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re: ESPN Summer Forecast - Pelicans picked 10th in the West

Posted on 8/12/14 at 4:17 pm to
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38820 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 4:17 pm to
west is tough, not exactly earthshaking news i realize
after the 1st 3, anything could happen

spurs, thunder, clips...then a free for all
50 wins might get you a 7-8 seed
Posted by Cap Crunch
Fire Alleva
Member since Dec 2010
54189 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 4:20 pm to
I found c on z's twitter
quote:

@Tommydiculous: Wait what? So Portland is 10 games better than my Pelicans? #ESPNforecast are you serious? We got the third-best player in the league. #48Wins

Posted by c on z
Zamunda
Member since Mar 2009
127413 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 4:54 pm to

Good try though.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30111 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 6:07 pm to
quote:

I can't believe they are only giving the Pelicans 5 more wins after adding Asik and assuming they won't be decimated by injuries.

39 wins is about what the Pelicans probably would have had if they were more healthy last year.


Sounding like this board is turning you into a pelican fan already PTM. Hurry up and get on, we got a seat for you
Posted by pleading the fifth
Member since Feb 2006
3896 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 6:35 pm to
Assuming we stay relatively healthy in respect to last season, a 2 win improvement would be monumentally disappointing in my view.
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
9792 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 6:49 pm to
I actually think it is generous to put us 10th. I was thinking more like 11th. We finished 12th last year and nobody in front of us really lost anything (except the Wolves).

We still have the most injury prone team in the league. 3 of our main guys (Asik, Anderson and Holiday) all missed close to 50 games last season. Plus Davis, Evans and Gordon have missed at least 10 games each of the past two seasons. It's unrealistic to expect all these guys to actually be healthy and play a whole season together.

They have a logjam in the backcourt and a gapping hole at SF. It's one of the strangest rosters in the league with no history of success. Why would anybody, outside of a Pelican fan, really expect this team to do anything?
Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 7:02 pm to
quote:

They will be mad.


One may even say they will be rustled.
Posted by Doink
Greatna
Member since Sep 2012
413 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 7:03 pm to
GTFO BRmark. Nobody likes your negativity and "most injury prone team in the league" Bad luck at injuries last year doesn't mean we are injury prone for future seasons.


Jimmies. Are. Rustled.
This post was edited on 8/12/14 at 7:08 pm
Posted by Fearthehat0307
Dallas, TX
Member since Dec 2007
65256 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 7:05 pm to
quote:

I actually think it is generous to put us 10th. I was thinking more like 11th. We finished 12th last year and nobody in front of us really lost anything (except the Wolves).

We still have the most injury prone team in the league. 3 of our main guys (Asik, Anderson and Holiday) all missed close to 50 games last season. Plus Davis, Evans and Gordon have missed at least 10 games each of the past two seasons. It's unrealistic to expect all these guys to actually be healthy and play a whole season together.

They have a logjam in the backcourt and a gapping hole at SF. It's one of the strangest rosters in the league with no history of success. Why would anybody, outside of a Pelican fan, really expect this team to do anything?
I am really glad you are here to keep me from getting to excited about our team
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 7:07 pm to
quote:

I actually think it is generous to put us 10th. I was thinking more like 11th. We finished 12th last year and nobody in front of us really lost anything (except the Wolves).


Rockets didn't improve(reverse actually),Suns played over their head. Blazers won't suprise and won't have the same injury luck(they were basically our opposites). Nuggets are still mediocre.

quote:

We still have the most injury prone team in the league. 3 of our main guys (Asik, Anderson and Holiday) all missed close to 50 games last season. Plus Davis, Evans and Gordon have missed at least 10 games each of the past two seasons. It's unrealistic to expect all these guys to actually be healthy and play a whole season together.


Holiday(only missed 9 in his entire career) and Anderson(missed only 6 games in the previous 2 years) were both generally healthy. Asik played every single game prior to last year. Davis had small freak injuries that have more to do with his body developing/bad luck than anything.

You're confusing bad luck for injury prone when the vast majority of those guys played the majority of the games in their career sans gordon.


Will everyone miss a few games? Sure but their prior history and the freak nature of some those injuries(Holiday/Anderson especially) suggest otherwise.

quote:

They have a logjam in the backcourt and a gapping hole at SF.


Oh the logjam again. Are you considering it a logjam because tyreke(who'll mostly play SF) and Gordon are listed as SGs? Positions are becoming more vague by the day.

They just need someone competent at SF,not a stud.

quote:

It's one of the strangest rosters in the league with no history of success.


It's not like they had much oppurtunity. The roster buildup is strange to traditionalists but that mindset is shifting.

Go look at their offensive rating when healthy.

quote:

Why would anybody, outside of a Pelican fan, really expect this team to do anything?


People that aren't idiots about basketball or just unnecessarily pessimestic because of fear or just overlooking things.

Anyone competent can see the potential on this team.


Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30111 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 7:11 pm to
Asik - held out a good bit of the season because they were trying to trade him/disgruntled, etc. the rest it was what, a knee injury? Previous year he played 82 games.

Anderson - big injury that he should be fully recovered from. Also add the two years prior he rarely missed games.

Holiday - first major injury that caused him to miss that many games, pretty healthy otherwise.

Davis - concussion protocol his first year made him miss what 5 games? Last year would have been free to play if we were still in contention (missed 6 games) and the most games he missed were due to a fracture in his hand.

Gordon - we know he is, but he still played up til we were out of contention last year. He was the 2nd healthiest player on our team, that shouldn't be happening in a normal year.

Evans - pretty much had his ankle touch the ground, but didn't even miss a game due to that.

They probably won't play all 82, but most of the injuries are just freak injuries to Anderson, Holiday, and Asik.

Evans showed that he can keep playing even injured, Gordon is fragile because of his knees, and Davis if he bulks up should be fine. Broken hands aren't a common occurrence and concussion protocol is just safe measures.
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
9792 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 7:51 pm to
quote:

Rockets didn't improve(reverse actually),Suns played over their head. Blazers won't suprise and won't have the same injury luck(they were basically our opposites). Nuggets are still mediocre.


I don't think the Rockets fall 7 or 8 spots. They might actually have a better mix of players. The Blazers stocked their bench and got deeper. The Suns are the youngest team in the league and get back Bledsoe, plus added Thomas (an awesome 3rd guard).

If we are counting injured players coming back, the Nuggets will jump higher than us. They were just as decimated, if not more. Plus they made a huge move adding Afflao and drafting Harris. They are one of the deepest teams in the league.

quote:

You're confusing bad luck for injury prone when the vast majority of those guys played the majority of the games in their career sans gordon.


I don't know what else to call guys that miss a lot of games. Also, your information is just way off. Holiday missed a ton of time the year before (21 games in two seasons). Anderson has missed major time every season, except his 1st season with us. Asik has missed time and so has Davis.

quote:

Oh the logjam again. Are you considering it a logjam because tyreke(who'll mostly play SF) and Gordon are listed as SGs? Positions are becoming more vague by the day.


I call it a logjam because we have 3 guards that basically thrive by having the ball in their hands, initiating the offense. All 3 are hybrid PG/SG. We still haven't seen it work yet, mainly because of injury. So the jury is still out. It's strange to bash projections that doubt it will work.

quote:

Go look at their offensive rating when healthy.


I'm not pining all my hopes to a 10 game stretch in the middle of December.

quote:

People that aren't idiots about basketball or just unnecessarily pessimestic because of fear or just overlooking things. Anyone competent can see the potential on this team.


People recognize the potential of Davis. That's the only reason anybody gives us any hope or credit. They figure he is a star and he can drag the rest of the team to a higher level.

This post was edited on 8/12/14 at 7:54 pm
Posted by VOR
Member since Apr 2009
63540 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 8:09 pm to
quote:

PortCityTiger24


Quick question. You're not the "PortCity" poster who had the gonads to call me a whiny bitch, are you? Just checking.
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 8:23 pm to
quote:

I don't think the Rockets fall 7 or 8 spots. They might actually have a better mix of players.


Outside of harden/howard they're not that impressive.

quote:

The Blazers stocked their bench and got deeper.


They can't keep hoping to ride their starters like they did and expect success.

quote:

The Suns are the youngest team in the league and get back Bledsoe, plus added Thomas (an awesome 3rd guard).


What? The suns/bledsoe aren't on speaking terms.He might take a QO but who knows how he'll perform. They have the same logjam you say the pelicans have. The pels have a much better frontcourt.

quote:

If we are counting injured players coming back, the Nuggets will jump higher than us. They were just as decimated, if not more. Plus they made a huge move adding Afflao and drafting Harris. They are one of the deepest teams in the league.


People say this every year and nothing happens. That team has no real star and a bunch of swiss army knife do it alls.

quote:

I don't know what else to call guys that miss a lot of games. Also, your information is just way off. Holiday missed a ton of time the year before (21 games in two seasons). Anderson has missed major time every season, except his 1st season with us. Asik has missed time and so has Davis.



My info isn't way off:

Holiday Games played:

09: 73
10: 82
11: 65(66 game season)
12: 78

Yeah "injury prone"

Anderson averaged 65ish GP his first 3 years but he was a bench guy playing 15 min. He's only missed 6 games in the 2 years he's started.

I explained davis and asik,did you read?

quote:

I call it a logjam because we have 3 guards that basically thrive by having the ball in their hands, initiating the offense. All 3 are hybrid PG/SG.


Gordon is no PG and is better off ball. Tyreke can play 3 positions and Holiday is primarily a PG that can play the 2 if needed(he's a career 38% 3 PT guy).

The projectors don't do their due dilligence with smaller market teams.

quote:

People recognize the potential of Davis. That's the only reason anybody gives us any hope or credit. They figure he is a star and he can drag the rest of the team to a higher level.


So basically it's a 2006 kobe or LBJ situation to outsiders? Yes he's a star but has a more talented supporting cast than the doubters realize.

The negativity/pessimism around this team astounds me from some of you. Is it because of not building "slow"(that's almost never worked)? It's basically the mindset that small market=tank.


Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
9792 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 8:48 pm to
You are right. I forgot about the strike year, so it's not as bad as I thought.

quote:

The negativity/pessimism around this team astounds me from some of you. Is it because of not building "slow"(that's almost never worked)? It's basically the mindset that small market=tank.


I'm not being negative or a pessimist. These projections come out every season. Then everybody on the board bashes the "experts" for not loving our team. I don't get it.

Last season, this same thread came up and we had this same debate. I got the same hate for siding with the guys that doubted what we built. What should I or guys that feel like me be doing or saying? It's just not that good of a team. It has big arse holes and question marks. That's not hard to see.

quote:

Gordon is no PG and is better off ball. Tyreke can play 3 positions and Holiday is primarily a PG that can play the 2 if needed(he's a career 38% 3 PT guy). The projectors don't do their due dilligence with smaller market teams.


It didn't work last year. I'm sorry. Maybe they will adjust, but they didn't mix. Evans can't play 3 positions. If he could, why the F isn't he playing SF. That's where we need him. Gordon has always played better with the ball in his hands. That's when he thrived in college and with the Clippers.

You may have a point with the small market stuff. But how much time should they really spend on our team? There is no mystery. I'd rather be projected low, then shock everybody by sneaking ahead and having a great year.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 8:49 pm to
quote:

NBA on ESPN?@ESPNNBA·3 mins
ESPN Summer Forecast, No. 10 in West: New Orleans Pelicans (39-43). #ESPNForecast


Assuming health, that's a very low win total estimate. They may very well finish 10th in the conference, but I doubt it's under .500 if there is reasonable health. They certainly won't finish 10 games out of the 8 seed in that scenario.

quote:

@LtKumar23: Pelicans could have won five more games last year. It's not like our best six players missed over 200 games combined or anything.


Who is Kumar? That dude is a Pels internet boss. He's everywhere.
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49517 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 8:57 pm to
quote:

I'm not being negative or a pessimist.


Posted by Eman5805
West Bank
Member since Nov 2010
5098 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 9:08 pm to
We lost a great many close games. Games that with a fully healthy roster and a more experienced AD we don't lose.

I don't think the NBA will be ready for what we could presumably bring to the table.

If only I believed in our head coach as much as I do in our roster.
Posted by Colonel Flagg
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
22800 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

If he could, why the F isn't he playing SF.


82 games says he played the majority of his minutes at SF last season.


This team is very underrated. The Pelicans will most likely have a 20 PPG guy coming off the bench.

This team should see more than a 5 game improvement.

1. Highly doubtful they see the injuries they saw last season.
2. Everyone is saying Davis is even better than last season.
3. Asik is an elite rebounder/defender at center.
4. Monty can't be so stupid to not play Evans more than he did at the beginning of the season.
5. They didn't lose any valuable talent in the offseason.
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
9792 posts
Posted on 8/12/14 at 9:36 pm to
quote:

This team is very underrated. The Pelicans will most likely have a 20 PPG guy coming off the bench.


By who? I think most people know what the team is and what it can be. But it's a big leap to put them in the top 5 seeds of the West. I thought this team was about a .500 team last year. With the improvements and some injury luck, I can see a touch above that at around 44-45 wins. That's still well out of the playoffs, if it breaks down similar to last season.

There is no chance we have a bench guy sniff 20 ppg. Anderson's minutes are going to get cut alot with Asik coming aboard. Davis will be the only guy over 20 ppg. If everybody is healthy (sharing touches and minutes), Davis might be the only guy over 15 ppg.

quote:

This team should see more than a 5 game improvement


I'm thinking around 8-10 games is realistic. Unless Davis makes a monster leap. Then anything is possible.

I'll try not to be so negative.

quote:

4. Monty can't be so stupid to not play Evans more than he did at the beginning of the season.


I'm really curious where or how he plays him. This is the biggest question mark for the team. I think the whole season kind of rides on if they solve this riddle. I know Evans will put up numbers, but it goes beyond that.

quote:

5. They didn't lose any valuable talent in the offseason.


I liked Morrow and Aminu had some strengths. I think they both had their moments. I know guys don't like Roberts, but he had some guts and played hard. I still hate that Smith left. I don't know why they kept Ajinca or Withey over him.
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