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re: What happened to Jordan Jefferson over the course of his career
Posted on 7/31/15 at 12:50 pm to lsufball19
Posted on 7/31/15 at 12:50 pm to lsufball19
quote:The ESPN QBR is an unreliable statistic because it's method is unknown outside of ESPN and it cannot be verified.
you think 20 total passes in 5 games is enough passes to make a reliable conclusion as to his quality of play? I guess you do because you think comparing a season of 40 passes to one of 269 passes is a fair comparison. Like I said, it's very easy to use statistics to "win" any argument, if you use them the right way. But as most sensible know, statistics can be very misleading. You had an entire argument about how ESPN's QBR isn't reliable, yet here you are doing the same thing, making your own rules as to what stats and what games should be applied to come up with your own conclusions
Everyday comparisons are made in the sports world using statistics that are generally accepted: BA, OBP, YPC, YPA, FT%, etc. And the people who do those comparisons are not generally completely unconcerned about the quantity of stats to be compared.
You are the only person who seems to be concerned about the comparison of Lee's 2008 season to his 2009 season. Indeed, in the spring of 2010, everyone who discussed Lee and Jefferson, and I do mean everyone, compared Lee's 2008 season to his 2009 season.
Raise the issue now, if you want, but it is fairly irrelevant.
2
Posted on 7/31/15 at 12:52 pm to Salviati
quote:
The ESPN QBR is an unreliable statistic because it's method is unknown outside of ESPN and it cannot be verified.
Verified how?
As long as a statistic is calculated using a common method, the statistic is valid.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 12:53 pm to lsufball19
here are some more fun "facts." Jarrett lee's senior season was more efficient than any one season in Jordan Jefferson's career. He threw more TDs per game in 2011 than Jefferson did in 2009. His TD/INT ratio in 2011 was better than any in Jefferson's career. His YPA attempt in 2011 was better than any year in Jefferson's career. His completion % in 2011 was better than any year in Jefferson's career.
Sorry, "i'm just here to teach"
Sorry, "i'm just here to teach"
This post was edited on 7/31/15 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 7/31/15 at 12:54 pm to lsufball19
quote:
use their entire bodies of work from the 2011 season, all 14 games
Jarrett Lee against Oregon, Alabama Pt.1:
Jordan Jefferson against Georgia, Alabama Pt. 2
13/29 122 yards 1 TD 2 INTs
16/30 83 yards 1 TD 1 INT, 20 rush 10 yards
Jarrett Lee Remaining Games:
Jordan Jefferson Remaining Games:
91/138 1184 yards 13 TDs 1 INTs
45/70 654 yards 5 TDs 1 INTs, 55 car 253 yards 3 TDs
So what is the big goddamn deal?!?!
This post was edited on 7/31/15 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 7/31/15 at 12:55 pm to lsufball19
quote:Jefferson threw a pass for a TDquote:Jefferson had 25 yards in that game
But in truth, the offense only scored 28 points.
So:
quote:
UGA
28-10
28.
25
Good job by the running backs to pick up their QB who was playing like crap
Jefferson was also the QB for the other three offensive TDs. In ALL FIVE of LSU's possessions in the second half of the SECCG, Jefferson either ran for, threw for, or executed an option or zone read for a first down. ALL FIVE. And again, LSU rushed better when Jefferson was QB, and the SECCG was the fourth highest YPC in 2011. (The only games with higher YPC were Jefferson's three regular season starts.)
The thing about an option and a zone read, the QB is integral to the play. In those plays, the QB occupies a defender, thereby allowing the RB, if the QB gives him the ball, to carry the ball for more yards. So even when the QB does not carry the ball on an option or zone read, the QB's participation in the play allows the RB to rush for more yards.
You remember the GOTC. You remember Ford getting an option pitch in OT that set up the winning FG? That play worked because Jefferson was the QB.
The same principle applies in the SECCG. Lee could not run the option or zone read effectively because Lee was not a threat to run; thus, Lee did not occupy a defender.
That option to Ford in the GOTC does NOT work if Lee was the QB.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 12:56 pm to Salviati
quote:
The ESPN QBR is an unreliable statistic because it's method is unknown outside of ESPN and it cannot be verified.
i never tried to say it wasn't unreliable. i said your analysis, as well, was unreliable and implied you were being a hypocrite
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:00 pm to lsufball19
quote:You are simply incorrect.
you will continue to present facts in a misleading light. no one has really tried to argue your stats are incorrect, just that they are inappropriately applied and gerrymandered to support your own inherent bias. it's fine. you accuse people of inherent bias against jefferson because they hate him as a person. ok. well, you pick and choose how to apply statistical data to prove your bias that jefferson was better than lee. one can just as easily take different, factual, statistical data for like and apply it to "prove" he was better. you're not teaching anyone anything. you're really doing nothing more than showing your own arrogance
I am comparing apples to apples.
Both Jefferson and Lee participated in the 2011 regular season. I compared their stats. Apples to apples.
Both Jefferson and Lee had starts in the 2011 regular season. I compared their stats. Apples to apples.
Both Jefferson and Lee had opportunities to lead LSU's offense against bad teams in the 2011 regulars. To Lee's benefit, Lee had MORE opportunities against bad teams. I compared their stats. Apples to apples.
Both Jefferson and Lee had starts against the #3 team in the 2011 regular season. I compared their stats. Apples to apples.
I have presented the facts. I compared their stats. Apples to apples.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:01 pm to Salviati
quote:
Jefferson threw a pass for a TD
so did Jarrett Lee against Oregon. Would you say he played a good game? I mean the offense had FIVE scoring drives and Jarrett Lee was the QB for every single one of them, one being a beautiful back shoulder throw to Rueben Randle for a TD. Jarrett Lee led LSU to a score on 4 of the 6 drives in the 2nd half. I mean you know how ridiculous this sounds, right? Or would the more accurate description that defense, special teams, and the running game were 90% responsible for the outcome?
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:03 pm to lsufball19
quote:You see ONLY what you want to see.quote:yes, Jefferson was a better runner than Lee. So what?
Player . . . . . . .Rushes . . . . Net . . . . TDs . . Rating . . . Comp % . . . . Yards . . . . Ints . . . TDs
Jefferson . . . . . . 359 . . . . 1018 . . . . 12 . . . 127.84 . . . 58.55% . . . . 4733 . . . . . 20 . . . . 34
Lee . . . . . . . . . . . 30 . . . . . .-181 . . . . . 0 . . . 126.07 . . . 56.11% . . . . 3949 . . . . . .21 . . . . 32
Who had a better QB Rating?
Who had a better completion percentage?
Who threw fewer interceptions?
Who scored more TDs?
And by the way, two things to consider:
(1) Rushing yards count just as much as passing yards.
(2) Rushing TDs count just as much as passing TDs.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:07 pm to lsufball19
quote:The reliability is "very low"?quote:and the reliability of that conclusion, based on the absence of enough data, is very low
His stats were worse in 2009 than in 2008.
And yet sports people make similar comparisons every hour of every day.
quote:As I have REPEATEDLY said, I considered all of Jefferson's games in 2011. The stats that I have posted include MORE than three games.quote:so three games? great
Reading is fundamental.
quote:
In this particular case, I am using defensive ranking of the opponent to define "worst."
quote::sigh:
why did you use that? why do you feel that's an iron clad ranking of best to worst?
What would you use to rank opponents when considering the statistics of the QB?
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:12 pm to lsufball19
quote:
never said it was
quote:YOU are ATTEMPTING to discredit Jefferson based SOLELY on TWO games. That's what you have done for this ENTIRE thread.
i also don't attempt to use one game sample sizes in a comparison because that's unreliable. i'm just trying to use their entire bodies of work from the 2011 season, all 14 games, but apparently a couple of y'all don't like doing that
I have happily and repeatedly discussed All of the games in the 2011 season.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:17 pm to Salviati
quote:
I have happily and repeatedly discussed All games in the 2011 season
Except when Jefferson's last two games make his season statistics worse than Lee's...
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:18 pm to lsufball19
quote:I would certainly hope that Lee in his FIFTH year would perform better than Jefferson in his SECOND year.
here are some more fun "facts." Jarrett lee's senior season was more efficient than any one season in Jordan Jefferson's career. He threw more TDs per game in 2011 than Jefferson did in 2009.
quote:I completely agree that LEE in his FIFTH year performed better than Jefferson in his first THREE years.
His TD/INT ration in 2011 was better than any in Jefferson's career. His YPA attempt in 2011 was better than any year in Jefferson's career. His completion % in 2011 was better than any year in Jefferson's career.
I completely agree with you that Lee greatly improved for his FIFTH year. Kragthorpe's influence had a profound impact on both Jefferson's and Lee's performances. Getting out from Crowton's offense also had a profound impact on their performances.
quote:Teach on brother. Teach on.
Sorry, "i'm just here to teach"
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:19 pm to Salviati
quote:
His stats were worse in 2009 than in 2008.
and the reliability of that conclusion, based on the absence of enough data, is very low
The reliability is "very low"?
And yet sports people make similar comparisons every hour of every day.
yes, clown. As the number of data points goes down, the variability goes WAY up.
the fact you didnt provide the 95% CIs for your little graphs is very very telling.
And yes, pantheons of intelligence are the sports talking heads. Pantheons.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:20 pm to Salviati
quote:
YOU are ATTEMPTING to discredit Jefferson based SOLELY on TWO games.
No. They are just including the entirety of the 2011 data set.
that isnt 2 games, that's ALL games. fail.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:21 pm to lsufball19
quote:Please don't leave out the other side of the equation.quote:i never tried to say it wasn't unreliable. i said your analysis, as well, was unreliable and implied you were being a hypocrite
The ESPN QBR is an unreliable statistic because it's method is unknown outside of ESPN and it cannot be verified.
The ESPN QBR method is unknown outside of ESPN and it cannot be verified.
Sports people routinely, daily, hourly, compare seasons even when one season has fewer statistics than the other. And in 2010, the Tiger Rant nearly continuously compared Lee's 2008 season to his 2009 season . . . despite your qualms with that comparison today.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:23 pm to Salviati
quote:
it cannot be verified.
what do you mean by "verified"?
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:29 pm to CptBengal
quote:
what do you mean by "verified"
Outcomes ... otherwise, we are trapped with verifying the fact that something, which by definition cannot be verified, is or is not verifiable.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:30 pm to lsufball19
quote:There is an inherent difference on the impact on the rushing offense between (1) an option and zone read QB, and (2) an immobile pocket passer. That is ELEMENTARY football. LSU rushed far better with Jefferson at QB than with Lee at QB. Those are facts.
so did Jarrett Lee against Oregon. Would you say he played a good game? I mean the offense had FIVE scoring drives and Jarrett Lee was the QB for every single one of them, one being a beautiful back shoulder throw to Rueben Randle for a TD. Jarrett Lee led LSU to a score on 4 of the 6 drives in the 2nd half. I mean you know how ridiculous this sounds, right? Or would the more accurate description that defense, special teams, and the running game were 90% responsible for the outcome?
LSU's four best YPC games in 2011 were Jefferson starts, and one of those four best YPC games was the SECCG.
On the other hand, Oregon was the third worst YPC game. Only the two games against Alabama were worse YPC games than the Oregon game.
Posted on 7/31/15 at 1:32 pm to zsav77
quote:Not true.quote:Except when Jefferson's last two games make his season statistics worse than Lee's...
I have happily and repeatedly discussed All games in the 2011 season
This thread is replete with my posts about the SECCG and the BCSCG.
I have discussed both the SECCG and the BCS CG at great length.
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