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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:13 pm to CivilTiger83
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:13 pm to CivilTiger83
Officials: Canadian coronavirus patient had symptoms on flight back from China, but did not self-report
Using the plane’s seating charts, Toronto public health officials are contacting passengers of flight CZ311 who may have had close contact with the man
LINK
Using the plane’s seating charts, Toronto public health officials are contacting passengers of flight CZ311 who may have had close contact with the man
LINK
2
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:18 pm to AbitaFan08
Based on the number of people in US with it, the number of infected in China should be much higher. I believe I read roughly 4,000 people came to United States from Wuhan during the period.
Anyone do any math like this and much more knowledgeable than me?
Anyone do any math like this and much more knowledgeable than me?
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:20 pm to LSUGrrrl
Relying on people self reporting is a bad idea. If they say they're ill when they get on the flight, there's a chance they'll get turned away. If somebody wants to go home, or to another country with better treatment, they'll lie.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:21 pm to keks tadpole
The Chinese reported 145 deaths from the regular flu last year. I don’t expect a whole lot of accuracy here.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:23 pm to lsu13lsu
Uh...Chinese Giant salamander. He's actually small. 
Salamanders are gross creatures.
Salamanders are gross creatures. Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:26 pm to CivilTiger83
McNeese Chinese students that have called home over the weekend all believed the numbers we are getting are severely suppressed compared to what they are hearing from family and friends back home. They are all in agreement and certain the death toll is over 1000 and climbing. Feels the number infected is too large to accurately assume. When asked if 100,000 was a reasonable number one young lady spoke up and said that number is way to low to start guessing but wouldn’t say a number she heard. Also said it’s in way more cities in China than being reported as well.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:36 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:
if you do the timeline from last Friday where a Wuhan nurse/doctor estimated 90k sick, that is within reason
You seem level headed most of the time and then you say something like this.
There was no R-naught value proposed that would place 250k in the the timeline from 90k on Friday. None. It’s impossible. There simply hasn’t been the time for subsequent generations to fully emerge into frank symptoms.
And yet here you are, making shite up to string along an unverified end of the world narrative, especially AFTER an excellent and informative excerpt from an expert was posted.
Why would you do that?
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:36 pm to Houdini
Are you a prof or student?
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:41 pm to Lsut81
TLDR version: Hedging a lot, saying it’s entirely too early to make any definitive statements, but the assessment is positive.
It seems to be less virulent, with a spectrum of clinical responses (as opposed to SARS which was almost uniformly severe).
They downgraded the Ro value, and offered numbers estimating 44k total infected with 26k of these in frank symptoms. They expect that number to hit 100k ~Feb 4th-5th
In the sea of “good” news, doomsdayers latched onto the statement that mortality rates are expected to increase as disease pathology runs its full course (still early enough that the first people to get sick are still fighting for their lives).
It seems to be less virulent, with a spectrum of clinical responses (as opposed to SARS which was almost uniformly severe).
They downgraded the Ro value, and offered numbers estimating 44k total infected with 26k of these in frank symptoms. They expect that number to hit 100k ~Feb 4th-5th
In the sea of “good” news, doomsdayers latched onto the statement that mortality rates are expected to increase as disease pathology runs its full course (still early enough that the first people to get sick are still fighting for their lives).
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:56 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
Based on the number of people in US with it, the number of infected in China should be much higher. I believe I read roughly 4,000 people came to United States from Wuhan during the period.
It doesn't work like that.
If there are 4,000 people who came from Wuhan to the US, it's is reasonable for them to be contacted and investigated. We're doing that now. As a result, you're going to find nearly every infection, however minor.
In China, for the most part, the minor to asymptomatic cases will go unnoticed.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 4:58 pm to slackster
Chick that came back from Asia said nothing out of the ordinary. that's the problem when 5 mil supposedly left Wuhan
Posted on 1/27/20 at 5:00 pm to slackster
Good point, that is why I asked.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 5:13 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
Canadian coronavirus patient had symptoms on flight back from China, but did not self-report
Frick that guy
Posted on 1/27/20 at 5:20 pm to Indefatigable
That flight went to toronto, keeping my eye on the border up here
Posted on 1/27/20 at 5:25 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Frick that guy
I feel great outside of normal sinus stuff, but have considered calling my doc and asking if I should preemptively get tested to be sure... even though I didn’t go into mainland this trip, I was in HK right as mainlanders we’re coming into city for CNY.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 5:33 pm to Houdini
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/11/23 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 5:35 pm to TomTheGhost
Kind of makes you wonder what would it take to shut down flights? Zombies eating brains in China? Would that be enough? We only need one person walking around in NYC or Seattle for a week spreading this thing and the cat is way out of the bag. Probably is already out of the bag.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 5:39 pm to Lsut81
quote:
I feel great outside of normal sinus stuff, but have considered calling my doc and asking if I should preemptively get tested to be sure... even though I didn’t go into mainland this trip, I was in HK right as mainlanders we’re coming into city for CNY.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 5:46 pm to RougeDawg
quote:
Local news @wusa9 just reported that a george mason student from Wuhan just returned to the area from Wuhan, doesn’t feeel well but is refusing to go see a doctor and is “self-isolating”
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