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re: Are we at a generational housing peak?
Posted on 3/11/17 at 6:29 pm to dabigfella
Posted on 3/11/17 at 6:29 pm to dabigfella
Automation has been here for decades in manufacturing, especially in the automobile sector. More recently, Amazon has automated more and more. The economies of scale haven't brought automation to the point where it's a measurable impact on the economy at this time in terms of displaced workers. Much less measurable on home ownership amongst younger demographics.
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Posted on 3/11/17 at 6:32 pm to lynxcat
quote:
lynxcat
quote:
To say that anyone who doesn't want to buy a home at a certain stage in life is inherently financially illiterate is quite the stretch.
Since that isn't what I said, I agree that what you said about what I said is quite a stretch.
Being less financially literate =\= financially illiterate. Ignoring the advantages is something many people in each generation do, to their detriment IMO.
You seem to have taken my comment as an insult, or perhaps even personally. I can assure that wasn't my intent.
Posted on 3/12/17 at 10:52 am to GFunk
I have actually begun to come around to being a homeowner. The way I look at it, what other investment can you borrow money where the interest is tax deductible and gains are not taxed?
Posted on 3/12/17 at 1:20 pm to dabigfella
quote:
west u elementary, pershing is meh for middle school, and then lamar has a really good IB program.
Yeah, this is one of the few decent feeder patterns inside the loop. But that's awesome you are in it. You could totally make that work. West U is a pretty damn good place to be.
quote:
The issue with the suburbs is appreciation is nominal at best, Im 36 and my parents moved to west u from the 1960 area near deerbrook mall, when I was 10 I'd say? After 5th grade, anyways the home I grew up in, they sold it for $225k in 1991 and I saw it sold in 2015 for $258k it literally went to shite in the late 90s apparently.
The problem with the shiny/new suburbs is that as long as people keep moving to Houston, there will always be something shinier/newer for not much more. The builders are always cutting down the housing market trying to get market share and keep their people working. Look at Katy. When we were there, you were starting to get the last good push of Cinco Southwest. So, you could buy there, get zoned at the time to Seven Lakes (now to Tompkins) and pay 275K for 2,250 sq feet, new, or you could buy something 10 years old closer to Cinco Ranch HS for the same price. Yeah, you might be 5-10 min closer to town, but most people would rather live a bit further out and get the newer home.
Heck, look at Alief. My understanding is when was being built, it was the tits. Then, oil bust, Katy starts to open up, and now it's falling apart.
Posted on 3/12/17 at 1:29 pm to GFunk
quote:
A lease on an apartment is quicker and easier. But it's also far less lucrative and provides less tax and credit advantages compared to home ownership. To say nothing of the potential for passive income generation and/or realizing liquid assets via appreciation and the equity paying at closing.
I don't know how saying owning a house is a credit advantage... I guess paying on time raises your credit score.
The tax and credit stuff is pretty overblown at this point. With most people paying 3-4 percent interest rates, unless you are paying a lot of taxes as well, you likely are, at best, only getting itemized deductions slightly above the standard deduction, especially if you are married. If you buy a bigger house, you make more money, you will get more bang out of that... but younger people (who are the ones not buying) don't have either of those.
Appreciation is a thing, in the global sense, but even that is market to market specific.
The only true advantages I see are building equity via paying down the note, and not having to worry about someone jacking up your rent or, if you rent a house, the owner deciding he doesn't want to rent anymore. Both of those are significant advantages, but they must be compared to the costs and aggravation of maintenance and permenence.
I think there is probably an age, where the homeownership rate won't be much different. Maybe it's age 35-40 or so. Todays' 40 year olds are probably just as likely to own a home as the 40 year olds, 30 years ago. The difference is today's 28-35 year olds are much less likely to own compared to their peers 30 years ago.
Posted on 3/12/17 at 1:52 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
The problem with the shiny/new suburbs is that as long as people keep moving to Houston, there will always be something shinier/newer for not much more. The builders are always cutting down the housing market trying to get market share and keep their people working. Look at Katy. When we were there, you were starting to get the last good push of Cinco Southwest. So, you could buy there, get zoned at the time to Seven Lakes (now to Tompkins) and pay 275K for 2,250 sq feet, new, or you could buy something 10 years old closer to Cinco Ranch HS for the same price. Yeah, you might be 5-10 min closer to town, but most people would rather live a bit further out and get the newer home.
Exactly, thats what im saying, only prime real estate will appreciate in major markets bc there will constantly be an influx of new construction otherwise in the suburbs. I really do feel the prime parts in cities will continue to rise while the suburbs will go flat to possibly even negative in the future. You look at houston they're building so many apartments and condos in the loop and we've never had high rises. People want to live in the city nowadays, nobody wants to live in the suburbs. As a guy who owns a place in miami I chuckle that all the new high end condos in houston are in the $600-800/sq ft price range bc there is still nice oceanfront property in miami at that level but hey if houstonians are willing to pay that price to live in a condo in houston then who am i to question the developer.
Posted on 3/12/17 at 3:31 pm to reb13
The gains are taxed when you liquidate. If you make a like kind exchange for another bigger house then the gains are not taxed.
Posted on 3/12/17 at 3:33 pm to lynxcat
1031 exchanges cant be done on personal residences I dont think but capital gains are tax free up to $250k for single people or $500k for married couple
Posted on 3/12/17 at 3:47 pm to reb13
quote:
interest is tax deductible
I find this interesting, particularly as applied to arguments directed at Millennials. You realize that I would need a mortgage hovering around 250k simply to break even when it comes to itemized vs simply taking the standard deduction, right?
What percentage of sub-35 year olds would you advise to take on a 250k+ mortgage?
Posted on 3/12/17 at 3:52 pm to gobuxgo5
quote:
There is no such thing as personal sacrifice for like a family or a stable home to raise that family, so why would you Burden yourself by having kids?
Wait, are we now pretending that choosing to have children isn't inherently selfish? And that it's a personal sacrifice? Who, exactly, are you doing this favor for? The world has over seven billion people. It doesn't need your 2.2 children.
Now, this isn't knocking people who have children. And sure, once you've chosen to have them, raising them requires sacrifices. With that said, I simply think it's disingenuous for people to pretend like the primary driving force behind having children isn't the selfish desire to continue their genes/line/legacy.
Or, you know, they're really bad at using birth control.
This post was edited on 3/12/17 at 9:18 pm
Posted on 3/12/17 at 8:54 pm to dabigfella
quote:i agree with everything you said, but by "people" I think you mean single, young professionals, young couples with no kids. My wife and I lived in the heights . We moved out to Katy because of the schools, not the bars ;-) . We are OT poor, so $15k-$20k a year for private school in the area was out the question. The demographics of the public schools in the Houston inner city (poor, kids from unwed mothers, behavior problems , unrulely classes, substandard teachers) were not something we wanted our daughters to be going to class with.
People seem to want the more urban experience, even houston finally after having lived here my whole life finally has a somewhat cool downtown. It was trash my whole life and just now has decent condos,bars,restaurants you can all walk too and the inner loop properties are really soaring
This post was edited on 3/12/17 at 9:22 pm
Posted on 3/12/17 at 9:07 pm to dabigfella
quote:
I really do feel the prime parts in cities will continue to rise while the suburbs will go flat to possibly even negative in the future.
So long as people are having kids and the inner city schools continue to have lots of Sheela Jackson Lee voters , the burbs will have some value to young parents.
I do agree that value is the key. While I don't consider my home a true investment (I.e. I need to gain 5% on my home value every year) , my girls can walk to elementary school. If you'd see the car line in the morning, it's easy to see value in my location. Again, I'm not trying to turn a profit here. And maybe in 10 years, the school has gone to shite, but right now, I feel pretty sound.
Posted on 3/12/17 at 10:53 pm to crazycubes
Yea I get a chuckle out of the heights and how quickly its had its turnaround, a good friend of mine was robbed at gunpoint there last year. Another friend of mine has had his car broken into twice over the last few years. Neither of those things happen at all in river oaks or west u. The heights has made an amazing turnaround but there are still a ton of undesirables right there next to your super pricey homes. It still has alot of gentrification that needs to happen.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 12:07 am to crazycubes
quote:gentrification isn't slowing down (at least not to my knowledge). won't this eventually change the dynamic of both suburbs and inner-cities?
So long as people are having kids and the inner city schools continue to have lots of Sheela Jackson Lee voters , the burbs will have some value to young parents.
inner-city schools have to become acceptable at some point, and the dregs have to find a new, cheap place to live, right?
personally, i think younger couples who get pregnant will keep moving to the suburbs at a high enough rate to maintain status quo for a very long time.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 5:55 am to dabigfella
Oh cmon. You are being very obtuse. I have friends getting robbed in montrose recently. I live in the heights with many friends and no one has had issues. But that does not mean the neighborhood is perfect.
You compare heights to west u and river oaks in terms of crime/neighborhood? West u and river oaks both have their own police/security.
The heights is about to go into over drive in terms of redevelopment. The HEB beer sales bill has spurred outside investment, with large projects planned all along Shepard/19th/Yale.
So the atteactivebess of the heights is about to grow. As a property owner I am excited about that, but we will see.
If I stay in the heights and raise a family then I will probably send kids to StPius/st Thomas.
If I leave the heights then I will go west to memorial.
You compare heights to west u and river oaks in terms of crime/neighborhood? West u and river oaks both have their own police/security.
The heights is about to go into over drive in terms of redevelopment. The HEB beer sales bill has spurred outside investment, with large projects planned all along Shepard/19th/Yale.
So the atteactivebess of the heights is about to grow. As a property owner I am excited about that, but we will see.
If I stay in the heights and raise a family then I will probably send kids to StPius/st Thomas.
If I leave the heights then I will go west to memorial.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 7:20 am to cjared036
I'm not being obtuse when homes in the heights are now more than homes in West u. Look if you wanna pay $1.5m to live next door to the hood be my guest but west u having its own police force of 4-5 cops isn't why we lack crime it's bc we don't have a lot of "culcha" ot speak anywhere near us. I think there's been 1 murder my whole life in west u like 20 years ago that serial killer the railroad killer but other than that you rarely here about break ins or robberies, and by rarely I mean almost never. The prices people are paying for the heights is silly bc as nice as that areas is today vs years ago, a lot of trash right next door.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 8:34 am to dabigfella
quote:
The issue with the suburbs is appreciation is nominal at best, Im 36 and my parents moved to west u from the 1960 area near deerbrook mall, when I was 10 I'd say?
not the burbs in my opinion. you need to get past TX99 now days.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 8:42 am to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:
gentrification isn't slowing down (at least not to my knowledge). won't this eventually change the dynamic of both suburbs and inner-cities?
It's going to take some time
quote:
inner-city schools have to become acceptable at some point, and the dregs have to find a new, cheap place to live, right?
when I go to HAR.com, look at downtown areas, pull local elementary school demographics and see numbers like "3% white, 80% Economically Disadvantaged", "5% white, 70% Economically Disadvantaged"....yea that's not going to work. I mean. It may get there someday, but not today.
ETA: Are there some "diamonds in the rough" schools downtown? Certainly. But, you have to find out if the magnet school HAS to accept your child simply based on location and not test scores. Some do...some don't.
LINK
This post was edited on 3/13/17 at 8:51 am
Posted on 3/13/17 at 9:55 am to dabigfella
Then you are not looking hard enough at the differences.
The size (square footage/lot) is much larger in the heights than west U for 1.5 million purchase.
Also a lot of heights homeowners may work on the north side of town. Living in the heights cuts the commute to work in this case.
There are all kids of reasons why the heights has high prices. Comparable with West U.
West U has a lot more homes priced at $1.5 million+.
The size (square footage/lot) is much larger in the heights than west U for 1.5 million purchase.
Also a lot of heights homeowners may work on the north side of town. Living in the heights cuts the commute to work in this case.
There are all kids of reasons why the heights has high prices. Comparable with West U.
West U has a lot more homes priced at $1.5 million+.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 12:16 pm to gobuxgo5
quote:
The selfie generation is being raised to believe that they are the most important things in their lives. There is no such thing as personal sacrifice for like a family or a stable home to raise that family, so why would you Burden yourself by having kids? How does that help you have fun? Why have a house? Marriage is fun but if it gets tough, you can't be stuck with a house. Maybe around 35 when their looks start to fade you can find someone with no debt and a good resume to settle with. Perhaps get a dog for the first 10 years and then have a kid in mid 40s.
to be fair, its better than getting the home and family and then NOT doing the work to keep it together.
heaven forbid someone choose a lifestyle they enjoy instead of pushing themselves into something they dont in the name of satisfying expectations
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