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re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:40 pm to TheSexecutioner
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:40 pm to TheSexecutioner
Wrong again
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:44 pm to Madking
if you are afraid to go for 2 despite the obvious mathematical advantage it provides, you shouldn't be an NFL head coach to begin with.
fear-based decision making is flawed.
your goal is to give your team the BEST chance to succeed. yes, going for 2 will give you a 38% chance of losing, but kicking the XP gives you a 51.3% chance of losing, even if it is the "safe" move
fear-based decision making is flawed.
your goal is to give your team the BEST chance to succeed. yes, going for 2 will give you a 38% chance of losing, but kicking the XP gives you a 51.3% chance of losing, even if it is the "safe" move
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:46 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:and then take it to ot?
If you miss the first one, you have a chance to get the second one.
Might as well kick two xps if you want to play for ot.
If you’re really adamant on playing to win/lose in regulation put all the chips on the second attempt.
Two low probability attempts vs one low probability attempt.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:47 pm to Corinthians420
Vegas uses math to set lines.
Coaches and scouts use math to evaluate player’s statistics and measurables.
Coach uses math to make a decision in the game: OMG WHAT A RETARD
Coaches and scouts use math to evaluate player’s statistics and measurables.
Coach uses math to make a decision in the game: OMG WHAT A RETARD
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:47 pm to Corinthians420
How ironic since what you’re advocating for is a gamble based on fear. Good coaches who believe they have good teams welcome extended time because the more plays that take place the better your chances are if you’re the better team.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:48 pm to Gordon Hayward
Vegas lines aren’t predictions doofus. They’re bait to attract action and the fact that you don’t know the difference proves you’re just a sucker.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:50 pm to theCAW
quote:
Two low probability attempts vs one low probability attempt.
it isn't a "low probability attempt"
In 2023, teams were successful on 2-point conversions 70 out of 127 times (55%). You only need to convert 40% of the time for going for 2 for it to give you a better % chance of winning than kicking an XP.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:50 pm to Madking
The line was 6.5 at kickoff. If they get the 2, they cover. They didn’t convert so it went the other way. I’d say Vegas is pretty good at what they do.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:52 pm to CalLSU
Here's the thing. All the anti-analytics/math people bring it up when it fails, but don't talk about it when it succeeds like the Titans/Dolphins game earlier this year. The math behind it absolutely makes sense.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:54 pm to Dawgsontop34
They rely on any and all anecdotal evidence to support their claims while ignoring the fact if they compile all anecdotal evidence, it leans opposite of their narrative. If you trust the math, you’ll be right more times than not. Again, this is beyond just football.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:54 pm to Madking
quote:
Good coaches who believe they have good teams welcome extended time because the more plays that take place the better your chances are if you’re the better team.
this is just false. Good coaches go for 2. We've seen Belichick, Shanahan, McDaniels all do it in this situation.
Saban went for 2 up 8 against Ole Miss rather than making it a 2 possession game by kicking the XP.
is Saban not a good coach? here's what he had to say
quote:
"Well some people think it's unusual. Some people don't," said Saban on the SEC Coaches Teleconference on Wednesday. "We always make a decision before the game starts at what point in the game would we go for two. Middle to late in the third quarter and fourth quarter was kind of what our philosophy was going into that game, so that's exactly what we did.
he makes the decision before the game so that he doesnt have to make an EMOTIONAL decision. it is strictly math-based.
is Saban not a good coach?
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:56 pm to Corinthians420
He forgot the fact that the Lions won 3 more games than the Buccaneers this season, including a head to head win, and were playing at home. Why the frick would he assume his team would have a higher likelihood of winning with extended time?
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:59 pm to Corinthians420
You continue to make things up. No your chances of winning a football game down 13 points in the 4th is not 62% if you go for 2. That’s false and I never said good coaches never go for 2.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:59 pm to Corinthians420
I get “ad hominem” even though that’s the only logical fallacy ever brought up in arguments(I wonder why), but I would love to pull madking’s credentials right now.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:00 pm to VADawg
quote:
The other problem is the analytics don't account for human nature. I'm sure Detroit's players felt a whole lot more comfortable with a 31-23 lead than they would have at 31-24.
Couldn't you make the same argument that Detroit would feel less comfortable if Tampa would have gotten the 2 point conversion and Detroit was only up 6?
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:01 pm to Madking
quote:
No your chances of winning a football game down 13 points in the 4th is not 62% if you go for 2
no shite dumbass, because the decision doesn't matter if you dont score 2 touchdowns. the 62% vs 48% only matters if you score 2 touchdowns and get a stop, so those are the only situations we are concerned with.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:04 pm to Corinthians420
Before the prevalence of analytics in the league, coaches would routinely punt from the other team’s 40 yard line in 4th and <5 to go situations. That’s the side they’re taking right now. Unbelievable.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:04 pm to Corinthians420
Thanks for proving your entire argument is nonsense.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:04 pm to theCAW
quote:
and then take it to ot?
Might as well kick two xps if you want to play for ot.
If you’re really adamant on playing to win/lose in regulation put all the chips on the second attempt.
Two low probability attempts vs one low probability attempt.
Yes, the 50% of the time that your first 2 point conversion didn't work, you still get a chance to take it to OT. The 50% of the time that the first 2pt did work, you can take the PAT and not even have to play OT.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:05 pm to Gordon Hayward
lol you think percentages were invented 5-10 years ago. Ignorant nerd fan delusion.
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