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Started By
Message
re: Payton's Inexcusable Timeout Management
Posted on 11/18/13 at 9:50 pm to TheSexecutioner
Posted on 11/18/13 at 9:50 pm to TheSexecutioner
Can you give me your football credentials please?
If you can show me where you're qualified to argue against a superbowl winning head coach than I will listen.
If not, please kindly shut the frick up.
I will wait for your credentials. ..................????
Also, that "one" second you keep bitching about could be the difference in winning and losing. So again, stfu
SP has never had clock management issues and is one of the best the game has ever seen as far as 2 minute offense
Again STFU!!!
If you can show me where you're qualified to argue against a superbowl winning head coach than I will listen.
If not, please kindly shut the frick up.
I will wait for your credentials. ..................????
Also, that "one" second you keep bitching about could be the difference in winning and losing. So again, stfu
SP has never had clock management issues and is one of the best the game has ever seen as far as 2 minute offense
Again STFU!!!
This post was edited on 11/18/13 at 9:54 pm
0
Posted on 11/18/13 at 9:52 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:you are a fricking retard. That is all
Then he inexplicably calls a timeout at 2:01 and some people are praising him for this?
Posted on 11/18/13 at 9:53 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
If anybody wants to contend that, I'll discuss it. The rest of you can just trust Trent Dilfer.
Trent Dilfer - Superbowl winner - liked the call
Sean Payton - Superbowl winner - made the call
TheSexecutioner - doesnt understand that call and is a guy on a message board who hasnt had one person agree with him yet.
Yeah you're probably right on this one
This post was edited on 11/18/13 at 9:54 pm
Posted on 11/18/13 at 10:11 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Look, I've explained what you need to know to anybody who cares to look at it with a logical mind.
There is no mathematical justification to ever call a timeout at 2:01. The most it can save is 1 second. I don't know how people can't understand this, but the fact remains that some can not.
For those of you who understand this, you should then realize that there is no application of game theory that allows Sean Payton to pressure Harbaugh into making a sub-optimal playcall by calling that timeout. He is giving him more options, not restricting any. Somehow people can't understand this either.
The best you can argue is that he is baiting Harbaugh into making an irrational play-calling decision. That is a stretch because it relies on assumptions that it is better to run the ball but Harbaugh will be too stupid to know that. If anybody wants to contend that, I'll discuss it. The rest of you can just trust Trent Dilfer.
All of it relies on assumption. SP assuming the D would stop the 49ers, and assuming the Saints would get the ball back. Then they called plays on offense designed to get in field goal range with as little time remaining as possible.
We can't help it if you are only able to think in black and white concrete terms.
Are you an Engineer by chance?
Posted on 11/18/13 at 10:46 pm to s_i5
quote:This is exactly the point. When Kaep got sacked, clock stops 2:01 and SP makes a decision. Let them go into the 2 minute warning on 2nd down or trust my D and stop the clock now. 1 second is 1 second and onus on SF to make a run/pass call with the two minute warning right after.
All of it relies on assumption. SP assuming the D would stop the 49ers, and assuming the Saints would get the ball back.
SP trusted his D, played aggressive and saved more than 1 second in game time in the process.
This post was edited on 11/18/13 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:17 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:How does it give him more options? At that point in a tie game, you have two options: run the clock (force a timeout), or try to get the first and ultimately score. Payton took option #1 off the table by calling a timeout at 2:01. The only logical decision on 2nd and 19 was to try to gain enough yards to make 3rd down manageable. 90% of the time, that means pass. Why is third and long such a dire situation? It's not only because it's hard to gain 8 or 10 yards on any given play... it's because it's hard to gain 8 or 10 yards when the defense knows you are going to pass. Same principle here.
you should then realize that there is no application of game theory that allows Sean Payton to pressure Harbaugh into making a sub-optimal playcall by calling that timeout. He is giving him more options, not restricting any.
quote:Well, Harbough had already shown how rational he is by wasting his challenges on the color of the turf. Football is as much a mind game as it is a physical one. However, I think Harbaugh made the right call on 2nd down given the situation. With no chance of forcing a timeout by running, you almost have to take the chance of trying to get the first down through the air.
The best you can argue is that he is baiting Harbaugh into making an irrational play-calling decision. That is a stretch because it relies on assumptions that it is better to run the ball but Harbaugh will be too stupid to know that. If anybody wants to contend that, I'll discuss it.
What it boils down to is, as a defense with 2 timeouts and the two minute warning trying to get the ball back, you have to plan on burning both timeouts and using the 2 min warning to stop the clock on the first 3 downs. What difference does the order in which they are used make? The first obvious difference is saving 1 second is saving 1 second, regardless of how inconsequential you think that is. The other difference is the 49ers ran the play that they wanted to run on 1st down, expecting to hit the 2 min warning after it. They could have run the ball with no consequences as far as time, but Harbaugh called pass. He went aggressive, he showed his hand. So, not only did it backfire with the sack, but Payton forced him to make another call expecting to run into the 2 minute warning, only this time a pass is even more likely.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:45 am to Korkstand
quote:
Korkstand
/Thread
Posted on 11/19/13 at 7:54 am to TheSexecutioner
Posted on 11/19/13 at 8:27 am to tigerd60
Didn't look at the thread but it deserves some Datty consideration seeing that the OP at least kept the fail up for 10 pages.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:39 am to Korkstand
quote:
How does it give him more options? At that point in a tie game, you have two options: run the clock (force a timeout), or try to get the first and ultimately score.
I've explained it to you. Nothing more to explain. The few smart posters get it.
ETA: To be fair, the second half of your post is actually decently well thought out. My only issue is this
quote:
With no chance of forcing a timeout by running, you almost have to take the chance of trying to get the first down through the air.
By admitting that they "have to take a chance" of getting it through the air, you are conceding that throwing was the best thing for SF to do. Therefore, Payton should have kept the timeout to give a disincentive to SF throwing. If they still want to throw it anyway and its incomplete, we keep an extra timeout.
It really isn't that hard.
This post was edited on 11/19/13 at 11:45 am
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:29 pm to TheSexecutioner
If the timeout is not called then the 49ers don't have as big of an incentive to do a passing play. The option of playing for overtime (running the ball) is more viable.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:34 pm to Peazey
This thread is still going?
bookmarked for datties
bookmarked for datties
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:39 pm to sicboy
It's been fairly repetitive. I shouldn't have responded. This guy is pretty good at saying things in an irritating way.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:00 pm to Peazey
quote:
If the timeout is not called then the 49ers don't have as big of an incentive to do a passing play. The option of playing for overtime (running the ball) is more viable.
They would only be 1 second more likely to get the game to overtime because we now still have that timeout to stop the clock when they run. On the other hand, if they throw incomplete, we save a timeout.
Run the ball/throw in bounds = Saints saved 1 second
Throw Incomplete/go out of bounds= Saints saved a timeout
Anybody who doesn't understand how lopsided those payoffs are is a fool. Sadly, it seems this thread is full of them.
However, the fallacy the more intelligent people in this thread are falling victim to is failing to realize that Payton can not "force" Harbaugh into passing if it is not in SF's best interests. If SF passes, it is because Harbaugh thinks it gives SF the best chance of picking up the first and winning the game.
Payton gave Harbaugh more options, not less. Did it make SF more predictable? Maybe. It certainly made them more likely to pass the ball. Did it make them more likely to make a less rational play call? Absolutely not. It took away all time-based incentives and let Harbaugh make his play call based entirely on trying to get the first down.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:04 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
By admitting that they "have to take a chance" of getting it through the air, you are conceding that throwing was the best thing for SF to do. Therefore, Payton should have kept the timeout to give a disincentive to SF throwing. If they still want to throw it anyway and its incomplete, we keep an extra timeout.
Throwing was the best thing for SF to do given that running the ball would not have kept the clock running. I think it's more likely that SF runs on both second and third down if Payton had let the clock run after first down. It would have been closer to a 50/50 chance, anyway. Given the choice of probably giving the Saints the ball with 1:50 and 2 timeouts, or giving the Saints the ball with 1:50 and 0 timeouts, I think Harbaugh goes with the latter. Or, at the very least, his decision is a little less predictable. Instead, given that running loses the incentive of making the Saints burn a timeout, passing on 2nd and 19 looks much, much more attractive. If you can make a team one-dimensional in the NFL, even for just one play, you're doing it right.
Or, if you don't buy the idea that Payton thought that deeply about the situation, let's look at it from a simpler, more "raw" perspective. If SF had run on 1st down with 6 seconds before the warning, odds are the play would have ended at about 2:03, and the Saints definitely would have called a timeout there, right? Better to make them run 2 plays before the warning than 2 plays after, right? Well, Harbaugh said frick you, I'm going to call a pass with long patterns and use the entire 6 seconds. Payton says frick you right back, eat that sack and that's my 1 second, thank you very much.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:06 pm to TheSexecutioner
I'll go with Payton's gut instinct over your "logic" every day.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:09 pm to TheSexecutioner
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:20 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
TheSexecutioner
Great troll, although you can only call everyone else stupid, crazy, unintelligent, etc. to a point. Just because you stoop to name calling doesn't make the situation any more correct, and you obviously lack any sort of intelligential feasibility as acknowledged by your inability to accept the possibility of multiple outcomes out of a said probability equation. Therefore, by definition, you have now entered into an illogical fallacy that isn't based in any real number stream. The laws of math and probability don't compute with your singular view.
Might want to go to school before thinking that singular probability views are acceptable outcomes. It's a lie and a false statement by definition.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:21 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Throwing was the best thing for SF to do given that running the ball would not have kept the clock running.
I don't know how you can't understand that your argument goes under by conceding this. We allowed them to have a better option than they otherwise would have.
SF had two goals. Run the clock down/burn our timeouts and run the best play to get the first.
We achieved their first goal for them by ensuring they would be able to burn our timeout and the 2 minute warning in their first 2 plays. They were then able to focus solely on their second goal.
The mob in this thread is contending that by achieving their first goal for them, we somehow hampered their second.
This post was edited on 11/19/13 at 1:23 pm
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