OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7 - Page 5 - TigerDroppings.com

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dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
8183 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


LSU's weakness as of late is their defense. Conversely, Florida's original starting QB is out. As much as everyone wants to think that it's a good thing for the Gators, it isn't.

Coming into Tiger stadium as a back up is a tough task. Their offense is putrid.

Yes the Florida defense is good and I suspect Mett won't have some 400 yard 5 TD game, but he's still a pro prospect, potential first rounder and if all keeps up, he will be in New York for the Heisman presentation (may not win it, but he'll be there).

He has like what, one online class this semester? His focus is solely on football and he has all kinds of time to prepare himself for whatever defense walks into Tiger Stadium. Combine that with Cameron helping him to prepare (someone who has seen NFL defenses on a weekly basis), I think they'll be ready.

LSU run blocking does need to improve, I agree with you on that.

What it comes down to, is that I believe that even if the LSU offense vs UF defense is a wash...the LSU defense isn't as "bad" as the Florida offense is "bad".

I have LSU as a PK in a teaser (sorry Bobby) with aTm and I'm extremely confident that the Tigers win outright this weekend.



This post was edited on 10/7 at 9:47 am


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HoLeInOnEr05
North Carolina Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
14989 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


LSU wins this weekend, yes. But I don't think they cover.





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bobbyray21
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

LSU wins this weekend, yes. But I don't think they cover.


No worries. Just do a teaser.






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LSUJuice
LSU Fan
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
12464 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


Yeah I definitely see both sides, and I wanted to throw the other argument out there. I'm definitely staying away from it. That said, I'm in no position to strongly argue one way or the other on here. I just don't put in the time and research on these games like some of y'all have.

(I will say, to my credit, I argued against Georgia last week. I knew something was up with that. But it will probably be the only time I go against the grain and get it right, or just lucky)



This post was edited on 10/7 at 9:54 am


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bobbyray21
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

Who said anything about a one game teaser? It was meant as a good team to put in a teaser just as it implied. Get your head out your ass


Eat a dick






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bamafan425
Mississippi St. Fan
The Golf Board Superintendent
Member since Jan 2009
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re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


Don't be obtuse.





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blades8088
LSU Fan
Covington
Member since Nov 2008
1890 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

No worries. Just do a teaser.

A 1 teamer?

FYI just messing with you dude. You just totally took what i said out of context about Lsu being a good team to tease






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bobbyray21
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

Then perhaps I'm just being a negatiger
And this is probably the reason you shouldn't bet your own team, and is the reason I'm staying far far away.


I've been impressed with LSU this year. Much moreso than Florida.






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HoLeInOnEr05
North Carolina Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
14989 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

No worries. Just do a teaser.


Giving some one shite about a teaser is awfully rich coming from you. Shouldn't you be looking to lay $600 to win a $100 on some bull shite game?






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bobbyray21
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

FYI just messing with you dude. You just totally took what i said out of context about Lsu being a good team to tease


It's fine. I think this thread gets a bit teaser-happy is all.






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bobbyray21
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

Giving some one shite about a teaser is awfully rich coming from you. Shouldn't you be looking to lay $600 to win a $100 on some bull shite game?


I don't see why the games are bull shite. They pay out just as well.






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blades8088
LSU Fan
Covington
Member since Nov 2008
1890 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


It's not just that. I personally will do a single 2 or 3 team teaser a week. LSU and aTM just seems like easy money at a pick





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HoLeInOnEr05
North Carolina Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
14989 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

I don't see why the games are bull shite. They pay out just as well.




Yea, but when you lose one of those games, your going to feel it for weeks. What's wrong with putting a two team teaser together? At least you don't have to bet an absurd amount to win little.






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LSUJuice
LSU Fan
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
12464 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


Just agree to disagree on the teaser thing. Besides, I can't stand to see that math/statistics proof again.

I love this thread because it's the one place on here (and probably anywhere else for that matter) with good non-biased college football discussion that's not filled with trolling and bull shite.






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bobbyray21
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


quote:

Besides, I can't stand to see that math/statistics proof again.


I was totally thinking about posting it again.







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LSUJuice
LSU Fan
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
12464 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


It makes my head spin, and I'm an engineer.




This post was edited on 10/7 at 10:15 am


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bamafan425
Mississippi St. Fan
The Golf Board Superintendent
Member since Jan 2009
22699 posts
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re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


What's your EV analysis on reverse bets for ML favorites we've been talking about?





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LSUJuice
LSU Fan
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
12464 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


I'm curious about this too. I've done well with the ML favorite thing (-200 up to -600), but I just wonder what the numbers say about when and how often it will catch up to you over time.





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dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
8183 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


Generally stay away from teasers, but I'll grab one if I can get good numbers. I don't mind getting LSU and aTm as PK.

The LSU line won't drop, but if it does, I'd take it below a TD since they're at home.

FWIW LSU is ranked 43rd in Rushing (top 10 in Rushing TD's). Yes their run blocking has looked below average at times, but they also block well enough on certain plays to break Hill or Hilliard for huge runs.






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LSUJuice
LSU Fan
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
12464 posts

re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7


Yeah that's the strange thing about the running game - it's feast or famine. Lots of -2 to +2 yard rushes. Very few +4 to +8 yard rushes. And then several where Hill just fricking beastmodes a long TD.





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