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Message
re: What happened to Jordan Jefferson over the course of his career
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:32 pm to Salviati
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:32 pm to Salviati
quote:
And yet sports people make similar comparisons every hour of every day.
yes, sports people , manipulate stats and data every day for stories or to support their conclusions, regardless of how misleading or unreliable they are, case in point the QBR which you have (rightfully) discounted ITT. are you really trying to argue that sports journalism presents information in an ingenuous manner most of the time? please
quote:
As I have REPEATEDLY said, I considered all of Jefferson's games in 2011. The stats that I have posted include MORE than three games.
did they include game that were played in December and January?
quote:
What would you use to rank opponents when considering the statistics of the QB?
that's the thing, i wouldn't use one statistical national ranking to say who was better/worse. for instance, Oregon allowed 413 ypg in 2011. The University of Memphis allowed 343 yards pergame, the 22nd best statistical defense in the country by yards per game. Memphis went 2-10 in 2011. They played in a much weaker conference and against much weaker opponents ooc. So are you trying to say emphatically that Memphis had a "better" defense than Oregon because a statistical metric has one ranked differently? They didn't have a single common opponent. Oregon faced much more high powered offenses week in and week out.
This is what I'm talking about. You are using data that is factual. I never said you weren't. I just think the manner in which you chose to apply your data is inherently biased, however, and you pick and choose what data you want to use that best suits the point you are trying to make.
This post was edited on 7/31/15 at 1:42 pm
1
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:36 pm to Salviati
quote:
YOU are ATTEMPTING to discredit Jefferson based SOLELY on TWO games. That's what you have done for this ENTIRE thread.
no i have tried to get you to apply those two games to the rest of your analysis, something you have refused to do this entire thread. i have just said those two games happened, and you choosing to justify taking them out is disingenuous. nothing more, nothing less.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:37 pm to CptBengal
quote:What do they say about people who make ad hominem attacks?
yes, clown.
quote:
the fact you didnt provide the 95% CIs for your little graphs is very very telling.
Show me a graph of sports stats that "provide the 95% CIs" for the graph.
You are hiding behind statistics "math" because you have no statistics "facts" to support you.
Well, at least you're moving on from straight ad hominem attacks and you seem to have stopped calling me a liar. Of course, my pointing out how you were wrong in calling me a liar may have had something to do with it.
quote:Cool. I'm glad you agree.
And yes, pantheons of intelligence are the sports talking heads. Pantheons.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:38 pm to Salviati
quote:
I would certainly hope that Lee in his FIFTH year would perform better than Jefferson in his SECOND year.
I would hope that Jefferson in his third year would be better than in his second year too, but we all know how that turned out. i was giving him the benefit of the doubt because, for whatever reason, Jefferson's sophomore season was his best as a player.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:38 pm to Salviati
quote:
Show me a graph of sports stats that "provide the 95% CIs" for the graph.
You are hiding behind statistics "math" because you have no statistics "facts" to support you.
this is mind numbingly stupid.
I'm sure you're JJ now. Only he was this dumb.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:39 pm to CptBengal
quote:First, I am referring to HIM, not THEY. See the capitalized "YOU"? That should be your first clue.quote:No. They are just including the entirety of the 2011 data set.
YOU are ATTEMPTING to discredit Jefferson based SOLELY on TWO games.
that isnt 2 games, that's ALL games. fail.
Second, read the thread.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:40 pm to Salviati
quote:
Only the two games against Alabama were worse YPC games than the Oregon game.
remind me who played the most snaps under center in those two games. TIA
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:41 pm to Salviati
quote:
I have discussed both the SECCG and the BCS CG at great length.
just because you addressed why you left them out of your analysis doesn't mean you were correct in doing so
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:41 pm to Salviati
quote:
First, I am referring to HIM, not THEY. See the capitalized "YOU"? That should be your first clue.
Second, read the thread.
you're excluding data points to make your idiotic point.
That's just wrong.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:45 pm to BCS Statmaster
quote:Thank you for the bump!quote:Outcomes ... otherwise, we are trapped with verifying the fact that something, which by definition cannot be verified, is or is not verifiable.
what do you mean by "verified"
quote:What is this "something" which by definition cannot be verified? The ESPN QBR is not unverifiable by definition. It's unverifiable because ESPN chooses to keep it proprietary. ESPN refuses to produce the inputs or the equation by which the ESPN QBR is calculated.
something, which by definition cannot be verified
I can verify a batting average. I just need to know the stats. Once the stats are know, I can plug them into the batting average equation.
I can verify a QB Rating. I just need to know the stats. Once the stats are know, I can plug them into the QB Rating equation.
I, and no one else outside of ESPN, can verify the QBR. No one outside of ESPN knows what the inputs are or what the equation is.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:49 pm to Salviati
the 'by definition' was for purposes of efficiency ... not practicality ... anymore than proprietary = subjective = unreliable.
Was simply a mathematical expression.
Was simply a mathematical expression.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:00 pm to lsufball19
quote:
apply those two games to the rest of your analysis, something you have refused to do this entire thread.
Jarrett Lee
Season..........152.04 QB Rat - 104/167 62.3% 1306 yards 7.82 ypa 14 TD 3 INT
ALA/OU...........77.75 QB Rat - 13/29 44.8% 122 yards 4.21 ypa 1 TD 2 INT
Rest................167.65 QB Rat - 91/138 65.9% 1184 yards 8.58 ypa 13 TD 1 INT
Jordan Jefferson
Season..........138.71 QB Rat - 61/100 61.0% 737 yards 7.37 ypa 6 TD 2 INT /// 75 car 263 yards 3 TD
BCS/UGA.........80.91 QB Rat - 16/30 53.3% 83 yards 2.77 ypa 1 TD 1 INT /// 20 rush 10 yards
Rest................163.48 QBR Rat - 45/70 64.3% 654 yards 9.34 ypa 5 TD 1 INT /// 55 car 253 yards 3 TD
You gonna tell me that one of these quarterbacks was clearly better than the other?
This post was edited on 7/31/15 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:03 pm to lsufball19
quote:Wrong. Most sports people do not manipulate stats or data. I'm sorry you are so jaded.
yes, sports people , manipulate stats and data every day for stories or to support their conclusions, regardless of how misleading or unreliable they are
quote:The biggest problem with the ESPN QBR is NOT that ESPN is trying to manipulate stats or data. I honestly don't think that ESPN is trying to do that.
case in point the QBR which you have (rightfully) discounted
The biggest problem with the ESPN QBR is that no one outside of ESPN knows what the inputs or equations are. It's not verifiable, and no non-ESPN person can determine what weight they give to what variable or even what the variables are.
quote:Yes, I think sports journalists presents information in an ingenuous manner most of the time. There are some notorious sports journalists who don't, but they are few and far between.
are you really trying to argue that sports journalism presents information in an ingenuous manner most of the time? please
quote:What a load of crap.
that's the thing, i wouldn't use one statistical national ranking to say who was better/worse. for instance, Oregon allowed 413 ypg in 2011. The University of Memphis allowed 343 yards pergame, the 22nd best statistical defense in the country by yards per game. Memphis went 2-10 in 2011. They played in a much weaker conference and against much weaker opponents ooc. So are you trying to say emphatically that Memphis had a "better" defense than Oregon because a statistical metric has one ranked differently? They didn't have a single common opponent. Oregon faced much more high powered offenses week in and week out.
This is what I'm talking about. You are using data that is factual. I never said you weren't. I just think the manner in which you chose to apply your data is inherently biased, however, and you pick and choose what data you want to use that best suits the point you are trying to make.
No system of comparison is perfect. NONE. And no analysis can accurately account for every tiny difference in detail.
And yet we compare players' batting averages every day. Did the two batters face the same pitchers on the same day in the same park? Of course not. They might have never faced the same pitchers. They might have never played on the same day. They might have never played in the same parks.
We use rough analyses to compare statistics that contain factual differences. None of the analysis are perfect.
Using the defensive ranking of an opponent is as good a tool as any to conduct a simple analysis of how good that team's defense is. Show me a better readily obtainable statistic, and I'll use it.
But your argument that the system is not perfect is bullshite.
No system is perfect, and yet we, and everyone else, make comparisons everyday.
Babe Ruth was a better hitter than Sandy Koufax.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:11 pm to lsufball19
quote:It is disingenuous to include the championship games in a statistical comparison of Lee's and Jefferson's 2011 seasons.quote:no i have tried to get you to apply those two games to the rest of your analysis, something you have refused to do this entire thread. i have just said those two games happened, and you choosing to justify taking them out is disingenuous. nothing more, nothing less.
YOU are ATTEMPTING to discredit Jefferson based SOLELY on TWO games. That's what you have done for this ENTIRE thread.
The championship games are of a completely different character than the regular season.
The championship games were played against Top 5 Defenses. Lee faced a Top 5 Defense for a total of 7 pass attempts before he was yanked.
The BCSCG was particularly different in that it represented a rematch against a team was DESPERATE for redemption and had more than a month to prepare.
Lee has no stats from a game that is REMOTELY comparable to the SECCG and the BCSCG.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:12 pm to Salviati
quote:
Wrong. Most sports people do not manipulate stats or data. I'm sorry you are so jaded.
sure quote:
Yes, I think sports journalists presents information in an ingenuous manner most of the time. There are some notorious sports journalists who don't, but they are few and far between.
ok quote:
No system of comparison is perfect. NONE. And no analysis can accurately account for every tiny difference in detail.
smartest thing you've said this entire thread
quote:
And yet we compare players' batting averages every day. Did the two batters face the same pitchers on the same day in the same park? Of course not. They might have never faced the same pitchers. They might have never played on the same day. They might have never played in the same parks.
one thing you're missing, however, is comparing batting averages at the major league level, those players are playing against the same teams day in and day out, so it makes for a much closer comparison. the example i gave contained zero, yes, zero common opponent, and i think most people would agree the quality of oppnents isn't even in the same ballpark. had memphis and oregon played the same teams, who, in your opinion, would have the better numbers? see, this is where your "lee played the 'worst' defenses argument is disingenuous. your definition of best and worst is based off of a metric you, yourself, just admitted is not perfect. So why where you so emphatic in stating Lee played the "worst" defenses? It's ok, you can admit that you framed things in the manner you did to support your overall thesis. It's the same reason you used a three game sample. Sure you justified why, but that didn't make the omission of two games anymore correct to do.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:13 pm to lsufball19
quote:Lee regressed from his second year to his third year. Similarly, Jefferson regressed from second year to his third year.quote:I would hope that Jefferson in his third year would be better than in his second year too, but we all know how that turned out. i was giving him the benefit of the doubt because, for whatever reason, Jefferson's sophomore season was his best as a player.
I would certainly hope that Lee in his FIFTH year would perform better than Jefferson in his SECOND year.
Thank God Miles got rid of Crowton.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:14 pm to CptBengal
quote:Fresh post. Full of facts and analysis.quote:this is mind numbingly stupid.
Show me a graph of sports stats that "provide the 95% CIs" for the graph.
You are hiding behind statistics "math" because you have no statistics "facts" to support you.
I'm sure you're JJ now. Only he was this dumb.
Thanks for the bump.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:14 pm to Salviati
quote:
It is disingenuous to include the championship games in a statistical comparison of Lee's and Jefferson's 2011 seasons.
we'll just agree to disagree then. this is fricking stupid at this point. if you're not going to weigh the entirety of the season in your analysis then it's pointless to argue this. if we're not going to argue their performances based on the same set of data, then this will go on in circles forever
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:14 pm to lsufball19
quote:Remind me. Who had the #1 defense in 2011?quote:remind me who played the most snaps under center in those two games. TIA
Only the two games against Alabama were worse YPC games than the Oregon game.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:15 pm to chilge1
quote:
You gonna tell me that one of these quarterbacks was clearly better than the other?
when did i say clearly? i just said lee had a better overall season. the degree to which his season was better was never addressed. but i thank you for actually doing something Salviati won't, presenting all games in the 2011 season and not just the ones that suit one side of an argument
This post was edited on 7/31/15 at 2:17 pm
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