re: CBS discusses the outcome of a 3-way tie between LSU, Bama and Arky

Look, all we need is for Arkansas to finish 3rd of the 3 teams. The human polls would likely be REALLY close; teams separated by a few votes. All teams would have a case and LSU/Bama probably have the best cases (better SOS and MOV). But lets assume for arguments sake LSU finishes a 3rd behind Bama and Arkansas in the HUMAN POLLS.

Well Arkansas' computer ranking is relative crap. They beat a 5-5 A&M team OOC compared to say Oregon and WVU for LSU. That means Arky will have by far the worst computer score. In fact, other teams (like Oregon) may wedge their way in between LSU/Bama and Arkansas making things worse for the Hogs.

Arkansas computer ranking should be more than enough to anchor them out the discussion, leaving LSU and Bama (in nor particular order). LSU goes by virtue of their win Tuscaloosa.

If the scenario plays out the way that you're suggesting, then it may get a bit stickier than you may think. Alabama's computer rankings are going to slip from now until the end as their quality win against PSU loses its luster as they lose their final 2 games. The Tide will be left with only 3 wins against teams with winning records, and only 1 win against a team that will finish in the top 25 (Arkansas).

Also, as bad as A&M actually is this season, you may be surprised to see how they're viewed by the computers. I believe I have seen them in the top 30 of a computer ranking recently. i know that sounds absurd, but some (if not all) of the computer rankings take in to account the strength of opponent and opponent's opponents. A&M has played a ridiculous schedule in the eyes of the computers and so have many of their opponents.

But yeah, the computers absolutely love the Big 12 teams for some reason that i can't really figure out. I suppose that they've had some decent OOC wins this season that the whole conference benefits from due to their round robin scheduling.

Rank the following 11-1 teams 1-2-3 based on the following resumes:


Alabama 11-1 (7-1)
vs Kent State W 48-7
@ #23 Penn State W 27-11
vs North Texas W 41-0
vs #14 Arkansas W 38-14
@ #12 Florida W 38-10
vs Vanderbilt W 34-0
@ Ole Miss W 52-7
vs Tennessee W 37-6
vs #1 LSU L 9-6 OT
@ Mississippi State W 24-7
vs Georgia Southern W 47-0
@ #20 Auburn W 38-13

Arkansas 11-1 (7-1)
vs Missouri State W 51-7
vs New Mexico W 52-3
vs Troy W 38-28
@ #3 Alabama L 38-14
vs #14 Texas A&M* W 42-38
vs #15 Auburn W 38-14
@ Ole Miss W 29-24
@ Vanderbilt W 31-28
vs #9 South Carolina W 44-28
vs Tennessee W 49-7
vs Mississippi State W 27-10
@ #1 LSU W 31-27

LSU 11-1 (7-1)
vs #3 Oregon* W 40-27
vs Northwestern State W 49-3
@ #25 Mississippi State W 19-6
@ #16 West Virginia W 47-21
vs Kentucky W 35-7
vs #17 Florida W 41-11
@ Tennessee W 38-7
vs #20 Auburn W 45-10
@ #2 Alabama W 9-6 OT
vs Western Kentucky W 42-9
@ Ole Miss W 36-14
vs #8 Arkansas L 31-27

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The combined records of the FBS opponents for all 12 SEC schools: (as of 11-6-11)
Tennessee: 47-23 (.671)
LSU: 46-26 (.639)
Ole Miss: 46-26 (.639)
Vanderbilt: 44-28 (.611)
Alabama: 43-29 (.597)
Auburn: 47-32 (.595)
Mississippi State: 41-31 (.569)
Kentucky: 41-32 (.562)
South Carolina: 45-36 (.555)
Florida: 43-37 (.538)
Georgia: 38-33 (.535)
Arkansas: 34-37 (.479)

Speaking of Arkansas, the Hogs have faced the easiest schedule in the SEC, according to the combined records of their opponents. The Hogs’ FBS foes are a combined 34-37 (.479).

Of Arkansas’ eight FBS opponents to this point, four currently have losing records.

Nonetheless, Arkansas is one of only three SEC teams (along with Alabama and LSU) that has beaten three or more nationally-ranked opponents this season. The Hogs own wins over Texas A&M, Auburn and South Carolina. All three teams were ranked in the AP poll at the time of the game.

No. 1 LSU, coming off its 9-6 overtime win at Alabama, owns six victories over nationally-ranked foes, including two over top 5 teams.

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Based on these resumes, a reasonable person should come to the following conclusions:

1. LSU easily has the best overall resume, winning vs Oregon, @ West Virginia, and @ Alabama. LSU dominated 10 of the 12 teams it faced. LSU should be ranked the highest of the three teams

2. Alabama throttled Arkansas, and played a tougher schedule than the Hogs, winning @ Penn State. Alabama dominated 11 of the 12 teams it faced. Alabama should be ranked 2nd highest of the three teams

3. Arkansas, by default, should be ranked 3rd highest of the three teams. Arkanasas dominated 5 of the 12 teams it faced and is the only team of the 3 that struggled to win a few games.

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But even if we lose to Arkansas we still go to sec champ? Why Wouldnt the first tie breaker be head to head?

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If Arkansas beats LSU, all three teams would be 11-1 and 7-1 in SEC play (Bama, LSU, Arkansas). All 3 teams would have identical records and would have all beaten each other (Bama killed Arky, LSU beat Bama, Arky beat LSU).

It would go by head-to-head of the two highest ranked BCS teams...which will likely be LSU and Alabama. Thus sending LSU to the SECCG.

Of course we are all assuming 3 things here: LSU beats Ole Miss, Arky beats MissSt, Alabama beats Auburn.

If Arky loses to MissSt, LSU wins the West. If Alabama loses to Auburn and Arky beats LSU, Arky wins the West.

Who would be undefeated at home if Arkansas beats LSU? Arkansas would. LSU plays Arkansas at HOME. If they lose that game then how are they better. LSU played Oregon and i'll giveyou that. WV is garbage and wouldn't stay within 3 touchdowns of TAMU. Neither would Penn st and they will lose their next 2 games and AM will win out. LSU needs to be praying OU or Oregon don't trip up. You guys need Arkansas as far away in the BCS as they can get. If Arkansas is #4 or maybe 5 then LSU has no chance to stay ahead. Absolutely 0% chance to stay ahead.

Who got crushed by Alabama in the same building in which LSU beat Alabama?

Arkansas fans are very cute. LSU isn't Vandy or Ole Miss.

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Got crushed you're right. So LSU should have no problem.

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I agree.

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finally LSU has a better team for the first time in 5 years.

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I'm sorry. But even if we lose to Arkansas we still go to sec champ? Why Wouldnt the first tie breaker be head to head?

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We are 10-0 (7-0) and #1. Bama is 9-1 (6-1) and #3. Arky is 9-1 (6-1) and a distant #5.

An Arky victory would still keep them behind Bama, giving them no shot in the tiebreaker. Bama's only hope is that Arky passes us. While more likely, it is still unlikely without a complete butt kicking by them.

Thus, the extremely likely scenario is Bama-LSU-Arky or LSU-Bama-Arky. Either of those send LSU to Atlanta.

Of course, we'll be 12-0, so this is all a moot point.

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Arkansas has no shot at the SEC title game. Sorry pal. : /

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Pray during the Iron Bowl and beat LSU. That's it IMO.