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re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:33 am to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
141405 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:33 am to
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
9732 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:35 am to
Barksdale bubble......
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164478 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:36 am to
The party is over in Monroe. We're in the stratiform region now. It wasn't supposed to be bad here anyways.
Posted by Crimson1st
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2010
20275 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:39 am to
quote:

15 to 20% probability that there will be a tornado within 25 miles of any location in that area.


Not sure if anyone expounded on this but it is worth repeating…in a “hatched” area within the probabilistic maps(where the slanted lines are) like what you cited, it means a chance of a “stronger” type tornado of EF2 or greater as well.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
141405 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:43 am to
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35657 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:43 am to
Just got put in a nader' watch. Not all that concerned down here in NOLA.
Posted by Tigeralum2008
Yankees Fan
Member since Apr 2012
17154 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:43 am to
quote:

There was debris some 20k in the air and a vicious gate to gate on that.

Like "possible tornado" when you have a picture of a wedge throwing shite in the air.


Is this just a case of information coming fast so deal with current situation and clean things up administratively later?
Posted by IMAb4u
Member since Mar 2022
23 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:44 am to
Haven't really paid much attention, but they have a First alert weather day here. Any chance it gets rough around NE Alabama?
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164478 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Is this just a case of information coming fast so deal with current situation and clean things up administratively later?


Nah. They suck. If you watch weather events over and over again you can tell which offices are good and which ones are bad.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35657 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:45 am to
quote:

Is this just a case of information coming fast so deal with current situation and clean things up administratively later?



Probably, but that's a sure thing tornado. Enough to call it one and note the survey will get a rating. No problem with anything questionable calling winds and survey later.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
141405 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:46 am to
Nick Mikulas saying we've already gotten 2 inches of rain in Alexandria

Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41792 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:47 am to
quote:

Just got put in a nader' watch. Not all that concerned down here in NOLA.

Better not post that on stormcast. They’ll crucify you for making people complacent by not sounding every alarm and alerting the church elders.
Posted by ElOsoBlanco7
225
Member since Feb 2019
449 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:48 am to
Probs at 90/60 for tornados. I expect that would have been a little higher had we seen a separate watch north of the LA/MS state line.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37196 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:48 am to
quote:

ah. They suck. If you watch weather events over and over again you can tell which offices are good and which ones are bad.


Hows the NOLA one?
Posted by DhanTigers212
Member since Dec 2014
7975 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:48 am to
Should residents in Baton Rouge be worried about tornadoes? Or just some really nasty weather?
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
43004 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Should residents in Baton Rouge be worried about tornadoes? Or just some really nasty weather?


Yes, Baton Rouge is in the tornado watch and has a risk of tornadoes today.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
55063 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:51 am to
How we looking? I haven't been able to look at anything this morning. I do see that they snuck me into the Slight Risk.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
43004 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:51 am to
These are the Probabilities on the new Tornado Watch:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes - High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes - Mod (60%)
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
91023 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:51 am to
Cell between Anguilla and Hollandale is probably going to be nasty for me
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35657 posts
Posted on 3/22/22 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Should residents in Baton Rouge be worried about tornadoes? Or just some really nasty weather?


BR should be concerned about tornadoes but in a take warnings seriously kind of way and know what you'll do if you catch one.

The risk increases as you go north in SELA today, and maximizes in southern Mississippi.
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