who he is, treat yourselves, and listen to/watch him.
Having said that...I only slightly disagree with a few teams/spots:
-Oregon and Texas are a bit too high
-clemson is too low. the addition of G Riley as OC will be huge for them.
-Ohio St has skill positions to match anyone. QB...we will see. Defense will finally wake up with Jim Knowles taking over as DC.
-USC...if they field a junior varsity defense, they will easily be top 10. if not, they will not make the pac 10 champ game.
-8&4 will either be top 5, or they will crash and burn in glorious fashion. jimbo and bobby will win and love each other, or have a coal miners glove match.
-wisconsin and Fickell/Longo...they will be fun to watch as the season goes on.
Having said that...I only slightly disagree with a few teams/spots:
-Oregon and Texas are a bit too high
-clemson is too low. the addition of G Riley as OC will be huge for them.
-Ohio St has skill positions to match anyone. QB...we will see. Defense will finally wake up with Jim Knowles taking over as DC.
-USC...if they field a junior varsity defense, they will easily be top 10. if not, they will not make the pac 10 champ game.
-8&4 will either be top 5, or they will crash and burn in glorious fashion. jimbo and bobby will win and love each other, or have a coal miners glove match.
-wisconsin and Fickell/Longo...they will be fun to watch as the season goes on.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:57 pm to Captain Crown
Does bama even know who will be their QB and they have what, two new coordinators?? Of course the talking heads will have them ranked high.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 2:00 pm to Captain Crown
We can quibble about how good we think his model is, but this is the ranking it spit out. It's not, Oh I think Oregon and Texas are better than LSU, so let's put them above LSU. He specifically mentions how high the model has Oregon and Texas. He also points out several places where he disagrees based on his own opinion (i.e. TCU is too high for him).
Posted on 8/21/23 at 2:00 pm to LSBoosie
quote:
FSU - returns a ton of talent & good QB
Fair
But with both teams returning roughly the same amount of production what's the "tiebreaker"? Brian Kelly...176 wins. Mike Norvell...still hoping to someday beat Wake Forest, Clemson, NC St.
quote:
USC- Returns the best player in college football. Was very close to making the playoff last year.
Their defense was horrible last season. Williams is a good QB in Riley's system. But beating crappy teams in the Pac 12 doesn't exactly move the needle. Plus, LSU returns MORE offensive production
quote:
Penn St- Return a lot of talent & good QB
a good QB who has started exactly ZERO games in his college career and has thrown for 300 yards and 4 TDs...mostly in mop up duty. He may be the best QB in the history of college football. But that is all just potential. LSU's QB has started 43 games
quote:
Clemson - Returns a highly ranked young quarterback.
Whose entire production thus far consist of two game. Again, he may be great. But guys like Anthony Jennings, Brandon Harris, Jared Lee has a few great game/moments early in their careers.
quote:
Plays in a weaker conference.
Should have ZERO to do with a preseason ranking. If you want to project Clemson to have a better record than LSU because of that fact, that's fine. But don't label the list as preseason rankings. Label it as preseason projections.
quote:
All of these teams finished 2022 with an equal or better record than LSU and with a higher ranking.
Last year's rankings are meaningless. What do you have this season is really at that matters.
Of that group, really only Florida St. has a great argument. They return a ton of production and a very experienced QB. Outside of QB, SC returns less on offense than LSU. They return a bit more on defense. But when you were one of the worst defenses in the country is that really a good thing?
Ultimately, these are projections as to where the teams stand TODAY. They may end up totally wrong, but taking account of all the variables it is very difficult to rank many teams ahead of LSU.
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