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Started By
Message
If you want to let the Poche/Lange debate go
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:28 pm
I understand, and this thread isn't for you. I'm still interested in the Lange-game 1 camp's reasoning, beyond "always pitch your ace game-1.
Here's my take, and if you can get past the TLDR, I'm genuinly interested in yours.
I think Lange's stellar 2-9 performance has caused some to completely forget his first inning, or somehow feel that there was no possibility for that to happen on Sunday. Though it is an assumption, the closest assumption to reality has to be based on what actually occurred. Lange has the same 1st inning on Sunday in game 1 and gives up 3 runs. Morrison still pitches with a lead throughout the game and we lose 3-1. The other two runs scored were on a guy in the 8th who wouldn't have even pitched had it been a closer game-I think we can agree on that. Even with those 2 runs it's a tie to the end of 9, with Lange no longer a factor. We got away with, and survived Lange's 1st inning 3-spot on Tuesday, because the opposing pitcher was not Morrison-caliber, and the bats were just better.
Continuing... Poche is in an elimination game on Tuesday. Again an assumption, but the closest thing to reality to assume, is that he has the same outing he actually had on Sunday. He has to get pulled two runs sooner, or we tie/lose that game too, based on and abbreviated Poche outing alone. If we assume our relievers have their same outing as actually occured and give up the additinal 4 runs, we lose that way too, despite lesser opposing pitching who we get 5 runs out of.
If Lange had pitched a CG shutout, I could see the hindsight that he should have been the Sunday guy. You could assume a 1-0 win, and a more relaxed outing for Poche in game 2, though it would have been Vandy in this scenario. Win 1 and lose 2, we're exactly where we are now. But you can't change the fact that Lange gave up 3 runs in the first, and we could only get 1 run on Morrison and their closer in all but one inning(8th). To assume anything else is a much greater assumption than these stated because there's no actual or relevant results to base that off of. It's as close to fact as you can get, that 1 run is all we score Sunday with Morrison/closer.
I agree conventional wisdom is to start your ace in game one. 7/8 teams did. But remember, that only worked for 4 of those 7. Had we done it, it would have been 4 of 8. The other 3 who pitched their aces (albeit not our Lange) lost too, and went to the loser's bracket without their ace. 2 of them already went home before the current round (Miami is this round). Remember too, that 6/8 teams also scored more than 1 run on opposing starting pitching. We were on the wrong side of that equation, which made our chances next to zero, even with Lange. Lange's current ERA (if internet source is correct) is 0.91. It's another leaping assumption(though certainly possible) that he does better than his actual ERA to produce a 1-0 win Sunday against a good TCU team.
With the actual events that happened in the two games, which again is the most solid basis for any assumptions on what these two pitchers had in them imo, the fact that we're still in it is solely because we pitched Poche Sunday when we couldn't score runs, and had Lange available to win the only winnable game (based on the bats) on Tuesday. It would have been a much bigger risk to try to win with Poche in an elimination game.
When Poche was announced, 90% here liked the decision, saw it as playing to win the tournament and not just one game. Most liked the ballsy move and could readily rationalize the decision, especially feeling like Lange only had two CWS outings in him regardless of outcomes. Now it seems that the majority have swung the other way. But all I hear is "you always start your ace" as the reason. Starting our ace could very well have helped our bats, in theory. But enough to overcome Lange's 3-spot in the first inning? I doubt it.
There's been so many threads of mixed content, it's hard to find everyone's reason for which side they fall on. If you've read this far, and have thought-out reasoning beyond 'always start your ace" I'd like to hear it. And if there's anything in my resoning that's less reasonable, highlight that too
Here's my take, and if you can get past the TLDR, I'm genuinly interested in yours.
I think Lange's stellar 2-9 performance has caused some to completely forget his first inning, or somehow feel that there was no possibility for that to happen on Sunday. Though it is an assumption, the closest assumption to reality has to be based on what actually occurred. Lange has the same 1st inning on Sunday in game 1 and gives up 3 runs. Morrison still pitches with a lead throughout the game and we lose 3-1. The other two runs scored were on a guy in the 8th who wouldn't have even pitched had it been a closer game-I think we can agree on that. Even with those 2 runs it's a tie to the end of 9, with Lange no longer a factor. We got away with, and survived Lange's 1st inning 3-spot on Tuesday, because the opposing pitcher was not Morrison-caliber, and the bats were just better.
Continuing... Poche is in an elimination game on Tuesday. Again an assumption, but the closest thing to reality to assume, is that he has the same outing he actually had on Sunday. He has to get pulled two runs sooner, or we tie/lose that game too, based on and abbreviated Poche outing alone. If we assume our relievers have their same outing as actually occured and give up the additinal 4 runs, we lose that way too, despite lesser opposing pitching who we get 5 runs out of.
If Lange had pitched a CG shutout, I could see the hindsight that he should have been the Sunday guy. You could assume a 1-0 win, and a more relaxed outing for Poche in game 2, though it would have been Vandy in this scenario. Win 1 and lose 2, we're exactly where we are now. But you can't change the fact that Lange gave up 3 runs in the first, and we could only get 1 run on Morrison and their closer in all but one inning(8th). To assume anything else is a much greater assumption than these stated because there's no actual or relevant results to base that off of. It's as close to fact as you can get, that 1 run is all we score Sunday with Morrison/closer.
I agree conventional wisdom is to start your ace in game one. 7/8 teams did. But remember, that only worked for 4 of those 7. Had we done it, it would have been 4 of 8. The other 3 who pitched their aces (albeit not our Lange) lost too, and went to the loser's bracket without their ace. 2 of them already went home before the current round (Miami is this round). Remember too, that 6/8 teams also scored more than 1 run on opposing starting pitching. We were on the wrong side of that equation, which made our chances next to zero, even with Lange. Lange's current ERA (if internet source is correct) is 0.91. It's another leaping assumption(though certainly possible) that he does better than his actual ERA to produce a 1-0 win Sunday against a good TCU team.
With the actual events that happened in the two games, which again is the most solid basis for any assumptions on what these two pitchers had in them imo, the fact that we're still in it is solely because we pitched Poche Sunday when we couldn't score runs, and had Lange available to win the only winnable game (based on the bats) on Tuesday. It would have been a much bigger risk to try to win with Poche in an elimination game.
When Poche was announced, 90% here liked the decision, saw it as playing to win the tournament and not just one game. Most liked the ballsy move and could readily rationalize the decision, especially feeling like Lange only had two CWS outings in him regardless of outcomes. Now it seems that the majority have swung the other way. But all I hear is "you always start your ace" as the reason. Starting our ace could very well have helped our bats, in theory. But enough to overcome Lange's 3-spot in the first inning? I doubt it.
There's been so many threads of mixed content, it's hard to find everyone's reason for which side they fall on. If you've read this far, and have thought-out reasoning beyond 'always start your ace" I'd like to hear it. And if there's anything in my resoning that's less reasonable, highlight that too
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:30 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
quote:
I'm still interested in the Lange-game 1 camp's reasoning, beyond "always pitch your ace game-1.
He'll be ready to go again a day earlier.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:30 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
TLDC
We are on Game 3. Leave it alone.
We are on Game 3. Leave it alone.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:31 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
always start your ace. this is omaha. not the place to be cute.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:36 pm to monsterballads
quote:
not the place to be cute
"cute" is why we're still here
same old non-explanation
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:38 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
I like your analysis Striped Bass. Of course this is the rant and the amount of thought that went into what you stated is often overlooked by the Rant. We'll see how things play out from here.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:54 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
I have a problem with the consensus that getting a win in game 1 is not important.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:59 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
quote:
"always pitch your ace game-1.
Pretty much could have stopped there.
I'll throw you a bone, do the research and get back to us. But please, make it a shorter response.
Barring injury, personal issues, etc....
Tell me the last time a team's best pitcher didn't start the world series, provided they had sufficient rest/time to set lineup.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 2:59 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
quote:
Starting our ace could very well have helped our bats, in theory. But enough to overcome Lange's 3-spot in the first inning? I doubt it.
I missed where Lange gave up 3 runs to TCU. Have to rewind the tape.
Your entire long arse post dwells on the fact that he gave up 3 runs to a completely different team that plays a completely different style of baseball.
quote:
Had we done it, it would have been 4 of 8.
So now we lost had we started Lange?
I give up there is so much horse shite and guessing going on in your post its worthless.
quote:
When Poche was announced, 90% here liked the decision, saw it as playing to win the tournament and not just one game
Well I was certainly in the 10% then.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:02 pm to elprez00
quote:
I have a problem with the consensus that getting a win in game 1 is not important.
100% agreed, I'm not in that consensus. My point is that if Lange gave up 3 in the 1st on Sunday against TCU, we don't get a win on Sunday just the same. Not on that day, not with 1 run on their starter. Errors were practically inconsequential due to the offensive output.
The decision to throw Poche Sunday was not conceding game one imo. It was a calculated, slight risk. With Poche's 1-3, and Lange's 2-9, we win 1-0. Too bad it doesn't work that way
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:03 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
If ifs were @zs holes
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:05 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
The errors deflated the team......consequence
Remember when our fullback fumbled against Bama early in the game on the goal line. Samething
Remember when our fullback fumbled against Bama early in the game on the goal line. Samething
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:05 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
quote:
Morrison still pitches with a lead throughout the game and we lose 3-1.
The guy (Morrison) who gave up 7 runs on 7 hits in 3.1 innings to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tourney.
Sorry for going off tangent here, but that's what has been eating at my arse.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:06 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
quote:
so much horse shite and guessing going on in your post
you're right about that. but like i stated it's based on actual performances, albeit in opposite games. That's the closest thing to actual that we have.
Still waiting for counter-reasoning
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:06 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
quote:
The guy (Morrison) who gave up 7 runs on 7 hits in 3.1 innings to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tourney
that's on the bats
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:07 pm to elprez00
quote:link to someone who said this?
problem with the consensus that getting a win in game 1 is not important.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:07 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
quote:
My point is that if Lange gave up 3 in the 1st on Sunday against TCU, we don't get a win on Sunday just the same
I mean why stop there. If Lange gave up 1 run in the 1st and 4 runs in the 9th on Saturday and ate Mexican then we might have gone 2 and Que.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 3:08 pm to Tiger-Striped-Bass
I'll read the final draft when your memoirs are published.
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