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Andrew Luck 4th Overall?
Posted on 8/11/15 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 8/11/15 at 12:29 pm
10 man, 0.5PPR Snake Draft League
So ordinarily I wouldn't even consider this, but our league commissioner just changed the league scoring settings to 6 points for passing TD's and a 5 point bonus for 400+ yard passing games (Luck was 350+ in 7 games last year).
I know for a fact that he won't be there in round 2 for me, but would taking him at #4 overall be too much of a reach. I would basically be passing on Antonio Brown/Eddie Lacy/Jamaal Charles most likely one of those guys...
I have a friend that says I should do it. I am usually the guy that takes a Phillip Rivers in the 9th or 10th and doesnt really worry about taking one early... With the scoring system change should I feel differently about waiting for a QB?
Thanks in advance for your input.
So ordinarily I wouldn't even consider this, but our league commissioner just changed the league scoring settings to 6 points for passing TD's and a 5 point bonus for 400+ yard passing games (Luck was 350+ in 7 games last year).
I know for a fact that he won't be there in round 2 for me, but would taking him at #4 overall be too much of a reach. I would basically be passing on Antonio Brown/Eddie Lacy/Jamaal Charles most likely one of those guys...
I have a friend that says I should do it. I am usually the guy that takes a Phillip Rivers in the 9th or 10th and doesnt really worry about taking one early... With the scoring system change should I feel differently about waiting for a QB?
Thanks in advance for your input.
9
Posted on 8/11/15 at 12:34 pm to 3andOut
no
Posted on 8/11/15 at 2:58 pm to 3andOut
I think there's something to be said for grabbing an elite QB in a 10 team league due to how shallow the format plays...but 4 is too early IMO.
I would take an elite RB or Brown there.
I would take an elite RB or Brown there.
Posted on 8/11/15 at 3:08 pm to 3andOut
10 team league is very forgiving. Do it if you want. I think he'll be the overall scoring leader this year
Posted on 8/11/15 at 4:26 pm to Lester Earl
I'd advise against doing it, unless it's a 2 QB league.
The dropoff at ranks 10-12 for both RB and WR in your format this year would make me feel the need to grab one of those spots, likely a RB, at 4.
Now, if you think he would be there at 9 or 10 if you passed on him at 4, you could trade down to get him, as the RBs will be a bit less attractive at the end of the 1st round. Not by much, but you wouldn't be passing on Lacy/Peterson/Charles at 4 if you took Luck. You could take Luck and your choice of probably Forte/Dez/Demaryius/Beckham/Lynch with your first 2 picks.
The dropoff at ranks 10-12 for both RB and WR in your format this year would make me feel the need to grab one of those spots, likely a RB, at 4.
Now, if you think he would be there at 9 or 10 if you passed on him at 4, you could trade down to get him, as the RBs will be a bit less attractive at the end of the 1st round. Not by much, but you wouldn't be passing on Lacy/Peterson/Charles at 4 if you took Luck. You could take Luck and your choice of probably Forte/Dez/Demaryius/Beckham/Lynch with your first 2 picks.
Posted on 8/12/15 at 9:49 am to 3andOut
QBs go early in my league. 6 point TD. Luck will be gone by 4th pick.
I've only been playing fantasy for 2 years.
First year championship game teams had Rodgers VS. Brees.
Second year was Peyton VS. Luck.
I was in both championship games. Rodgers and Luck. I lost both games.
With that said, I never took either one of them in the first round. I don't think I can do it. I'll find another underrated gem this year.
I've only been playing fantasy for 2 years.
First year championship game teams had Rodgers VS. Brees.
Second year was Peyton VS. Luck.
I was in both championship games. Rodgers and Luck. I lost both games.
With that said, I never took either one of them in the first round. I don't think I can do it. I'll find another underrated gem this year.
Posted on 8/12/15 at 10:21 am to 3andOut
In a 10 team league I would possibly consider it.. You still will have the #17 and #24 overall picks to lock up a stud RB or WR. And if you set the precedent of taking Luck that early, you might bait some other owners into reaching on a QB early as well.. which would just leave you with more options when your #17 and #24 picks roll around.
Posted on 8/12/15 at 11:42 am to 3andOut
We have 6 pt TDs and bonuses kinda similar and last season the difference between the #1 QB (Luck) and the #5 QB (Brees) was about 65 pts and between Luck and the # 10 QB (Eli) was about 95 pts.
Does the 4th pick of Luck mean Peterson, Bell, Rodgers are top 3?
Does the 4th pick of Luck mean Peterson, Bell, Rodgers are top 3?
This post was edited on 8/12/15 at 11:45 am
Posted on 8/12/15 at 11:44 am to 3andOut
I'm agonizing over this decision myself, but for a 12 team, 6 pts for passing TD, 1 pt PPR keeper league. I can keep 2 of Luck, Dez or Lacy. I keep telling myself I'm keeping Dez and Lacy, but Luck is just absolute money in the bank every week. I was essentially guaranteed 60 points between him and Dez last year. Gah. frick fantasy football.
Posted on 8/12/15 at 12:48 pm to Noplacelikehome
quote:
Does the 4th pick of Luck mean Peterson, Bell, Rodgers are top 3?
The problem with our league is that its so hit or miss. Last year Peyton was 1st overall.
I feel like if Bell is there at 4 I simply could not pass on him for Luck.
I am thinking based on who is drafting before me (they are RB lovers) that Bell, Peterson, Charles/Lacy would be gone.
I like Luck over Rodgers this year for fantasy.
I kind of think passing up on Charles for Luck I could do, but I could not pass up Bell or AP.
And who knows maybe someone is thinking like I am and takes Luck in the top 3...
Just running mocks and taking Luck at 4 doesn't hurt me overall but it does make my RB's suffer a bit. But the point difference between Luck/Rodgers and Brees/Peyton/Wilson/Big Ben I feel is going to be pretty significant this year especially with the added bonuses.
Posted on 8/12/15 at 12:49 pm to Noplacelikehome
quote:And the difference last year in 1pt PPR leagues between the #1 RB and the the #10 RB was 160 points. And you need to start 2 RBs which makes it even a larger separation.
We have 6 pt TDs and bonuses kinda similar and last season the difference between the #1 QB (Luck) and the #5 QB (Brees) was about 65 pts and between Luck and the # 10 QB (Eli) was about 95 pts.
The difference between the #4 RB and #13 RB was 104 points.
Lynch(1st round pick)+Eli(10th round pick) outscored Luck(1st round pick)+13th ranked RB in 6pt passing, 1pt PPR leagues.
Posted on 8/12/15 at 7:59 pm to 3andOut
I'm in close to the same position as you, except it's standard scoring being the only difference. I thought hard about it when I first learned the draft order. Then I brought it up on here and I got talked down. I think the logical, mathematical choice is to take a top RB (or depending what is available wr in ppr) who will surely be there this high, but I'm still tempted to grab Luck. He is as close as it gets to a lot of guaranteed points each week.
The drop offs between the different levels of positions definitely makes RB a lot more valuable, but I think there is something to be said about a possible decrease in risk by acquiring a bunch of points in that one pick.
The drop offs between the different levels of positions definitely makes RB a lot more valuable, but I think there is something to be said about a possible decrease in risk by acquiring a bunch of points in that one pick.
This post was edited on 8/12/15 at 8:06 pm
Posted on 8/13/15 at 9:51 am to 3andOut
With 6 point passing TDs, will that make the top QBs the highest scoring players in the league? I play in leagues where that is the case for sure. I prefer going stud QB early, because there are just not that many. There are always RBs and WRs that come along throughout the year on the waiver wire. This is not the case for the QB position. With that in mind, the league isn't won on draft night. Gotta be on the waiver wire all damn season to stay up to par.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 11:42 am to gjackx
quote:I am the exact opposite. There isn't enough separation to justify such a high pick on a QB.
I prefer going stud QB early, because there are just not that many. There are always RBs and WRs that come along throughout the year on the waiver wire. This is not the case for the QB position.
Last year Peyton Manning was picked in 1st round. He finished as #3 OA QB in 6pt leagues. Luck was picked in round 5 and finished #1 OA QB. Roethlisberger was picked in Double Digit Rounds and finished #4 OA.
The point differential between the 1st round QB (Manning) and 10th+ round QB (Big Ben): 20 points.
The point differential between the #1 OA QB (5th round) and #4 OA QB (10th+ round): 60 points.
Try this one out:
The point differential between Luck (#1) and Alex Smith (#19) was 175 points. The point differential between #1 RB (Bell) and #19 RB (Ellington) was 193 points.
Yes, in 6pt passing leagues QBs score more, but it's not the point total that matters, it's the relative points.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 11:51 am to drizztiger
So when would you feel is the time to take a QB (Luck and Rodgers included)
I have never taken a QB early until this season. I took Luck in the 3rd based on value. 10 team league, PPR, and I feel as though it was a great move.
I have never taken a QB early until this season. I took Luck in the 3rd based on value. 10 team league, PPR, and I feel as though it was a great move.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 12:01 pm to CocoLoco
In 6pt leagues, I think Luck/Rodgers in the 3rd is fine - both 10 or 12 team leagues. Personally I'd want to pick up 2 solid skill players first and then weigh the available players.
But I doubt either will be available in the 3rd round in most league - especially with the talk of taking Luck #4 overall. I'd be content loading up elsewhere and address QB between rounds 7-13. I think there is some value to the QB position this year.
But I doubt either will be available in the 3rd round in most league - especially with the talk of taking Luck #4 overall. I'd be content loading up elsewhere and address QB between rounds 7-13. I think there is some value to the QB position this year.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 12:15 pm to drizztiger
I had the 6th pick. Went Antonio, Jeremy Hill then Luck. I figured Luck would end up as a better value compared to what I was looking at on the board, and Rodgers had gone already. I knew Luck wasn't going to make it back around to me. Hopefully that pays off. I didn't end up with Morris then Deandre Hopkins (huge steal in the 5th) as my next two.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 12:25 pm to drizztiger
quote:
Yes, in 6pt passing leagues QBs score more, but it's not the point total that matters, it's the relative points.
The relative difference between QB's also increases as well as the total amount of points. The relative difference is 2 more points per the difference in number of touchdowns thrown.
Eta: e.g. qb1 throws 10 tds
Qb2 throws 15 tds
In 4 pt pass TD league:
Qb1: 40 pts
Qb2: 60 pts
Difference: 20 pts
In 6 pt pass TD league:
Qb1: 60 pts
Qb2: 90 pts
Difference: 30 pts
This post was edited on 8/13/15 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 8/13/15 at 12:37 pm to Peazey
All of the numbers I've posted in this thread are 6pt passing TD leagues.
Luck (being considered 1st round) had 60 more points than Roethlisberger (10th+ rounder last season).
Also, as explained, you only need 1 QB which reduces the value compared to 2xRB or 2xWR.
Luck (being considered 1st round) had 60 more points than Roethlisberger (10th+ rounder last season).
Also, as explained, you only need 1 QB which reduces the value compared to 2xRB or 2xWR.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 12:46 pm to drizztiger
Big Ben also had two games that make his numbers look so good. Two games with 6 touchdowns. Luck is far more consistent, as is Rodgers.
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