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re: NATIONAL TITLE HOPES - Updated page 1
Posted on 11/10/10 at 8:57 am to lsumatt
Posted on 11/10/10 at 8:57 am to lsumatt
quote:
If it were me, I would insist that the computers run their simulations as if AU games all counted and then delete Auburn.
I would guess that is what they would do, but another possibility is simply to delete all games that Auburn forfeits and calculate the computer rankings as if those games weren't played at all. That would leave LSU with 12 games (if we win out and go to the SECCG). How would that play out on the computers? Is that a possible scenario for the computers?
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Posted on 11/10/10 at 9:12 am to BrickTamland
quote:
we would be ranked higher
Probably not, unfortunately. 12-1 Auburn would likely still be #1 in the computers over LSU. The human voters would have to drop them quite a bit, and I doubt they fall below us.
quote:
they don't like to take a team that lost its championship game if they don't have to
Agreed. Key word is "have to". If 12-1 Auburn stays ahead of us and in the Top 4, which I think they will, they are an automatic qualifier and #5 11-1 LSU would be stuck in the Cotton Bowl.
Posted on 11/10/10 at 1:48 pm to CajunFootball
quote:I personally like the idea of beating the Ducks two games in a row.
I'd rather play in the Sugar Bowl this year. I'd hate to play Oregon and risk losing,
Posted on 11/10/10 at 1:49 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
I'd rather play in the Sugar Bowl this year. I'd hate to play Oregon and risk losing, plus with the Sugar I can go out afterwards.
I'd rather actually have a shot at the national title than play in the sugar bowl.
Posted on 11/10/10 at 1:56 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
I'd rather play in the Sugar Bowl this year. I'd hate to play Oregon and risk losing, plus with the Sugar I can go out afterwards.
Posted on 11/10/10 at 2:13 pm to lsumatt
Remember also that if Auburn beats UGA and Bama but then loses in the SECCG, assuming we win out, we would be in the top 4 of the BCS rankings and automatically qualify for a BCS bowl game.
Posted on 11/10/10 at 2:15 pm to marathoner
quote:
Remember also that if Auburn beats UGA and Bama but then loses in the SECCG, assuming we win out, we would be in the top 4 of the BCS rankings and automatically qualify for a BCS bowl game.
Ignoring the Cam Newton effect...no we wouldn't.
Auburn at 12-1 with a win over 11-1 LSU would likely finish above LSU in the human polls and BCS. That keeps AU in the top #4 and knocks LSU out altogether. Even if LSU is #4 and AU is #3, LSU is going to the Cap One or Cotton
Posted on 11/10/10 at 2:45 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Auburn at 12-1 with a win over 11-1 LSU would likely finish above LSU in the human polls and BCS. That keeps AU in the top #4 and knocks LSU out altogether. Even if LSU is #4 and AU is #3, LSU is going to the Cap One or Cotton
Matt, you are the man when deciphering the BCS, but If AU is #2 in the human polls and LSU is #6, #2 losing to #22 SC or #24 Fla in the SECCG wouldnt drop them more than 4 spots? Seems like they would drop to 8 or 9 at least.
Posted on 11/10/10 at 2:52 pm to SwampdogDC
quote:
but If AU is #2 in the human polls and LSU is #6, #2 losing to #22 SC or #24 Fla in the SECCG wouldnt drop them more than 4 spots? Seems like they would drop to 8 or 9 at least.
That is a rational argument in the middle of the season - teams drop to the end of the line when they lose. But at the end of the season, all rules are off (and this is sort of a new development the last 5 years or so).
Voters will look at their ballot to see what makes sense and what is "fair" in their minds. When they go to write LSU and AU and they both have the same number of losses, but AU beat LSU and won the SECW - logically they keep AU>LSU.
Now the Cam Newton stuff is different. Maybe they just say "screw you AU"...but I don't know.
Posted on 11/10/10 at 4:46 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Voters will look at their ballot to see what makes sense and what is "fair" in their minds. When they go to write LSU and AU and they both have the same number of losses, but AU beat LSU and won the SECW - logically they keep AU>LSU.
This.
In all of the threads about LSU-Auburn rematch (which would require TCU losing, and I would say the odds of them losing are about 999:1), people often say that "the media will not allow a rematch."
The media has 2/3 of the power in the BCS, but the problem is they suck at differentiating teams with identical records. 4 undefeated teams right now, one of them out of the SEC, and Oregon gets the most #1s while TCU and Boise get others - that should be enough proof to show how shitty the media is at that part of their job. Now, imagine if Auburn is 13-0, and there are no other undefeated teams in the BCS. For the voters to specifically keep LSU out would require a good chunk of them organizing who they are going to put 2nd, 3rd, and probably 4th on their ballots. If they all decide they will put Nebraska at #2, but do not discuss anything past that, then they leave the door open for LSU to sneak in on the strength of the computers. This idea that the media would make an organized effort to keep anyone "out" of the NC is insane. It has not happened in the BCS era.
Posted on 11/10/10 at 6:06 pm to Akit1
quote:
The nation better hope UGA loses to Auburn, otherwise chaos is going to erupt.
I like what Lee Feinswog said on 104.5 with Matt Moscona yesterday.
"If Georgia beats Auburn, LSU will win the national championship."
If Georgia beats Auburn, Auburn beats Alabama and then loses the SEC title game and LSU so much as sniffs a BCS title game appearance without winning their division or conference, there will be riots in Athens after we heard "you can't play for the BCS title if you don't even win your division or conference" 5,673,885,246 times in one month following the 2007 regular season (with, I might add, the loudest of those outcries coming from the Baton Rouge vicinity).
Posted on 11/10/10 at 7:59 pm to Dawg151
Totally different scenario. Georgia hadn't won its conference and was competing with LSU (who had one more win, same losses, and won the same conference UGA didn't).
Here, we're talking about Auburn facing LSU. The "didn't win the conference" argument doesn't apply because the champion already got a spot. If, say, TCU/Boise/a bunch of teams lose and it's #1 12-0 UO and then 12-1 AU and 11-1 LSU, AU goes.
Here, we're talking about Auburn facing LSU. The "didn't win the conference" argument doesn't apply because the champion already got a spot. If, say, TCU/Boise/a bunch of teams lose and it's #1 12-0 UO and then 12-1 AU and 11-1 LSU, AU goes.
Posted on 11/11/10 at 12:00 am to lsumatt
I'm not an LSU or an SEC fan, so this is an outsider's point of view.
I think it would be great to see LSU play in the NC game. Coming into the season all the talk I heard about the SEC was Bama, Florida, Arkansas, and Auburn. It seemed to me that LSU was an after thought.
How cool would it be for that "after thought" to bypass all the other SEC teams and play in the NC game? I'd pull for LSU...unless they played Oregon.
Plus, I like your coach. He eats grass.
I think it would be great to see LSU play in the NC game. Coming into the season all the talk I heard about the SEC was Bama, Florida, Arkansas, and Auburn. It seemed to me that LSU was an after thought.
How cool would it be for that "after thought" to bypass all the other SEC teams and play in the NC game? I'd pull for LSU...unless they played Oregon.
Plus, I like your coach. He eats grass.
Posted on 11/11/10 at 4:39 am to Ted2010
Hey, if it happens, it happens. I hope it does.
I thought that Miles needed to get to a BCS bowl this year to erase some of the questions.
He's beaten Meyer on the road and Saban, and so erased a lot of them.
But if we get to the Sugar or the Orange in a year we had no quarterback, I will be thrilled with this season.
I thought that Miles needed to get to a BCS bowl this year to erase some of the questions.
He's beaten Meyer on the road and Saban, and so erased a lot of them.
But if we get to the Sugar or the Orange in a year we had no quarterback, I will be thrilled with this season.
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