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re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months

Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:00 pm to
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:00 pm to
Let's get down to what everyone is wondering and the real question to be asked:


How does this affect our chances of scoring some hot Russian poon? Increase, right? American dollar so big.
Posted by StraightCashHomey21
Aberdeen,NC
Member since Jul 2009
125465 posts
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:51 pm to
quote:

How long before the common people in Russia feel the pain?



they probably have always been esp with the rise in price of food.

its a very have and have not place with people depending on gov't benefits.

quote:

Public sentiment is something Vlad Putin cares more about than he lets on.



he controls their media and pays their benefits of course they love him.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126965 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

Russia canceled tomorrow’s ruble-bond auction after an oil-price slump sent the nation’s borrowing costs soaring to a five-year high.

The Finance Ministry pulled the offering due to “unfavorable market conditions,” according to a statement on its website today.

LINK
Posted by aaronb023
TeamBunt CEO
Member since Feb 2005
11774 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 7:09 pm to
Posted by Asgard Device
The Daedalus
Member since Apr 2011
11562 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 7:40 pm to
Will the economic collapse cause Putin to get ousted anytime soon?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126965 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 7:40 pm to
No.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126965 posts
Posted on 10/19/14 at 9:29 pm to
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
33257 posts
Posted on 10/19/14 at 11:07 pm to
This is going to sound really crappy, but I wonder if Russia's financial issues will open up the doors for international adoption again. Locals can't afford to adopt even if they could get past the national orphan stigma. What gives 1st nationalism or hunger?
Posted by Zahrim
McCamey Texas
Member since Mar 2009
7667 posts
Posted on 10/19/14 at 11:13 pm to
i doubt it with Putin in charge. his ego won't allow for Russia to give their children to other people.
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
33257 posts
Posted on 10/19/14 at 11:24 pm to
Sigh. I agree. But I know those babies are starving.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126965 posts
Posted on 10/19/14 at 11:34 pm to
I don't think Putin will open adoptions back up to Americans. He has spoken too often about maintaining Russian "purity."

Plus Russia's population is experiencing a multi-decade decline so they need those children just to keep from losing even more population.
This post was edited on 10/19/14 at 11:35 pm
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
33257 posts
Posted on 10/20/14 at 7:29 am to
You're correct. However, the pop action decline has been an issue for a while. If they are keeping these kids and need them, do you think they will invest more resources into their care & development so they are more likely to.contribute positively to society?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126965 posts
Posted on 10/20/14 at 8:16 am to
quote:

If they are keeping these kids and need them, do you think they will invest more resources into their care & development so they are more likely to.contribute positively to society?
No. Russians just don't have the same capacity for compassion towards people they don't know that Americans do.
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32121 posts
Posted on 10/20/14 at 8:26 am to
Thanks for the insight, Russian.

What factors lead to their vulnerability as of late? How would a Russian default impact America or Western Europe?

What will Moscow do to counter this or prevent this from occurring?
This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 8:31 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126965 posts
Posted on 10/20/14 at 8:37 am to
quote:

What factors lead to their vulnerability as of late?
Pride. The Russians have felt disrespected by the rest of the developed world since the fall of the Soviet Union.

quote:

How would a Russian default impact America or Western Europe?
It will mainly affect the European banks that didn't learn a lesson from the 1998 Russian debt default and loaned Russia and Russian banks money again. Other than that, not much. Russia doesn't manufacture much of anything for export. When was the last time you went into a retail store and saw "Made in Russia" printed on the box?

quote:

What will Moscow do to counter this or prevent this from occurring?
Blame the foreigners for loaning them too much money. The danger, as I see it, is Putin might try to distract the Russian people's attention away from their financial woes by finding an excuse to move into the Baltics relying upon the immense emotions of nationalism that is happening in Russia today.

This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 8:39 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126965 posts
Posted on 11/5/14 at 1:30 pm to
The Central Bank of Russia is moving towards allowing the ruble to freely float. This is an admission that it can't stop the currency's decline without running out of hard currency reserves.

It the ruble is allowed to freely float, it will probably drop by a double digit percentage decline within a week.

LINK
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25395 posts
Posted on 11/5/14 at 4:12 pm to
This is worth bumping.

Sorry if you already covered this. What American institutions have the most exposure to Russian sovereign debt presently?

Also, I know you posted this as a potential excuse....

quote:

He will just say the economic sanctions put on Russia by the West caused a capital outflow, hurt their oil exports, yada, yada, yada.

....but isn't there at least some truth to this?
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 4:16 pm
Posted by Starrkevious Ringo
Member since Jul 2014
723 posts
Posted on 11/5/14 at 4:15 pm to
I saw this earlier. Every day is like Christmas at the Kremlin these days

Where have you gone, Misha Kasyanov
The nation turns its lonely eyes to you
Woo woo woo

Do you really think Volodya is dumb/desperate enough to mess with the Baltics next?
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 4:18 pm
Posted by CollegeFBRules
Member since Oct 2008
24274 posts
Posted on 11/5/14 at 7:44 pm to
on a top quality thread.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126965 posts
Posted on 11/5/14 at 7:55 pm to
I don't know what American institutions have exposure to Russian sovereign debt. I've read that European banks have the largest exposure but that doesn't mean US banks are without risk.

Regarding your question about there being some truth that the international sanctions have caused the Russian financial mess, yes, that is true.

But what Putin won't say is the sanctions were initiated as a response to his aggression against Ukraine. I would be very surprised if the average Russian citizen knows why the sanctions were put in place because of Putin's control over the Russian media.
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