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Started By
Message
re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:19 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:19 pm to LSURussian
Money is a fantasy, ones and zeroes on a computer, natural resources are real, whoever use their chips better, will win the upcoming battle.
3
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:21 pm to 1234567VFL
quote:ZEROHEDGE DOT COM
Money is a fantasy, ones and zeroes on a computer, natural resources are real, whoever use their chips better, will win the upcoming battle.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:22 pm to 1234567VFL
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:23 pm to LSURussian
What brings your laughther? Is it not true that whoever use their real resources better will win in the end?
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:24 pm to LSURussian
Are you one of the "ones" that can not be named?
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:26 pm to 1234567VFL
You're weird. Carry on.....
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:28 pm to 1234567VFL
History disagrees with money being a fantasy.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:29 pm to LSURussian
Thanks! I will!
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:29 pm to LSU0358
Not so, History just agree that the masses are stupid.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:36 pm to 1234567VFL
quote:
Not so, History just agree that the masses are stupid.
What does history say about people who don't know how to conjugate verbs correctly?
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:58 pm to LSURussian
It says that perhaps english is not their native language.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 8:56 am to LSURussian
quote:
The ruble plunged as much as 19 percent to 80.10, before trading at 72.99 by 5:12 p.m. in Moscow, amid speculation Russia will resort to capital controls after a 650 basis-point increase in borrowing costs to an 11-year high proved ineffective.
The Russian government called a meeting to discuss the financial crisis engulfing the country following the currency’s biggest drop since 1998, the year Russia defaulted on local debt.
LINK
Posted on 12/16/14 at 8:57 am to LSURussian
Is this in any way bad for us?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:00 am to baybeefeetz
quote:Yes. It's possible Putin will become even more militaristic in his European gambit. That may be the only way he keeps the Russians distracted from the pile of crap that is their economy.
Is this in any way bad for us?
Also, it's unclear how many and which foreign banks own Russian debt.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:10 am to LSURussian
Looking bad for Vlad. If I were living in an apartment highrise in Moscow now, I would be checking the basement for explosives every hour...
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:13 am to LSURussian
This has been fricking insane this morning. 650bp hike in rates completely backfired and the ruble was down as much as 19%. 
The schism between Putin and the central bank will have to be handled otherwise Russia could spiral down to 1998 areas.
I wish I could post a picture of the USD/RUB volatility surface from my Bloomberg.
The schism between Putin and the central bank will have to be handled otherwise Russia could spiral down to 1998 areas. I wish I could post a picture of the USD/RUB volatility surface from my Bloomberg.
This post was edited on 12/16/14 at 9:20 am
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:26 am to LSURussian
quote:
LSURussian
I thought for the last couple of months that you might be right about this, but I disagreed with the 6mo timeline. That black gold is really expediting the panic it seems.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:26 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:What schism? The CBR's Governor, akin to our Fed Chairman, was appointed by Putin.
The schism between Putin and the central bank will have to be handled
One article I read this morning said she got Putin's permission to raise the CBR's rate last night before she announced the increase.
The issue is people who grew up thinking a government command economy works the way the government orders it to are still in charge of Russia.
The concept of 'real' market forces eludes them completely.
_________________________________
Fwiw, I am starting to read stories in the media that Russia defaulting on its sovereign debt is no longer out of the question.
The thinking is coming around to what I've said when I started this thread: Russia's "massive" hard currency reserves may be an illusion. Russia is now reportedly selling some of its gold to raise dollars to support the ruble. Why would they be selling their gold reserves if the CBR actually owns a huge amount of dollars?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:30 am to mostbesttigerfanever
quote:I've admitted much earlier in this thread that my six month prediction was likely too pessimistic. I probably should have said "within a year".
but I disagreed with the 6mo timeline.
But if I edit the title now it will just look silly so I've decided to let it ride.
I was predicting Russia's default before anyone else was even considering the possibility.
I chalk that up as a minor vindication for me.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:32 am to LSURussian
Da, comrade
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