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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/22/14 at 4:47 pm to MountainTiger
Posted on 8/22/14 at 4:47 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
When they all produce the same results
Which would be...
1
Posted on 8/22/14 at 4:49 pm to Navajo61490
quote:
Which would be...
When all the predicted paths are close together instead of all over the place like they are now. And also when they stay that way for a few consecutive runs.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:07 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
Actually it was XTRP, which I think is a straight line extrapolation of its current path. Hardly a "model" of any sort. Currently it's pointing at S. Tejas but this morning it was aimed at NOLA. Crazy Uncle has it making landfall south of Tallahassee.
Updated:
Also GFS is now west as well..
ETA: NAVGEM west too
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:38 pm to GEAUXmedic
But do I read that right that the GFS has it at 1008mb which is pretty much nothing?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:40 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
But do I read that right that the GFS has it at 1008mb which is pretty much nothing?
Yep, GFS has a history of underplaying strength.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:50 pm to GEAUXmedic
That sandbagging son of a bitch...
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
Gulf back in play 
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:52 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
That sandbagging son of a bitch...
Meh, trackwise it's usually accurate, i'm not sure if how weak it is affected the track or vice versa, but the fact that these models are moving back west shows the uncertainty.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
A few days ago I could see how this could get to the GOM. Kinda wrote it off after all the models shifted east. No telling where it ends up.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:57 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
A few days ago I could see how this could get to the GOM. Kinda wrote it off after all the models shifted east. No telling where it ends up.
Agreed.. but tonights EURO may be telling.. see if the ensembles still show part of it moving north and the rest of the energy tracking west in to GOM (or if it moves west with the rest of the models). Whatever gets into the GOM thats relatively organized will explode with the potential in the gulf.. it's like a powder keg.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:57 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
We don't include XTRP on our graphics
It's the purple one going in a straight line WNW, in the GulfCoastWX map you posted. They may call it something different. Stormpulse calls it XTRP.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 6:00 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 5:59 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
It's the purple one on the pic you posted. They may call it something different. Stormpulse calls it XTRP.
negative, it was an old CMC run. I know, my co-admin made the fricking graphic. Thats why he reposted it with the old models thrown out just featuring the new ones, which I posted above.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:01 pm to GEAUXmedic
Fine, stormpulse has one in the exact same position and they call it XTRP.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:02 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Agreed.. but tonights EURO may be telling.. see if the ensembles still show part of it moving north and the rest of the energy tracking west in to GOM (or if it moves west with the rest of the models). Whatever gets into the GOM thats relatively organized will explode with the potential in the gulf.. it's like a powder keg.
So are we talking the whole Gulf still at risk, or just around FL?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:03 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
Fine, stormpulse has one in the exact same position and they call it XTRP.
I hear ya.. didn't mean to argue so hard.. but if you look at it there are two gray lines both labeled "CMC" one goes through Tallahassee and the other goes through New Orleans cause he didn't remove the old model runs from it before publishing.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:04 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Agreed.. but tonights EURO may be telling.. see if the ensembles still show part of it moving north and the rest of the energy tracking west in to GOM (or if it moves west with the rest of the models). Whatever gets into the GOM thats relatively organized will explode with the potential in the gulf.. it's like a powder keg.
This system needs to slow down if it's going to intensify. Maybe models have shifted west due to system staying unorganized for so long. Whatever happens looks like it has potential to be a large storm.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:06 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
So are we talking the whole Gulf still at risk, or just around FL?
Everyone should pay attention. as soon as we think it's going to go one way, shite like this happens. It's not organized yet, the models don't have a consistent consensus on it, there's uncertainty on where it will organize a center exactly, also uncertainty on if it will split or not.. This storm is just way too tricky. Say it does go to Florida.. depending on how fast it could get trapped under the ridge and traverse FL into the GOM, it could ride the coast through the carolinas, it could go fish.. it could end up going south of florida and turning straight into tallahassee, it could ride the GOM into texas.. we just don't know
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:08 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I hear ya.. didn't mean to argue so hard.. but if you look at it there are two gray lines both labeled "CMC" one goes through Tallahassee and the other goes through New Orleans cause he didn't remove the old model runs from it before publishing.
And that same model track that ran through NOLA this morning was also labelled XTRP on stormpulse. I'm no expert here so I'm not trying to argue with you but it seems odd that any real model would predict a straight line track - even CMC. Hence my supposition that it was just an extrapolation of the current motion of the center of the storm (where ever THAT is, lol).
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 6:09 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:08 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Whatever gets into the GOM thats relatively organized will explode with the potential in the gulf.. it's like a powder keg.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 6:14 pm to NorthEndZone
You usually look for SST's over 27° C, as you can see above, they are well above that.
This is the TCHP map, you look for values over 90, and of course the higher the value, the higher the energy the storm can get. (keep in mind the two maps are as of 2 days ago and if a strong system were to come into the GOM it would affect these maps)
This map shows how deep that warm water is:
This is the TCHP map, you look for values over 90, and of course the higher the value, the higher the energy the storm can get. (keep in mind the two maps are as of 2 days ago and if a strong system were to come into the GOM it would affect these maps)
This map shows how deep that warm water is:
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 6:16 pm
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