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re: What happened to Jordan Jefferson over the course of his career
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:19 pm to CptBengal
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:19 pm to CptBengal
quote:I've discussed REPEATEDLY why the SECCG and the BCSCG are not comparable games. They were championship games. They were NOT regular season games. They were played against Top 5 Defenses. One was played against a team desperate for redemption that had a month to prepare.quote:you're excluding data points to make your idiotic point.
First, I am referring to HIM, not THEY. See the capitalized "YOU"? That should be your first clue.
Second, read the thread.
That's just wrong.
I compared regular season games to regular season games.
I compared regulars season STARTS to regular season STARTS.
I compared a game against a #3 team to a game against a #3 team.
I compared apples to apples.
It's simply YOUR opinion that it's wrong.
1
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:19 pm to Salviati
quote:
disingenuous
disingenuous ... arbitrary ...
you say potaato
i say pototo
i mean apple
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:20 pm to Salviati
quote:
Remind me. Who had the #1 defense in 2011?
that's not an answer to the question i asked
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:20 pm to Salviati
quote:
I compared apples to apples.
except you didn't
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:25 pm to chilge1
quote:
You gonna tell me that one of these quarterbacks was clearly better than the other?
Just let it go.99 % of this board has no idea what they are looking at when watching a LSU football game. These are the same people that think it's a birthright to win 10 games a year yet fail to realize that 99.9% of all cfb programs can't win 9 games every year. These are the same people that think Miles starts qbs based on anything other than MILES thinks that qb gives lsu it's best chance to win. These are the same people that swear Lee was a far superior passer yet there are no statistics that separate the two. These are the same people that want us to take their opinion on a players leadership and character over that of the coaches that see them with the team.
They can't see that we had two average qbs in 2011 that both had good games and bad games.
In their version of reality JLEE didn't have a bad game against Oregon or Kentucky and JJ didn't have any good games in 2011. There are posters in this thread that say JJ played like absolute shite against Arky in 2011.
LET'S BE HONEST. JLee and JJ gave more to lsu football than all of us , in this thread, combined.
This post was edited on 7/31/15 at 6:49 pm
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:25 pm to lsufball19
quote:Baseball players have faced different levels of talent. Sometimes, zero common opponents.
one thing you're missing, however, is comparing batting averages at the major league level, those players are playing against the same teams day in and day out, so it makes for a much closer comparison. the example i gave contained zero, yes, zero common opponent, and i think most people would agree the quality of oppnents isn't even in the same ballpark. had memphis and oregon played the same teams, who, in your opinion, would have the better numbers?
quote:Again, I never said it was perfect. However, it's the BEST commonly available metric. Moreover, it's GENERALLY accurate. Yes, like any system you can find flaws.
had memphis and oregon played the same teams, who, in your opinion, would have the better numbers? see, this is where your "lee played the 'worst' defenses argument is disingenuous. your definition of best and worst is based off of a metric you, yourself, just admitted is not perfect.
But rather than complain about the metric that I use, show me a BETTER commonly available metric to determine the relative strength of an opponent's defense than the defensive ranking of the opponent.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:31 pm to lsufball19
quote:It IS the same set of data.quote:we'll just agree to disagree then. this is fricking stupid at this point. if you're not going to weigh the entirety of the season in your analysis then it's pointless to argue this. if we're not going to argue their performances based on the same set of data, then this will go on in circles forever
It is disingenuous to include the championship games in a statistical comparison of Lee's and Jefferson's 2011 seasons.
I am using the 2011 Regular Season for both Jefferson and Lee. I'm using All TWELVE games for BOTH Jefferson and Lee.
Jefferson (2011 Regular Season)
64.3%, 9.34 YPA, 5 TDs, 1 INT, INT% 1.43%, Overall Rating 163.48
Lee (2011 Regular Season)
62.3%, 7.82 YPA, 14 TDs, 3 INTs, INT% 1.80%, Overall Rating 152.04
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:32 pm to Salviati
quote:
It IS the same set of data.
I am using the 2011 Regular Season for both Jefferson and Lee. I'm using All TWELVE games for BOTH Jefferson and Lee.
You are excluding 2 data points.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:33 pm to lsufball19
quote:As I have said throughout this thread, I am presenting ALL regular season games for both QBs:
when did i say clearly? i just said lee had a better overall season. the degree to which his season was better was never addressed. but i thank you for actually doing something Salviati won't, presenting all games in the 2011 season and not just the ones that suit one side of an argument
Jefferson (2011 Regular Season)
64.3%, 9.34 YPA, 5 TDs, 1 INT, INT% 1.43%, Overall Rating 163.48
Lee (2011 Regular Season)
62.3%, 7.82 YPA, 14 TDs, 3 INTs, INT% 1.80%, Overall Rating 152.04
I don't know why you think I am just using three games for Jefferson when comparing their stats.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:35 pm to Salviati
why not include postseason games? they count in stat totals.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:35 pm to Salviati
quote:
Baseball players have faced different levels of talent. Sometimes, zero common opponents.
I don't see many people comparing a SWAC player's batting average to an SEC player's and then saying the SWAC player is just as good because...stats. no, they're smart enough to recognize the wide gap in talent and frame their analysis accordingly. same can be said for college football. no one would be foolish enough to say Jarvion Franklin of Western Michigan was a better running back than Nick Chubb because he had 10 more rushing TDs and more rushing yards.
So I ask why are you using the terms "best defense" and "worst defense" when describing the teams Lee and Jefferson started against? Too many of the basis for your arguments are soaked in confirmation bias that it's impossible to have a rational conversation with you. Anyone who watched Jefferson play his last two years in Baton Rouge were highly disappointed and saw a regression of a player that once appeared to have great potential. They saw Lee go from a goat in 2008 to redemption in 2011, leading the conference in passing efficiency.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:37 pm to lsufball19
quote:It's not my fault that you asked the wrong question.quote:that's not an answer to the question i asked
Remind me. Who had the #1 defense in 2011?
But let me state it another way. Do you think LSU had its two worst rushing games against Alabama because of who was playing QB at any particular time in the games or did LSU have its worst rushing games against Alabama because Alabama had the #1 defense in the nation?
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:38 pm to Salviati
quote:
It IS the same set of data.
i'm talking same set of date between you and i. you don't want to use all of 2011 for your analysis. i think it's disingenuous not to. if we can;t come to common ground on what set of data to compare the two, then this argument will go nowhere.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:39 pm to Salviati
quote:
As I have said throughout this thread, I am presenting ALL regular season games for both QBs
great, but that was not all the games that were played in 2011. again, you're not going to count them. and if that's how you want to formulate your opinion, then fine. i disagree with that, and that's not going to change
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:40 pm to Salviati
quote:
Not true
Yes it is. You try to leave out Jefferson's last two games so his stats are better than Lee's.
You discuss the last two games only when trying to defend Jefferson's play in them.
You're full of shite.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:40 pm to Rickdaddy4188
quote:
These are the same people that think Miles starts qbs based on anything other than MILES thinks that qb gives lsu it's best chance to win.
quote:
These are the same people that swear Lee was a far superior passer yet there are no statistics that separate the two.
quote:
These are the same people that want us to take their opinion on a players leadership and character over that of the coaches that see them with the team.
quote:
In their version of reality JLEE didn't have a bad game against Oregon or Kentucky and JJ didn't have any good games in 2011. Their are posters in thus thread that say JJ played like absolute shite against Arky in 2011.
quote:
LET'S BE HONEST. JLee and JJ gave more to lsu football than all of us , in thus thread, combined.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 2:54 pm to CptBengal
quote:Two data points.quote:You are excluding 2 data points.
It IS the same set of data.
I am using the 2011 Regular Season for both Jefferson and Lee. I'm using All TWELVE games for BOTH Jefferson and Lee.
You say that like the SECCG and the BCSCG are exactly the same as a regular season game against Northwestern State or Kentucky or Ole Miss.
I excluded the SECCG and the BCSCG for the very clear and rational reasons that I have REPEATEDLY given throughout this thread. Even so, I have provided extensive analysis of both of those games.
What I have not focused on in this thread, but merely touched upon, was the fact that Jefferson was an infinitely better runner than Lee, and I have not spent much time discussing Jefferson's positive impact on LSU's running game.
Jefferson's record setting 1,018 rushing yards is more than 25% of Lee's career passing yards. It's a truly significant number of rushing yards.
Moreover, not only did Jefferson run the ball better than Lee, LSU as a team ran the ball better when Jefferson was the QB.
The common meme on this board is that Lee was the better passer and Jefferson was the better runner. The truth is:
(1) Jefferson was a better runner,
(2) the LSU offense ran the ball better when Jefferson was the QB, and
(3) Jefferson was a better passer than Lee.
The only thing that is debatable is the extent to which Jefferson was a better passer.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 3:03 pm to Salviati
quote:
You say that like the SECCG and the BCSCG are exactly the same as a regular season game against Northwestern State or Kentucky or Ole Miss.
similarly, you are saying that Northwestern ST is the same as Oregon.
the argument is a failure. You can't apply a removal of data points based on arbitrary reasons, and then apply the rationale selectively.
fail.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 3:04 pm to Salviati
quote:
Two data points
Excluding outliers is not necessarily invalid, particularly when applied consistently.
What happens to these comparisons when Lee's worst two data points are excluded?
Posted on 7/31/15 at 3:07 pm to lsufball19
quote:Because the NCAA ranked them that way.
So I ask why are you using the terms "best defense" and "worst defense" when describing the teams Lee and Jefferson started against?
I used the NCAA's ranking of opponents' defenses to rank opponents' defenses. Do you have a better commonly available metric?
You acknowledge that no system is perfect. You fight this issue so hard. Yet you provide no alternative at all.
The best metric I could find to determine an opponents' defensive ranking was to look at the opponents' defensive ranking.
Here is one other thing for you to consider. The defenses that Lee and Jefferson faced in the 2011 regular season were not composed solely of Western Michigans or Missouris. Both Lee and Jefferson faced SEC defenses, and both faced OOC defenses. Of course, only Lee faced an FCS school, but they both faced good and bad defenses.
And my statistical comparison includes all twelve regular season games.
My point about the three Jefferson's starts is NOT about the average of those three starts. It's about the fact that ALL three of Jefferson's starts were more productive than ALL nine of Lee's starts.
Now, if you can show me that Jefferson started against ALL three of the WORST defenses that LSU faced in 2011, THEN you will have something. And I am all ears for your argument.
Until then, I'll continue to point out that ALL of Jefferson's starts were BETTER than ALL of Lee's starts.
quote:Jefferson regressed from his second to third year. That's true.
Anyone who watched Jefferson play his last two years in Baton Rouge were highly disappointed and saw a regression of a player that once appeared to have great potential.
quote:And as efficient as Lee was in the 2011 regular season, Jefferson was even MORE efficient. Jefferson had a higher efficiency number from his very first pass attempt against Florida until the end of the regular season.
They saw Lee go from a goat in 2008 to redemption in 2011, leading the conference in passing efficiency.
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