re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread

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I think that's my second time of being called rag today

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meh, wear it with pride.. if it is rag though..

frick you .. and welcome back

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MessagePosted by LSUGrrrlIs my Turks & Caicos trip next week safe yet?

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All plans should be cancelled for the next 6 months.

How are we to 4 pages over what looks to be an afternoon thunderstorm? This amateur weaterman stuff has gotten out of hand.

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When td gets a weather board it should be named the geauxmedic board.

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Says the dude who joined one week ago! fricking Rag!

Probably the biggest change with the 00z models is that they are more aggressive with building the ridge out of the SW and that traps the potential system down in the BoC.

999 millibar low = 50 mph TS . If verified.

I don't see a season long thread working, especially when we have storms, but okay...

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I don't see a season long thread working, especially when we have storms, but okay...


Nah, it was an idea from another thread, i figured you'd whack it if you thought it wouldn't work... which it probably won't.

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It can work, it does all over the net. Just keep static about every wave/disturbance/single model run showing a storm in here. Then break out threads for TD/storms, if they seem to pose a threat. This current "threat" would have multiple random threads started daily as people stumbled across some internet hype and posted it.

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I guess, but with all of the threads that we have on here, why have one sit for nearly 5 months with a shite-ton of useless information in it, when we could just start one for each new event and have the info be specific and relevant to that event?

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Ahhh, I'm pretty sure we are talking about the same thing. This thread is just a place for useless information. If there is a legit threat then someone can start a thread on it, like the 20% in todays TWO doesn't deserve a thread, IMHO, but would if it got to a TD.

Anyway, some useless info from the 00z models. The Euro solution of a persistent area of unsettled weather or possibly TD/weak storm in the BoC seems like the most likely solution at this time. The GFS & Euro handle the upper levels pretty differently and that results in some significant differences across the Gulf.

The 00z GEFS doesn't seem to lend much support to the operational. The red circle shows a cluster of weaker low centers and the yellow circle contains a few stronger low centers. You can see how that skews the mean MSL giving the appearance of a significant area of lower pressure in the Gulf vs. the higher pressure in the BoC. If you pull the 200 mb maps they favor an area of higher -VP in the green circle and that could point to more vigorous convection on the east side of the few stronger low centers allowing them to strengthen.

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We have anything developing in the Gulf this week, folks?

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Possibly maybe However, if anything forms it will get trapped down in the BoC under the ridge circled in blue.



That area will probably stay unsettled for awhile and eventually a series of disturbances will break down the ridge. That could allow something to sneak out towards S. Florida.