re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

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I highly, highly doubt this. Varys hates magic and has good reason to

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Varys hates magic and has good reason to.

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But I don't think he wants Dany completely out of the picture, obviously the dragons help.

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Moreover, I think it was Varys's initial plan to have Rhaegar take power from the mad king but thanks to Lyanna and Robert it didn't work out.

Varys was loyal to the Mad King but also contributed to his paranoia, thus catalyzing support for his removal in favor of Rhaegar who reportedly was on the verge of making serious changes in King's Landing before he died.

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I think it was Varys's initial plan to have Rhaegar take power from the mad king but thanks to Lyanna and Robert it didn't work out.

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I watching the show for the first time, and I know this is kinda off topic, but I didn't know which thread it was safe to post in.

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If so, why did he tell Aerys that Rhaegar was plotting to overthrow him at the Harrenhal tourney?

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Varys used that as an excuse to get Aerys to attend the Tournament, it just so happened to also be somewhat true.

No one had seen Aerys in five years outside the Red Keep.

Aerys II looked like crazy arse motherfricker (The beard, the hair, the 12 inch long fingernails, the emaciated appearance)

If someone wanted to rally support for Rhaegar, all you would have to do is get Aerys II to make a public appearance.

Not only did Varys do this, he also got the Mad King to make his public appearance in the shadow of Rhaegar's glory at the tournament.

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ADWD 1: TYRION I

SEPTON MERIBALD'S STORY

Septon Meribald tells Brienne and Pod the story of the Crossroads Inn:

"...He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon.”
“Is the dragon sign still there?” asked Podrick.
“No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust..."

AFFC 37: BRIENNE VII

This story could be an allegory for Aegon being a Blackfyre. A black dragon is Blackfyre and a red dragon is a Targaryen. So the black dragons (Blackfyres) were forced across the Narrow Sea and many years later one of them (Aegon) rusted over and now appears to be a red dragon (Targ).

VARYS IS A BLACKFYRE

Varys being a Blackfyre is the most speculative part of the theory and need not be true for the other parts to be true. The evidence for it is entirely circumstantial, but it does explain some inconsistencies with Varys's character. Why despite claiming to be a Targaryen loyalist, he was feeding Aerys's paranoia about Rhaegar usurping the throne (according to accounts of Barristan and Jaime). Why he shaves his head, so that he can hide his Valyrian hair (although the same would be true if he were of any Valyrian descent, Blackfyre or otherwise). Also, why Varys was castrated as a boy. He tells Tyrion the following about his castration:

“One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion that made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he sliced me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke."

ACOK 44: TYRION X

We know from Melisandre's practices that sorcerers prefer to use royal blood in their rituals. If Varys was a Blackfyre he would have royal blood.

DUNK & EGG

A large portion of the Dunk & Egg novellas covers the history of the Blackfyre Rebellions. This could be hinting at a greater significance for the Blackfyres in the ASOAIF series as a whole. Of course it could also just be window dressing for the novellas and have no other significance.

AEGON BEING SAVED DOESN'T MAKE SENSE

How could Varys have known Gregor would smash baby Aegon's face beyond recognition? It's unlikely this could have been planned. [/u/jbtalley]

AGE DISCREPANCY

Aegon was born in 282AL, so by the time Tyrion meets him he should be around 18 years old. Yet here is Tyrion's description of Little Griff [/u/jbtalley]:

He was a lithe and well-made youth, with a lanky build and a shock of dark blue hair. The dwarf put his age at fifteen, sixteen, or near enough to make no matter.

ADWD 8: TYRION III

Of course it's very plausible that an 18 year old could be mistaken for 16, so I wouldn't call this strong evidence.

ADWD EARLY DRAFT

Earlier drafts of ADWD chapters have other clues. It is speculated that Martin cut a lot this material because it made Aegon's parentage too obvious.

From a 2005 reading of Tyrion II:

"Illyrio says he wants to give Young Griff his blessings and has a gift for him in the chests. Haldon tells him there is no time for the litter. Illyrio gets angry and says there are things Griff must know.
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Haldon eyes Tyrion and then begins to speak in another language. Tyrion cannot tell what it is but think it might be Volantene. He catches a few words that come close to High Valyrian. The words he catches are, queen, dragon, and sword."

It has been speculated that Illyrio was going to give Young Griff "Blackfyre," the ancestral sword of House Targaryen that was taken overseas by the Blackfyres.

From Elio, who fact-checked earlier drafts of ADWD:

"An earlier draft of the "lesson" chapter had quite a bit more detail about Maelys the Monstrous and the Blackfyres (for those who have GoO's RPG, some of that information ended up in that book). I wonder why George decided to pull it from this book."

ARGUMENTS AGAINST


NO PROOF!

One big argument against this whole theory is that all of the evidence is basically circumstantial. That is not to say circumstantial evidence is invalid (especially in a book), but just that there is no smoking gun yet.

VARYS'S TALK WITH KEVAN

This is what Varys tells a dying Kevan Lannister:

“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. “Dead. He’s dead.”
“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

ADWD 72: EPILOGUE

Varys directly answers Kevan's question about Aegon being dead and says he isn't. Why would Varys lie about Aegon to Kevan, who he was about to kill anyways? It is unlikely that if Aegon is a Blackfyre that Varys wouldn't know, because he was likely the one who smuggled baby Aegon out of King's Landing (or didn't), so he likely knows if Aegon is really Aegon. So why lie to a dying man about it? Some possible answers are:

Varys "little birds" were present when Kevan was dying, perhaps Varys meant to keep the truth about Aegon from them. [/u/ChurchHatesTucker]
Varys perhaps didn't lie. All he said is that "Aegon" isn't dead, but never said which Aegon he was referring to. [/u/jbtalley]
Varys doesn't know Aegon is a Blackfyre. Illyrio is the only one who knows and is playing him.

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Yes. And, really, if you think about it, a ton of the Starks' (and in a way everyone's) problems come from the self inflicted wounds of Ned, Cat and Robb.

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For sure, the younger Starks seem to have been toughened by the faults and subsequent tragedies of their older counterparts. Arya is pretty much an assassin. Sansa seems to be finally smartening up and has Littlefinger as a teacher. Jon (I count him as a Stark child for this discussion) has learned how to lie. How to kill both his own comrades (half-hand) and someone he loves (Ygrette), how to swap babies, etc. etc. No telling what Rickon will have learned when and if he comes back from Skagos.

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Of course, then there's Theon, the hostage/foster "son". Not sure how he fits in to the dynamic. Whatever he did sure didn't work out very good for him.

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