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re: Microsoft: “We can spend Sony out of business…”

Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:24 pm to
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
23158 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:24 pm to
Ok indulge me then if you would I have always liked and respected you as a poster here on the poli board and tv board. Maybe it’s beyond the scope of the thread but do you have any comment on the litany of things I’ve posted outside of anything document related? Primarily as it boils down to the title of this thread, how exactly money helps them at all if the studios won’t let them buy them and even then their track record is terrible with bought studios. Perhaps address all the things I’ve mentioned supported by data and analytics?

Maybe it is outside of the scope of this thread so feel free to just ignore if you wish but I’m genuinely curious in your opinion if you’d indulge me
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
23158 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:26 pm to
I am obviously not a Xbox fan but I’m totally in agreement with y’all that are. There is not good reason to block the sale of Activision as long as Xbox keeps to their word not to make CoD exclusive and they even plan to invest heavily in cloud gaming which is desperately needed because right now it blows
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
51064 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

There is not good reason to block the sale of Activision as long as Xbox keeps to their word not to make CoD exclusive


Phil Spencer verified this under oath. It just isn't going to happen.

The sides have wrapped their questioning. Closing arguments start at 2:30 PST.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
51064 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

Primarily as it boils down to the title of this thread, how exactly money helps them at all if the studios won’t let them buy them and even then their track record is terrible with bought studios. Perhaps address all the things I’ve mentioned supported by data and analytics?


Honestly, I just don't know how you're coming to this conclusion. Many publishers have given statements under oath that they love working with MS/XBox. The only major gaming company to claim otherwise has been Sony, which seems to be obviously related to wanting to block this deal. Google has also made weak attempts to blame MS for the death of Stadia, but I doubt any gamers believe that.
Posted by finchmeister08
Member since Mar 2011
35932 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

Seems to fully support Microsoft's statements that they don't think making COD exclusive would be profitable.



you think +2 million a year is a lot?


plus, isn't this whole acquisition centered around increasing Game Pass subscribers?
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
23158 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:43 pm to
Primarily I’m coming to the concluding based off two things. Well more than 2 but two that actually matter the most

1) Companies say things all the time. Square told Nintendo they had FF7. I just used that because it’s a famous example I know of but I am sure I could google 100 more. Their actions for the past almost 3 years since the launch of this generation aren’t in alignment with anything they say. Why wouldn’t they hedge their bets and not insult Microsoft publicly? The truth is the numbers don’t lie. Compared to PS5 Xbox is a dying platform that cannot survive on game pass this is obvious now. They absolutely need the types of 70-90$ high budget big anticipation games Sony shits out for many reasons 2 being platform interest to even be there at all and second is money.

2) Microsoft has an absolutely abysmal record of producing 1st party titles going back to the launch of Xbox one. Don’t twist my words it isn’t like they haven’t ever put out one game worth playing but in aggregate compared to their only real competitor Sony they fricking suck. An example here is Halo. One of the biggest games and brands in the world which should’ve been an Xbox exclusive cash cow for time immortal. Where is it now? It’s a dead brand and Xbox has completely gutted the studio charged with shepherding it. We can’t ignore the data that’s been coming for years now. Game pass doesn’t sell an Xbox to anyone. God of war, Final Fantasy, Spider Man and so many more ship absolute metric frick tons or ps5s. Now it seems they’re counting in Starfield to be a savior of sorts but it will be quickly upstaged and outsold by rebirth almost without a doubt based on the quote larger instal base ps5 has over Xbox, the roaring suxesss of ff16, and the enduring love and nostalgia people up to their 50s feel for ff7
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
51064 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

plus, isn't this whole acquisition centered around increasing Game Pass subscribers?


No. Their primary motivation is to open their own app store. Mobile gaming.
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 1:49 pm
Posted by finchmeister08
Member since Mar 2011
35932 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Their primary motivation is to open their own app store.



and what product do you think they're going to push with their own app store?




"Now introducing.... GAME PASS MOBILE!!! A brand new subscription service that allows you to play all of your favorite mobile games on any mobile device for a monthly fee of $9.99 a month!

Play the all new Call of Duty: Warzone Mobile game that puts you up against 150 other mobile players. Subscribing to Game Pass Mobile will allow you to take advantage of in-store discounts for weapon blueprints and operator skins along with tier skips for the seasonal battle pass.

Already a Game Pass subscriber on Xbox or PC? Game Pass Mobile is included FREE!!! With the Game Pass Mobile app, you can take your Xbox/PC with you wherever you go!!! You can play the all new Call of Duty (2024), Diablo 4, or even the newly released Fall Out game, on the go exclusively on Game Pass Mobile App.

Are you ready for Game Pass Mobile? SUBSCRIBE TODAY!!!"



Also, you claim to be anti-"goverment overreach", but I bet you're over cooming all over EU's Digital Market Act. Too bad Microsoft couldn't get their own mobile phone platform to take off. Now they have to lobby politicians to allow competitors to be on their own platforms.
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 2:36 pm
Posted by dgnx6
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
69214 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

Console loyalty is so weird


Not really.

I had a ps1 then a ps2 so i just kept with it and preferred the controller. no interest in ever purchasing an xbox, id just pc game at that point.

Not that i have anything against microsoft and xbox, its just a preference and being a loyal customer to a product i like.
Posted by crash1211
Houma
Member since May 2008
3150 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

they were never able to overcome the errors of the messaging of that launch.


That' how it went with me. I never did own Xbox in that generation. I've had both in each generation before, and I have both now. I only have one now because my son wanted it.
I usually wait to buy the 2ed console after a couple of years though.
Posted by sicboy
Because Awesome
Member since Nov 2010
77649 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 5:24 pm to
closing arguments

quote:

FTC is up first.FTC’s first opening argument:

Last Thursday, we promised the court the evidence in this hearing would show at the Federal Trade Commission has raised substantial questions about this proposed transaction. Substantial questions about whether this transaction would cause anti competitive effects. All the evidence is showing, your honor, that Call of Duty and triple-A games in particular drive games. The majority driver by far the synergies from Microsoft comes from driving users to engage and join Game Pass, because they understand the value of this content.

Judge Corley wants to know which Bethesda game is comparable to Call of Duty? FTC says The Elder Scrolls. FTC also argues Call of Duty is “so exceptionally valuable and so unique.”


quote:

Would we be here if Sony had a deal with Microsoft?

Judge Corley wants to know what the harm to consumers is if the merger goes ahead and whether we’d be here if Sony had a deal with Microsoft for Call of Duty.

FTC: If the merger goes forward and if you believe that Microsoft has the incentive to advantage its own platform. There will be content, there will be timing issues, there will be exclusivity that benefits Xbox and not the PlayStation.

Judge Corley: Aren’t we just talking about Call of Duty? Sony just acquired another publisher and they make a lot of stuff exclusive. You’ve told me this has really always been about Call of Duty, how’s that going to drive?

Judge Corley: If Sony had a deal with Microsoft for Call of Duty, would we be here?

FTC: I think we would have still had an investigation.

Judge Corley: That’s good, but here on a preliminary injunction.

FTC: We would be here because of concerns about the other markets.

Judge Corley: Outside the console market, ok that’s fair.



quote:

Judge Corley is questioning the FTC’s evidence.Judge Corley says Dr. Bailey, who testified for Microsoft, “actually looked at real world data” and she wants to know what the FTC’s witness, Dr. Lee, looked at.

Judge Corley references that 62 percent of all PlayStation owners don’t play Call of Duty at all. “They’re not going to miss it, the foreclosure won’t affect them.”

Judge Corley: How do you decide that Call of Duty is so important to them?

The FTC struggles to respond and references Jim Ryan’s testimony instead of answering the question related to Dr. Lee’s testimony. “That’s not what I asked,” says Judge Corley.

Judge Corley is really fixated on Call of Duty here. Another FTC lawyer has stepped in to try and help explain.


quote:

A new FTC lawyer is explaining Call of Duty exclusivity.New FTC lawyer tries to bring its closing argument back on track.

“What’s tricky about this case is that you have to look at the specific data for each game,” he argues. Judge Corley wants to know what it is about Call of Duty that they’d abandon their console of choice and buy an Xbox?

FTC: If someone is spending $70 on Call of Duty they likely value that much more. Once they lose that because they no longer have access to the game on the platform they have to make a choice.

The FTC argues they choices are forgo the game or maybe play it on another console they might own if they happen to have an Xbox or they’ll have to go buy an Xbox. “This results in a share shift to Xbox,” says the FTC.

Judge Corley wants to know how you calculate the number of people would switch to Xbox, so Microsoft would have the economic incentive to foreclose:

Judge Corley: If everyone would give up on Call of Duty they don’t have the incentive. So how do you figure out the number of people who give up vs. buying an Xbox?

FTC: I’m not an economist again, but that’s based on looking at the behavior of players, based on potential past exclusivity and looking also at the sales behavior of probability.



quote:

A third FTC lawyer tries to explain Xbox switching.We now have a third FTC lawyer trying to explain how many people will convert to Xbox if Microsoft withheld Call of Duty.

It feels like Microsoft’s witness, Dr. Bailey, offered an easy to understand argument for Judge Corley. Dr. Lee’s testimony wasn’t very clear for us to follow and I think that’s coming through with Judge Corley’s questioning here. But this is a complicated case with both sides arguing about different data to try and prove their points.


quote:

We’re stuck here on a basic question.Judge Corley wants to know some basics, whether Dr. Lee’s report was based on telemetry real data of how people play Call of Duty:

My question is about this foreclosure model. Because that’s important to MS having the incentive. That’s a mathematical incentive. That’s the nub of it.

A lot of people buy games and they play them once or twice and then never play them again. I guess I’m trying to figure out, I’m looking at the data that Dr. Bailey said and a lot of people buy it and don’t play it very much.

Is what [Dr. Lee] is seeing based on the number of hours played?


The FTC is now referencing confidential data and struggling to answer the question clearly.

Microsoft’s lawyer cuts in and says the company asked Dr. Lee about his calculations. “We don’t have any answers,” says Microsoft’s lawyer.


Posted by sicboy
Because Awesome
Member since Nov 2010
77649 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 5:26 pm to
Preference is one thing. Actively cheering for the other console to fail is another.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
51064 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

Judge Corley: how big is the market of the people that care so much that they would switch and buy an Xbox they wouldn't otherwise buy?

FTC: it's not about just switching, the harm to the PS person and they have CoD and there's some new character and that's not an Xbox.


FTC is literally arguing that XBox might someday do something that Sony is currently actively doing.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
51064 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 5:43 pm to
quote:

and what product do you think they're going to push with their own app store?


Game Pass is already available on mobile phones. You don't know what you're talking about.

They want to compete with Google's app store and Apple's app store. MS would go from less than a % of the mobile gaming market to about 4% of the mobile gaming market with this purchase. This was confirmed during the trial. The strategy they're going for is advertising their new app store in the popular games they will gain with this purchase (i.e. Candy Crush).
Posted by finchmeister08
Member since Mar 2011
35932 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 6:03 pm to
quote:

Game Pass is already available on mobile phones. You don't know what you're talking about.


There is no incentive to use Game Pass currently on your phone. It’s no different than the PlayStation Store app that Sony provides. You can buy and download games to your Xbox/PC via your phone and message your friends. Whoopty-doo.

You’re either being really naive or trolling at this point. You’re like UltimateHog and his obsession with AMD.


I can see Ol’ Phil changing course shortly after acquisition, and making every ABK title Microsoft exclusives. Then he gets called back to court to explain himself:

“Your Honor, I know what I said and what we committed to Sony and Nintendo, but we reran the numbers and we can make it work with these games being exclusive to our company.”
Posted by sicboy
Because Awesome
Member since Nov 2010
77649 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

Why isn’t the PC an alternative to Xbox?Judge Corley wants to know about consumer choice, because you can play a lot of Xbox Series X games on PC.

Judge Corley: What if they have a PC? Why isn’t everybody, particularly in 2023, likely to own a PC? So they don’t have to buy one.

FTC: The gaming PC is a special kind of PC, it’s a run of the mill PC.

Judge Corley: Maybe I’m biased in the world I’m living in... during the pandemic. Nobody did it on a bargain basement PC. Everybody had a $1,000 or $1,500 PC.

Judge Corley: Why wouldn’t being able to play on PC have downward pressure on the Xbox? If you raise [a console] to $1,000?

FTC: For any given market where we assume the price increases fast then... almost anything becomes a substitute.

The FTC says it has seen no evidence that Microsoft is benchmarking the PC against an Xbox. The FTC could easily explain this to Judge Corley that a gaming PC requires a dedicated GPU to play Call of Duty, significantly increasing the price and complexity compared to the PCs people typically have at home or may have purchased during the pandemic.

The FTC could also argue and easily cite data that shows the vast majority of PC sales are laptops, which don’t have the ability to play games like Call of Duty. Instead, they’re going around in circles on basic questions where Judge Corley is trying to understand simple stuff.

It’s almost as if the FTC doesn’t understand the gaming market it’s trying to define.


quote:

Nintendo Switch argument time.I knew the Nintendo Switch would come back to haunt us once again.
Judge Corley: Why is the Xbox Series S priced at $299?

The FTC calls back to Xbox CFO Tim Stuart and the evidence where Microsoft’s Xbox Series S strategy price was to “get an entry level gen 9 system.” He says:

“When they were pricing it [at launch]... they didn’t say let’s try and triangulate with the Switch. Even if your honor there is some substitution on the Xbox Series S... we don’t think it’s enough to defeat the market we’ve put forward.”

Microsoft’s lawyer cuts in and says that Judge Corley “gets it” and that the $299 price shows they compete when a consumer is making a choice in a store like Best Buy.

The FTC then argues that “you can play video games on your phone, you can play a video game on the console,” but that they’re different. FTC once again says Microsoft didn’t look at Switch pricing during launch.

Microsoft’s lawyer fires back that “they both can do the same thing... but they’re also pricing off what’s in the market to look like it’s an alternative.” Microsoft cites Dr. Bailey’s charts that show games like Fortnite, Apex Legends, Rocket League, and other top games are available on both the Nintendo Switch and Xbox.


quote:

Microsoft’s lawyer tries to correct the FTC and makes an Elder Scrolls mistake.If there’s one rule I’ve learned as a journalist it’s never correct someone’s mistake with a mistake of your own.

Microsoft’s lawyer: Could I clarify one issue that council raised with you, when you were asking about Zenimax and asked him to find a game that was most similar to Xbox, he mentioned Elder Scrolls. That is incorrect. There are two Elder Scrolls games, one is online called Elder Scrolls Online — that is a multiplayer game, it is on PlayStation today. He’s talking about Elder Scrolls 16, that is projected for release in 2026 as a single-player game.

Elder Scrolls 16?! Obviously Microsoft’s lawyer means Elder Scrolls 6, but also... 2026?! You heard it here first, even if it’s really unlikely it’s coming in 2026.


quote:

“All this for a shooter video game?”

Judge Corley is still focused on Call of Duty:

Judge Corley: All of this is for a shooter video game? For this one game?

FTC: I completely understand where you’re coming from. On the other hand, our responsibility over on this side of the room and the government is not to make a value judgment about the market is to protect competition in the market.

Judge Corley: It’s the game but of the people that care so much that they would actually switch to an Xbox that they wouldn’t otherwise?

FTC: It’s not about just switching... the harm to the PlayStation person who has Call of Duty is when they wake up after this deal closes and some new character is only on Xbox. It’s not that the person is going to switch, it’s that person’s experience as the value that they paid for, has been degraded in some way

Judge Corley then asks what the FTC says to PlayStation chief Jim Ryan saying “there’s nothing anti-competitive to making ‘Star-whatever’ [Starfield] exclusive?” The FTC doesn’t know the basis of why Ryan was upset. “Because he does the same thing,” says Judge Corley.


quote:

“It’s not the harm to Sony, it’s the harm to consumers.” It’s up to the FTC to argue their case here and it’s mainly been a single Microsoft lawyer arguing against a number of FTC lawyers.

Both sides have now moved onto legal arguments and citing previous cases. Microsoft argues that it’s all about Call of Duty at the core and Microsoft’s deals completely address the concerns.

Microsoft’s lawyer points to Final Fantasy VI and how Microsoft “just lost part of that game,” or Minecraft where Sony held back devkits:

If they can’t figure out what the harm is, so they’re turning to you or us and saying you should figure it out because it’s ‘too hard for us’

Microsoft’s lawyer argues that game exclusives are happening all the time:

No witness said there was going to be partial foreclosure. No one said that no one had any examples of it. And if it’s the partial exclusivity, as you said, and as Mr. Nadella said I thought the best. That’s the world we live in because Sony’s the market leader, and that’s what they do. There are partial, if that’s what they want to call partial foreclosures, that’s happening all the time with these partial exclusivity timed exclusivity arrangements, and that is part of competition is not part of anti competitive behavior.

The FTC points to evidence from Jim Ryan’s testimony about partial foreclosure and “the harms, for example to Sony, in terms of optimization,” but Judge Corley wants to know where the harm is. “It’s not the harm to Sony, it’s the harm to consumers.”


Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
51064 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 7:50 pm to
quote:

There is no incentive to use Game Pass currently on your phone. It’s no different than the PlayStation Store app that Sony provides. You can buy and download games to your Xbox/PC via your phone and message your friends. Whoopty-doo.


Did you really not know you can play games on your phone through the Game Pass app?

quote:

You’re either being really naive or trolling at this point. You’re like UltimateHog and his obsession with AMD.


Just dripping with irony.

quote:

I can see Ol’ Phil changing course shortly after acquisition, and making every ABK title Microsoft exclusives.


MS has only committed to making CoD available on PS. Has made no such commitment for any other titles.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
51064 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 7:56 pm to
quote:

The FTC points to evidence from Jim Ryan’s testimony about partial foreclosure and “the harms, for example to Sony, in terms of optimization,” but Judge Corley wants to know where the harm is. “It’s not the harm to Sony, it’s the harm to consumers.”


This is so nonsensical. Using examples that Sony actually employs as evidence against the deal while citing Jim Ryan.
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 8:07 pm
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