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Started By
Message
re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 12/4/14 at 9:00 pm to Big12fan
Posted on 12/4/14 at 9:00 pm to Big12fan
Alpha who is begging his citizens to repatriate foreign currency. He broke.
It will be interesting to see how much shite the Russian citizens put up with before stuff gets touchy for Putin.
It will be interesting to see how much shite the Russian citizens put up with before stuff gets touchy for Putin.
2
Posted on 12/4/14 at 9:11 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
quote:
Me.
Well, it might be you but it certainly isn't rational.
I don't think you understand risk.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 10:20 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
Obama doing work on Putin.
Posted on 12/5/14 at 4:39 am to Bard
quote:
That looks like a good incentive for them to start a war with the former-Soviet Baltic countries.
This is the real danger. Press them to the ropes and they'll start to get desperate and desperate people do very unwise things.
Posted on 12/5/14 at 4:43 am to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:
It will be interesting to see how much shite the Russian citizens put up with before stuff gets touchy for Putin.
Kremlin controlled media will blame the west. Putin will still be loved.
Posted on 12/5/14 at 5:23 am to StraightCashHomey21
No doubt, people like to use the word "Sheeple" often, but those Eastern Slavic Russkiyes are the definition of the word.
Posted on 12/6/14 at 3:20 am to Iosh
quote:
This is a short ETF amusingly referred to as "Russia Bear." If you think Russia's economy is about to skip the tracks entirely it might not hurt to speculate here a bit.
birdmanhandrub.gif
Posted on 12/15/14 at 10:34 am to Iosh
It finally happened 
(There is a running joke in Russia that the price of oil, the price of the dollar, and Putin's age would all be the same before the end of the year.)
EDIT: Sberbank is under $4. I hope y'all jumped on my RUSS tip because that shite is going to the moon today.
(There is a running joke in Russia that the price of oil, the price of the dollar, and Putin's age would all be the same before the end of the year.)
EDIT: Sberbank is under $4. I hope y'all jumped on my RUSS tip because that shite is going to the moon today.
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 10:39 am
Posted on 12/15/14 at 12:09 pm to cwill
quote:
I don't think you understand risk.
I understand perfectly well. Something that has been predicted by the OP as effectively a 100% chance of happening is able to be traded as if it were only a 6.6% chance as of today. It's highly asymmetric in the favor of the person saying 100%. That's the very definition of good risk management: focusing on trades with limited and known downside for an upside that is many multiples of your capital at risk.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 12:34 pm to Big Scrub TX
I'm not saying Russia will default, but I am definitely on board with the idea that LSURussian is correct in being way more pessimistic about their prospects than "the markets" have been.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 5:57 pm to Iosh
Russia announced a 6.5% rate hike today. This less than a week after a 1% rate hike.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 7:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:You might understand risk but what you are totally clueless about is Russia.
I understand perfectly well.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 7:53 pm to LSURussian
Up to 17%...wow.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 7:57 pm to LSURussian
War will break before a default occur.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 7:59 pm to 1234567VFL
Why? It didn't in 1998 when Russia last defaulted on its debt. Besides, Russia is already involved in a war.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:02 pm to LSURussian
Things are a little different this time, but you are correct that a war is already going. A big one will occur if the sacntions continue.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:05 pm to LSU0358
quote:
Up to 17%...wow.
Right, and that's the Central Bank's overnight lending rate. Imagine trying to get a rate on a five-year loan.
What some may have missed is the CBR increased its dollar lending limit to banks from $1.5 million to $5 million. That means banks are desparate to obtain dollars, probably because they can't meet their dollar obligations coming due, including meeting their customers' demands to withdraw their dollars from the banks.
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 8:07 pm
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:12 pm to LSURussian
Yes, it's ugly.
Don't know if I buy an all out war some are mentioning. Wars take money, and Russia has none. I lean towards trouble being caused with Putin jacking up natural gas prices the first big cold spell Europe has, or cutting it off.
Don't know if I buy an all out war some are mentioning. Wars take money, and Russia has none. I lean towards trouble being caused with Putin jacking up natural gas prices the first big cold spell Europe has, or cutting it off.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:15 pm to LSU0358
Do wars burn money or natural resources?
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:16 pm to 1234567VFL
Both.
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