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The Craig Kimbrel Conundrum
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:11 am
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:11 am
He now has 5 walks and 3 HBP in 6 1/3 postseason innings. He only hit 2 people during the entire regular season and his walk rate has doubled from where he was in the regular season.
On the flip side, his K/9 is still good at 11.4, but WHIP is 1.89. Strike % is down from 65% regular season to 56% in the postseason. I thought his breaking ball looked very good last night, but FB command was still spotty. In other words his stuff still looks good, but his command sucks. I wonder if it is fixable?
There was talk on the waves last night and today that its a "minor" mechanical issue, and it was reportedly being actively discussed last night while he was warming. I am at least encouraged by last night (excluding the 4 pitch walk where he was no where near the zone with all FB's)- especially after the brutal 2 inning outing Wednesday. I thought he hit his spots and would not have been a white -knuckle situation at all had it not been for the previous night's adventure. I am not advocating a bullpen shuffle, just looking for some discussion.
On the flip side, his K/9 is still good at 11.4, but WHIP is 1.89. Strike % is down from 65% regular season to 56% in the postseason. I thought his breaking ball looked very good last night, but FB command was still spotty. In other words his stuff still looks good, but his command sucks. I wonder if it is fixable?
There was talk on the waves last night and today that its a "minor" mechanical issue, and it was reportedly being actively discussed last night while he was warming. I am at least encouraged by last night (excluding the 4 pitch walk where he was no where near the zone with all FB's)- especially after the brutal 2 inning outing Wednesday. I thought he hit his spots and would not have been a white -knuckle situation at all had it not been for the previous night's adventure. I am not advocating a bullpen shuffle, just looking for some discussion.
8
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:13 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
I think Darling was right last night, he just needs work. He looked a ton better yesterday than he had previous game.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:13 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
To my untrained eye, it looks like he is opening up with his left shoulder and spinning off his line, which is leading to control issues. I wonder if he has lost a touch of velocity and is trying to get it back by over throwing.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:16 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
His whatchamacallit isn't doing what his dohickey is suppose to be telling his giddyup how to geterover
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:17 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
He looked a lot better last night, but I think Barnes is the obvious backup option if he falters again. Eovaldi possibly as well if he’s on a bullpen day
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:18 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
The problem is that his issues have been going on since the All-Star break. Kimbrel had a 4.57 ERA with a BB/9 over six during the second half of the season. If it's simply a minor mechanical issue, why couldn't they have figured that out last month or two months ago?
This post was edited on 10/19/18 at 9:21 am
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:20 am to Bench McElroy
My theory is his fastball lost some velocity leading to better contact from hitters. I think his mechanics are breaking down because he is trying to keep his fastball velocity up.
Maybe I'm full of shite, but that's been my thinking. I know his brother. I may try to see what he says if I run into him this weekend.
Maybe I'm full of shite, but that's been my thinking. I know his brother. I may try to see what he says if I run into him this weekend.
This post was edited on 10/19/18 at 9:21 am
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:20 am to PearlJam
quote:
He now has 5 walks and 2 HBP in 5 1/3 postseason innings, which is just awful. He only hit 2 people during the entire regular season and his walk rate has doubled from where he was in the regular season.
Not sure if he is overthrowing, but looking at individual AB's from the postseason, his FB velocity looks to be unchanged - I do not have stat cast cumulative numbers to look at, just eyeballing the pitch boxes from gameday. Maybe he's overthrowing to get there if that's what you're saying? IDK, but his postgame interview suggested confidence going out there and confidence going forward, which makes me happy.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:22 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
The problem is that his issues have been going on since the All-Star break. Kimbrel had a 4.57 ERA with a BB/9 over six during the second half of the season. If it's simply a minor mechanical issue, why couldn't they have figured that out last month or two months ago?
I agree, he has been awful since the break. I think he is tipping his pitches some kind of way since the batter is never fooled by anything he throws it seems.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:22 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
quote:That's my theory. I don't have anything to really back it up.
Maybe he's overthrowing to get there if that's what you're saying?
ETA: just seens batters are getting better contact on his FB and he seems to be spinning off of his line a good bit (potentially because he is trying to get a little extra velo).
This post was edited on 10/19/18 at 9:26 am
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:22 am to Bench McElroy
It looks like he has so much going on in his motion that you never know when you fix one part and screw up another, but after he comes set its a fairly basic delivery. I always thought he was missing his release until last night.
I really hate his begin, but if he feels comfortable then let him do it.
I really hate his begin, but if he feels comfortable then let him do it.
This post was edited on 10/19/18 at 9:24 am
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:23 am to danfraz
quote:
His whatchamacallit isn't doing what his dohickey is suppose to be telling his giddyup how to geterover
I think his flux capacitor is broken.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:41 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
His ridiculous spread eagle stance is a fricking disgrace.
That's all I have.
That's all I have.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:51 am to LSUGrad9295
quote:
Kimbrel had a 4.57 ERA with a BB/9 over six during the second half of the season
I agree with the BB rate, but ERA is a difficult stat for relievers because of the small sample size. I'll tell you I watch this team every night, and he didn't have many white knuckle situations even in the second half. If you look at his game logs, this is borne out, in fact most of the effect on his ERA came on one late Sep outing vs BAL in a meaningless game where he gave up 4 ER (in fact, those were the only runs earned or unearned he gave up for the entire month of SEP). He was still really, really good in high leverage situations through out the year.
My point from this rambling is that I still think it can be minor. Pedro said last night on the postgame that he was looking at his target too late? I want to see what the NESN crew says, and have it on the DVR, but haven't watched it yet.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 9:55 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
Fortunately for the Red Sox, they are so much better than the NL team he probably won't even impact the games enough to really matter. That team is loaded
ETA I pray the Braves don't pay him in the offseason
ETA I pray the Braves don't pay him in the offseason
This post was edited on 10/19/18 at 9:56 am
Posted on 10/19/18 at 10:00 am to BigPapiDoesItAgain
One thing that bothers me is when he becomes set and starts towards the plate, he stares at the third base dugout all the way until he releases the ball. Just seems like he is picking up his spot really late. Not sure if he has always done that, but I have noticed that the last couple outings.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 10:05 am to stansbury10
quote:
One thing that bothers me is when he becomes set and starts towards the plate, he stares at the third base dugout all the way until he releases the ball. Just seems like he is picking up his spot really late. Not sure if he has always done that, but I have noticed that the last couple outings.
With the Braves, he would look at the plate right before starting his delivery
Posted on 10/19/18 at 11:46 am to VinegarStrokes
Exercepted from a Boston Herald piece this morning:
HOUSTON -- It’s been clear all postseason that Craig Kimbrel’s fastball has been wild and his vicious breaking ball wasn’t getting bites.
Entering last night, the results had been horrendous. Opponents were hitting .385 off his fastball. They weren’t swinging at the breaking ball. And Kimbrel had allowed at least one run all four times he’s pitched.
Finally, he fixed the problem.
Kimbrel threw a hitless ninth inning to close out the Red Sox’ 4-1 win over the Astros to punch their ticket to the World Series, which begins Tuesday at Fenway Park.
“We knew he was tipping his pitches yesterday, and we knew he was going to be fine,” manager Alex Cora said. “You saw his hands today. Yesterday they were up, today they were down. He’s been tipping his pitches for two weeks.”
Said Kimbrel, “We found a few things last night after the game. Some stuff I’ve been struggling with for a while. I feel like I was able to hone it in tonight, get back online and pitch like I’m supposed to.”
Kimbrel
HOUSTON -- It’s been clear all postseason that Craig Kimbrel’s fastball has been wild and his vicious breaking ball wasn’t getting bites.
Entering last night, the results had been horrendous. Opponents were hitting .385 off his fastball. They weren’t swinging at the breaking ball. And Kimbrel had allowed at least one run all four times he’s pitched.
Finally, he fixed the problem.
Kimbrel threw a hitless ninth inning to close out the Red Sox’ 4-1 win over the Astros to punch their ticket to the World Series, which begins Tuesday at Fenway Park.
“We knew he was tipping his pitches yesterday, and we knew he was going to be fine,” manager Alex Cora said. “You saw his hands today. Yesterday they were up, today they were down. He’s been tipping his pitches for two weeks.”
Said Kimbrel, “We found a few things last night after the game. Some stuff I’ve been struggling with for a while. I feel like I was able to hone it in tonight, get back online and pitch like I’m supposed to.”
Kimbrel
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