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re: Going for 2 in that situation.

Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:40 pm to
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
52734 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:40 pm to
Wrong again
Posted by Corinthians420
Iowa
Member since Jun 2022
9353 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:44 pm to
if you are afraid to go for 2 despite the obvious mathematical advantage it provides, you shouldn't be an NFL head coach to begin with.

fear-based decision making is flawed.

your goal is to give your team the BEST chance to succeed. yes, going for 2 will give you a 38% chance of losing, but kicking the XP gives you a 51.3% chance of losing, even if it is the "safe" move
Posted by theCAW
Polk County
Member since Dec 2023
3430 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

If you miss the first one, you have a chance to get the second one.
and then take it to ot?

Might as well kick two xps if you want to play for ot.

If you’re really adamant on playing to win/lose in regulation put all the chips on the second attempt.

Two low probability attempts vs one low probability attempt.
Posted by Gordon Hayward
Member since Jun 2016
1092 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:47 pm to
Vegas uses math to set lines.

Coaches and scouts use math to evaluate player’s statistics and measurables.

Coach uses math to make a decision in the game: OMG WHAT A RETARD
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
52734 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:47 pm to
How ironic since what you’re advocating for is a gamble based on fear. Good coaches who believe they have good teams welcome extended time because the more plays that take place the better your chances are if you’re the better team.
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
52734 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:48 pm to
Vegas lines aren’t predictions doofus. They’re bait to attract action and the fact that you don’t know the difference proves you’re just a sucker.
Posted by Corinthians420
Iowa
Member since Jun 2022
9353 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

Two low probability attempts vs one low probability attempt.

it isn't a "low probability attempt"

In 2023, teams were successful on 2-point conversions 70 out of 127 times (55%). You only need to convert 40% of the time for going for 2 for it to give you a better % chance of winning than kicking an XP.

Posted by Gordon Hayward
Member since Jun 2016
1092 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:50 pm to
The line was 6.5 at kickoff. If they get the 2, they cover. They didn’t convert so it went the other way. I’d say Vegas is pretty good at what they do.
Posted by Dawgsontop34
Member since Jun 2014
43993 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:52 pm to
Here's the thing. All the anti-analytics/math people bring it up when it fails, but don't talk about it when it succeeds like the Titans/Dolphins game earlier this year. The math behind it absolutely makes sense.
Posted by Gordon Hayward
Member since Jun 2016
1092 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:54 pm to
They rely on any and all anecdotal evidence to support their claims while ignoring the fact if they compile all anecdotal evidence, it leans opposite of their narrative. If you trust the math, you’ll be right more times than not. Again, this is beyond just football.
Posted by Corinthians420
Iowa
Member since Jun 2022
9353 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

Good coaches who believe they have good teams welcome extended time because the more plays that take place the better your chances are if you’re the better team.

this is just false. Good coaches go for 2. We've seen Belichick, Shanahan, McDaniels all do it in this situation.

Saban went for 2 up 8 against Ole Miss rather than making it a 2 possession game by kicking the XP.

is Saban not a good coach? here's what he had to say
quote:

"Well some people think it's unusual. Some people don't," said Saban on the SEC Coaches Teleconference on Wednesday. "We always make a decision before the game starts at what point in the game would we go for two. Middle to late in the third quarter and fourth quarter was kind of what our philosophy was going into that game, so that's exactly what we did.

he makes the decision before the game so that he doesnt have to make an EMOTIONAL decision. it is strictly math-based.

is Saban not a good coach?
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 1:58 pm
Posted by Gordon Hayward
Member since Jun 2016
1092 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:56 pm to
He forgot the fact that the Lions won 3 more games than the Buccaneers this season, including a head to head win, and were playing at home. Why the frick would he assume his team would have a higher likelihood of winning with extended time?
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
52734 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:59 pm to
You continue to make things up. No your chances of winning a football game down 13 points in the 4th is not 62% if you go for 2. That’s false and I never said good coaches never go for 2.
Posted by Gordon Hayward
Member since Jun 2016
1092 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:59 pm to
I get “ad hominem” even though that’s the only logical fallacy ever brought up in arguments(I wonder why), but I would love to pull madking’s credentials right now.
Posted by Dawgsontop34
Member since Jun 2014
43993 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

The other problem is the analytics don't account for human nature. I'm sure Detroit's players felt a whole lot more comfortable with a 31-23 lead than they would have at 31-24.


Couldn't you make the same argument that Detroit would feel less comfortable if Tampa would have gotten the 2 point conversion and Detroit was only up 6?
Posted by Corinthians420
Iowa
Member since Jun 2022
9353 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

No your chances of winning a football game down 13 points in the 4th is not 62% if you go for 2

no shite dumbass, because the decision doesn't matter if you dont score 2 touchdowns. the 62% vs 48% only matters if you score 2 touchdowns and get a stop, so those are the only situations we are concerned with.
Posted by Gordon Hayward
Member since Jun 2016
1092 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:04 pm to
Before the prevalence of analytics in the league, coaches would routinely punt from the other team’s 40 yard line in 4th and <5 to go situations. That’s the side they’re taking right now. Unbelievable.
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
52734 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:04 pm to
Thanks for proving your entire argument is nonsense.
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5258 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

and then take it to ot?

Might as well kick two xps if you want to play for ot.

If you’re really adamant on playing to win/lose in regulation put all the chips on the second attempt.

Two low probability attempts vs one low probability attempt.


Yes, the 50% of the time that your first 2 point conversion didn't work, you still get a chance to take it to OT. The 50% of the time that the first 2pt did work, you can take the PAT and not even have to play OT.
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
52734 posts
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:05 pm to
lol you think percentages were invented 5-10 years ago. Ignorant nerd fan delusion.
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