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re: Elon Musk: Automation Will Force Governments to Introduce Universal Basic Income

Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:12 pm to
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

1) There will always be jobs for humans to do. Management decisions if nothing else. Those that perform service deserve service pay, and those that perform better service deserve better pay!


Automation increases efficiency.. and when efficiency increases businesses ultimately need less meatbags to produce the appropriate amount of product.

People say "free market will figure it out"... but I'm not sure
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:16 pm to
quote:


3) People would not be content with what ever a basic income would provide. Insurrection, death, and destruction would result


You misunderstand the premise of UBI.. you still work. You want extra shite? Work for it. It just frees us from doing menial jobs and would result in more entrepreneurship and innovation
Posted by Gaspergou202
Metairie, LA
Member since Jun 2016
13504 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:37 pm to
quote:

Automation increases efficiency.. and when efficiency increases businesses ultimately need less meatbags to produce the appropriate amount of product. People say "free market will figure it out"... but I'm not sure

Homo sapients are evolutionary incapable of being content. Every time a group becomes content the malcontents come in and violently take their shite and remain not content.

Leaving humanity with nothing positive to do, with all the time to do it in, and everything to do it with will result in disaster! Nervana ain't happening! There will eventually be a war on nonhuman labor or thought, or a war with nonhuman labor and thought! We will find a solution or die. History is on the side of a solution. So far, so good!
Posted by jcole4lsu
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
30922 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:38 pm to
quote:

You misunderstand the premise of UBI.. you still work. You want extra shite? Work for it. It just frees us from doing menial jobs and would result in more entrepreneurship and innovation

100% correct
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
261690 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:41 pm to
quote:


You misunderstand the premise of UBI.. you still work. You want extra shite? Work for it. It just frees us from doing menial jobs and would result in more entrepreneurship and innovation


UBI will not be enough to free most people from their menial jobs in most people's work life, that are working now. It's still a long way from becoming a reality.
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
39575 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:41 pm to
quote:


Communism involves many other things besides the redistribution of wealth. A universal basic income would remove almost every single welfare program and bureaucrat shrinking the welfare system to a tiny fraction of what it is today. It is the most libertarian of all welfare methods as it is the most efficient and would dramatically reduce the size of government.


How old are you? Seriously, do you think we are ever getting rid of welfare? You think this system would suddenly be managed responsibly when all others before it are wrought with waste?

All this does is raise our tax burden, increase unemployment, are drive inflation.
This post was edited on 2/19/17 at 3:42 pm
Posted by claremontrich
Member since Nov 2016
2001 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:44 pm to
quote:

Elon Musk: Automation Will Force Governments to Introduce Universal Basic Income by HempHead If I were of a Machiavellian bent, I would just let all industrial needs be taken care of by robots and depopulate the world to a stable size.


There would a big and bloody set of wars that you would fight first before the equilibrium is reached
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
39575 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:49 pm to
This same stuff was said about automation during the industrial revolution to scare labor into accepting lower wages.

Just sayin'
Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

How old are you? Seriously, do you think we are ever getting rid of welfare? You think this system would suddenly be managed responsibly when all others before it are wrought with waste?

All this does is raise our tax burden, increase unemployment, are drive inflation.



So you prefer, what? The status quo?

The UBI is one of the few ideas economists on the right and left largely agree with, where you can find Milton Friedman and Paul Krugman arguing the same broad points. Though like many things it does get contentious when you move into some of the details.
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

This same stuff was said about automation during the industrial revolution to scare labor into accepting lower wages.

Just sayin'


There's a big difference in the level of automation we are talking about. We are looking at a world where you can order inventory, a robot gets it off the shelf, loads it, it is autonomously driven to your store, and taken off the truck by a robot, and the truck then drives itself to it's next location. 24 hours a day.. 7 days a week.. 365 days a year..

That's two robots doing the job of 6-10 humans (when you account for less HR/management needs). Then account for the service jobs (diners, gas stations, etc) that rely on the industry..

It's just mind boggling that a simple invention could crush 20% of the workforce
This post was edited on 2/19/17 at 4:02 pm
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
39575 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:08 pm to
quote:

The UBI is one of the few ideas economists on the right and left largely agree with



No. Just no. Why should I give you my taxes, so you can skim your massive gov cut before giving it back to me? Just tax me less. This only benefits those who don't work, as it incentivizes people not to work. We have social safety nets in place that could work better with reform. You want to pay people to do nothing. What happens when dems get their open borders?

We are losing jobs because we have the third highest corporate tax rate on earth and the most regulated industries on earth. Our behemoth welfare state keeps many young, able bodied workers at home while we let 10s of millions of illegals in to take what few jobs are left. Our trade deals allow countries with sweatshop labor standards like China and Mexico rape our trade balance with cheap goods. Let's fix all of that before we start talking about fricking UBI.

And no, I don't like the status quo. There are other ways to reform welfare than doubling down on collectivism.

Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

No. Just no. Why should I give you my taxes, so you can skim your massive gov cut before giving it back to me? Just tax me less. This only benefits those who don't work, as it incentivizes people not to work. We have social safety nets in place that could work better with reform. You want to pay people to do nothing. What happens when dems get their open borders?

We are losing jobs because we have the third highest corporate tax rate on earth and the most regulated industries on earth. Our behemoth welfare state keeps many young, able bodied workers at home while we let 10s of millions of illegals in to take what few jobs are left. Our trade deals allow countries with sweatshop labor standards like China and Mexico rape our trade balance with cheap goods. Let's fix all of that before we start talking about fricking UBI.

And no, I don't like the status quo. There are other w


You are completely talking over the issue being discussed.

If the premise holds true that advances in automation and technology are going to shift the labor demand curve in this country negatively to the point where peak employment will be much lower as a percentage of the population then now or historically, then you can't just say, cut my taxes. That doesn't even make any sense.

But in all that rant not addressing the discussion, you didn't offer up your alternative reforms in any sort of detail? Or even why they would be superior to a UBI in the first place?



Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
39575 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:14 pm to
quote:


There's a big difference in the level of automation we are talking about. We are looking at a world where you can order inventory, a robot gets it off the shelf, loads it, it is autonomously driven to your store, and taken off the truck by a robot, and the truck then drives itself to it's next location. 24 hours a day.. 7 days a week.. 365 days a year..

That's two robots doing the job of 6-10 humans (when you account for less HR/management needs). Then account for the service jobs (diners, gas stations, etc) that rely on the industry..

It's just mind boggling that a simple invention could crush 20% of the workforce


I don't disagree with any of this, but the industrial revolution decimated ag and manufacturing labor forces. Fortunately, much of what was lost was child labor and general economic growth from the rise in productivity created other opportunities. If our economy is strong, people will work - perhaps as a programmer rather than an operator.
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
39575 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:23 pm to
quote:

But in all that rant not addressing the discussion, you didn't offer up your alternative reforms in any sort of detail? Or even why they would be superior to a UBI in the first place?


I don't owe you an alternative plan. We are discussing UBI, and I've explained why it will not work. You won't listen, but that's your issue.

We have ALWAYS had automation, and it has always lead to gains in productivity that offset the labor that is lost. Save the great depression, unemployment is stable throughout decades of some of the most significant advances in automation the world has ever known. Someone has to program and design the tech, someone has to furnish the supply base for automated systems and maintain those systems. New, yet undiscovered economic drivers will emerge, as the Web did in the early 90's that reinvigorate the economy with new jobs. Nothing happening todayou hasn't already happened.

Posted by Colonel Flagg
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
22830 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:24 pm to
The only solution to this is for people to stop having so many children.
Posted by uway
Member since Sep 2004
33109 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:25 pm to
The lights are going to go out one day. Governments need to start rudimentary farming operations.
Posted by AaronDeTiger
baton rouge
Member since Jun 2014
1558 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:26 pm to
The poor guy that shoveled horse shite in the stables all day lost his job with the invention of the automobile.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
53123 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:27 pm to
Aww shite Ima eat snow crab legs every night
Posted by tigerite
Member since Dec 2016
136 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:30 pm to
Every robot or similar technological instruments should have to have a human tender, this way, there is no job displacement.

It also would prevent AI robots from possibly running amuck.
Posted by Antonio Moss
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
48330 posts
Posted on 2/19/17 at 4:42 pm to
quote:


That is what is implied by the term 'universal'.



There are different models. The most basic would have government subsidize the lower class to a certain minimal annual income. For example, if the accepted minimum income was $30,000 annually and you made $25,000, the government would cut you a check for $5,000.

Honestly, since we already spend trillions on welfare in various forms, this seems like such an easier method. And if we do progress to the point where workforce numbers drop 10-30% due to automation, then UBI seems the logical answer.
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