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Posted on 5/29/14 at 11:12 am to dukke v
Im calling it now before Peej does.....
Landfall June 8th, somewhere between Jacksonville Fl and Brownsville Tx.....BOOK IT PUNK!!!
Landfall June 8th, somewhere between Jacksonville Fl and Brownsville Tx.....BOOK IT PUNK!!!
Posted on 5/29/14 at 2:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 5/29/14 at 4:11 pm to jmarto1
quote:
Aren't we looking at getting a system next week?
Post I made yesterday in this thread.
quote:
The GFS just won't give up on spinning up a system and then eventually bringing it into the Gulf. The Euro still isn't really showing anything but it did make some significant changes at 12z, esp. in the upper levels. Both models produce a large area of unsettled weather stretching from the Yucatan back over into the Pacific. Red circle shows this area on the 18z GFS.
Anything that spins up will most likely be slow to develop, sheared out, and weak. Where have we seen that beforeIt is really hard to bet on any of the possible solutions at this time given how the models continue to struggle with the 500mb pattern evolution across the mid-latitudes and the upper level pattern, esp. over the Gulf.
My thoughts haven't changed much after looking at the 12z data from today. It is still too early to say if and where something might spin up. However, I would lean a little more towards something in the Bay of Campeche than yesterday.
The GEFS from 12z today is still indicating that there will be a broad area of unsettled weather in the red circle. That will be the area to watch as the models start to get a better handle on things.
Posted on 5/29/14 at 4:15 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 5/29/14 at 4:19 pm to TigerHam85
quote:
Love a good hurricane.
Posted on 5/29/14 at 4:20 pm to LSUEnvy
quote:
I think Rummy posted this site last year, it has alot of info as well.
yeah that is the GOAT site when it comes to maps n shite
Posted on 5/29/14 at 4:20 pm to Fishwater
wasn't 2013 supposed to be a bad hurricane season?
Posted on 5/30/14 at 9:54 am to rds dc
The signal is getting a bit stronger now. D5 Image from last nights Euro run:
It looks like we will see something spin up in the Pacific 1st and then something in the Gulf. It is always tricky when two systems are trying to form in such close proximity. Things to watch over the next week or so will be:
- any convective blowups associated with the remnants of Amanda - could hinder development of Pacific system
- if a Pacific system forms, how strong does it get? This will play a role in the development of a Gulf system.
- if system forms in Gulf, it will probably be lopsided with enhanced convection over the warmer SSTs
It looks like we will see something spin up in the Pacific 1st and then something in the Gulf. It is always tricky when two systems are trying to form in such close proximity. Things to watch over the next week or so will be:
- any convective blowups associated with the remnants of Amanda - could hinder development of Pacific system
- if a Pacific system forms, how strong does it get? This will play a role in the development of a Gulf system.
- if system forms in Gulf, it will probably be lopsided with enhanced convection over the warmer SSTs
Posted on 5/30/14 at 11:19 am to rds dc
06z GFs - next week
Posted on 5/30/14 at 11:20 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GEAUXmedic
Are they still predicting it to become anything more than a weak storm? Are confidence levels increasing?
Posted on 5/30/14 at 11:23 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Are they still predicting it to become anything more than a weak storm? Are confidence levels increasing?
Not much.
Posted on 5/30/14 at 11:25 am to GEAUXmedic
so when is it supposed to start raining in Destin?
Posted on 5/30/14 at 11:28 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Could someone along the Gulf Coast be dealing with our first Tropical system of the 2014 Hurricane Season as early as next week, June? The first official day of the season is June 1st. Back on May 15th we mentioned long range models showing possible development this coming week. The model has been persistent in showing this development & other models have since joined in on the idea.
Wind shear is evident in the Gulf of Mexico currently, Tropical systems don't like shear, it ...helps break the system apart. If something does decide to take form next week it shouldn't be much of a system, as the likely hood of it being sheared apart is high.
However, the system would provide a route for deep tropical moisture to be pulled up from the Caribbean into the Gulf Coast region. How far west? That's unknown at this time. Just keep note that this system has the possibility of increasing our rain chances next week as it approaches. The heaviest rain chances would be on the eastern side of the circulation as shear would blow the storms that way, We just need to monitor how far west it makes itself.
THIS IS NOT A DEVELOPED system. DO NOT cancel any plans you may have to visit the Gulf Coast at this time. This system may OR may not come to be. We are in the EARLY stages of monitoring the POSSIBILITY. We also stress WE DO NOT know any potential impacts OR where this system may end up.
Posted on 5/30/14 at 11:36 am to longhorn22
I have a western Caribbean cruise leaving from Ft. Lauderdale on the 7th. I'll be PISSED if it gets fricked up by weather.
Posted on 5/30/14 at 9:26 pm to TigerFanatic99
Well shitty conditions in the gulf aside the models are converging and have been picking up on this for a substantial amount of time now. We might have our first storm of the season. I'm still skeptical but it deserves watching.
Posted on 5/31/14 at 12:23 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
We might have our first storm of the season. I'm still skeptical but it deserves watching.
It's not surprising that the models are thrashing around on this one. They just don't have the convective scale resolution needed to model this kind of setup, or any kind of genesis actually. The key to focus on here is that there will be a broad area of disturbed weather that could result in a Gulf system.
93E will likely spin up in to a storm and how strong it gets will play a role in what or if anything forms in the Gulf. The geography in that area is conducive to transferring vorticity from the Pacific to the Gulf but there is a very small window for it. Lots of time for people to mash their teeth over model runs on this one
Posted on 5/31/14 at 12:27 am to rds dc
quote:
Lots of time for people to mash their teeth over model runs on this one
Haha we have to have some practice for the season.. it's been a few months now.
Posted on 5/31/14 at 12:53 am to GEAUXmedic
Is my Turks & Caicos trip next week safe yet?
Posted on 5/31/14 at 12:55 am to GEAUXmedic
When td gets a weather board it should be named the geauxmedic board.
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