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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:20 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:20 am to rds dc
quote:
It's odd, the Canadian has shown improvement with the mid-lat 500 mb since the upgrade but still blows in the tropics.
CMC will always be crazy... I was more interested in the NAVGEM upgrade. I do have to say, this is more exciting to track cause there's just so much uncertainty.
ETA: Ready to see the Euro ensembles... see if the GOM solution is still there.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 12:22 am
1
Posted on 8/22/14 at 12:27 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
cause there's just so much uncertainty.
Yeah, until there is a defined LLC there will be a lot of options on the table. There are multiple vorts circulating around a broad "center" of circulation. It looked like there was one SE of Puerto Rico this evening, if that became the dominate circulation (not saying it will) then that would blow up pretty much all the models.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 1:23 am to rds dc
Euro is 200 miles west of the 12z run. still a fish
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:48 am to GEAUXmedic
Is it good that this storm in the Gulf is slow to form, or does that mean it'll hit hard once it forms in the nursery that is thr Gulf...rather than keep stalling more near the Atlantic?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:50 am to Pectus
quote:
Is it good that this storm in the Gulf is slow to form, or does that mean it'll hit hard once it forms in the nursery that is thr Gulf...rather than keep stalling more near the Atlantic?
well, it's not in the gulf. And TBH I'm not even going to pretend to know whats going to happen with this thing until it organizes and/or recon finds a valid center.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 7:54 am to Pectus
We still talking about a thunderstorm? Wake me up when it becomes a depression.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 8:01 am to GEAUXmedic
Just an observation on some radars I've seen... but are we looking at 2 storms in that large area of disturbance. One which will break towards the east coast and the other which appears to be just below Puerto Rico which will head towards the gulf?
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 9:46 am
Posted on 8/22/14 at 8:02 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I'm not even going to pretend to know whats going to happen with this thing
Yeah, I'm sure there is some heated debates at NHC over this one. It is a tricky forecast for sure and it looks like it could be a close call either way.
Look at the 500 mb setup from the 06z GFS above. That circle highlights the split in the flow and the system could go either way as it approaches that. If vorticity consolidates on the northern end of 96L over the next 36 hrs or if it goes on a strengthening cycle then it probably takes the hard right turn. On the other hand, if vorticity consolidates farther south then continuing west looks like the option. However, even slight changes in the 500 mb pattern could result in that window shifting north or south and that could also make a huge difference.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:20 am to rds dc
A few things from the 12z CIMSS analysis:
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:22 am to rds dc
wow, looks like the low pressure vorticity is moving a little south looking for those low wind shears...
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:44 am to rds dc
I had no idea the models began to shite westward again. Can you post them please? I know we're not supposed to pay so much attention to the models but for now it's pretty much all we have to go on.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:50 am to rds dc
Wouldn't you think that it's less likely that it consolidates to the south, since that's closer to land?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:54 am to LSUJuice
So yesterday I wake up and we are in good shape, this thing is just going to go north.
Now we have no clue and it still might frick our world up.
I hate weather.
Now we have no clue and it still might frick our world up.
I hate weather.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:56 am to Fun Bunch
Well, I think all of the informed posters said it was way too soon to make any good guesses at this point.
We dumb for not listening.
We dumb for not listening.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:58 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
So yesterday I wake up and we are in good shape, this thing is just going to go north.
Now we have no clue and it still might frick our world up.
I hate weather.
FWIW, yesterday we had no clue either.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:02 am to MountainTiger
I went to bed last night and Rob said it was heading out into the middle of the Atlantic. He said if by some slim chance it doesn't the high pressure system over us will push it well South. It wasn't a threat to messing up the LSU game last night. If rob says it, it has to be true right? RIGHT? RIGHT¡!!!!!!!!
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:13 am to Zephyrius
quote:
we looking at 2 storms
fricking Sharknado 2, I knew this was going to happen.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:19 am to TDsngumbo
I like to listen to the experts that are paid to do this kind of stuff....
Current Position: 18.4N, 65.7W
Geographical Reference: 25 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Movement: West-northwest at 24 mph
Organization Trend: Steady
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 70 percent
Chance of Development Within 7 Days: 85 percent
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 125 miles
Storm Location on Map
Current Position: 18.4N, 65.7W
Geographical Reference: 25 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Movement: West-northwest at 24 mph
Organization Trend: Steady
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 70 percent
Chance of Development Within 7 Days: 85 percent
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 125 miles
Storm Location on Map
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:22 am to tgrbaitn08
I don't see how a tropical system can organize moving at 25 mph.
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