re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

I don't think Mance Rayder is anyone. If he was someone in disguise, I don't think Dumb and Dumber would've killed him off on the show

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Rhaegar died on the Trident, it is known.

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Unless the rubies of the Ruby Armor were used to glamour whomever it was to appear as Rhaegar?

Why Mance = Rhaegar makes sense:

Both Mance and Rhaegar are known as accomplished musicians/singers.

Rhaegar would definitely be of King's Blood. We know for certain that Mance has outwardly appeared as others on at least 2 occasions - disguise at the King's feast at Winterfell (as a musician) and when glamoured to appear as LotB to avoid execution at the wall. (His son will be named Aemon, a classically Targaryean name).

A companion theory is that Halfhand is Ser Arthur Dayne.

Why I (and others) may not buy it:

His backstory is that he was taken as a wildling orphan and raised at Castle Black. He's more likely to be an early son of Craster, than Rhaegar, unless that story is complete bull$hit. Maester Aemon would know if Mance wasn't really taken as a child, because he's been at the wall for decades, but he wouldn't have any reason to out Rhaegar, either. Maybe there are no others old enough to refute the back story?

On the other hand, if Rhaegar was North - perhaps hiding in the gift or even beyond the wall, he could have replaced the real Mance - perhaps he found him dead from the Shadowcat attack?

But that's starting to get crazy. It is intriguing, though.

Particularly if Halfhand is Arthur Dayne. The evidence for this is much stronger. He taught himself to fight better with his left hand than his right (remember Dayne's prize pupil, Jaime Lannister?)

And, from A Clash of Kings-

Ch. 43:

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Dawn had broken when Jon stepped from the tent beside Qhorin Halfhand.

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Ch. 51:

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They could see the fire in the night, glimmering against the side of the mountain like a fallen star.

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Dawn and Qhorin Halfhand arrived together.

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Could be nothing. Could be strong clues.

Does anybody sill believe that Ned, even with little froggy, frog man, could defeat The Sword of the Morning? The only swordsman Jaime Lannister is in awe of?

Ned was awfully vague about the details of the ToJ, with good reason, IMHO - because he didn't want to lie any more than necessary. Lying well is hard enough when you work at it.

I believe 7 of the Norths greatest knights could defeat 3 Kingsguard members yes. The Rhaegar stuff is interesting, but doesn't make sense in the end game. Why would he want to abandon the prophecy that he helped create? Why would he allow his wife and children to be brutally murdered? Mance is to jovial to be Rhaegar IMO. He was already a solemn dude. I wouldn't think knowing that he ran away while his line was destroyed in terrifying fashion would make him a care free jokester.

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Why would Dayne hide out at the wall? I don't see that happening.

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Negotiated end to the Tower of Joy battle.

Arthur Dayne's best friend in life was Rhaegar Targaryen and, in all likelihood, the best swordsman in Westeros during Robert's Rebellion. If he was truly at the ToJ to protect Lyanna (not imprison her) and her unborn child, rather than guarding the king or at Rhaegar's side with the army in the field, then the weak point of all of this is the child.

They didn't know who would show up. When it was Ned and battle was joined, either Dayne or Hightower might have come up with the solution - tell Ned the truth - he is one of the most honorable men in Westeros and this is his freakin' sister and nephew upstairs.

So, if Dayne capitulated to protect Lyanna and Jon, honor would also compel him to take the black, anonymously, wouldn't you agree?

Thus, Dawn had to go back to Starfall, because that would be a dead (pardon the pun) giveaway.

Suddenly, there is a great swordsman at the wall (and no Sword of the Morning, since). I'm not saying I'm convinced, but the evidence is there if you want to see it.

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Howland Reed warged into Gerold Hightower to help Ned subdue Dayne. But, he was left a husk of a man, mentally deficient and can only say his name -- Hightower, Hutor, Hodor...

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I can't believe some people are that nuts.

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It all stems from various starting points - "8 empty cairns" is a popular one.

ToJ was at the edge of Dorne - Ned brought Dawn to Starfall, but not the remains of Ser Arthur? None of the bones were sent home except Lyanna's.

Most of us are convinced he tore down the Tower to cover up evidence of Jon's birth, but most also believe all those cats died in the battle, leaving only Ned and Howland Reed. However, even the families of Ned's bannermen thought it odd he didn't return their bones.

So, from that mystery comes lots of wild speculation. I particularly like the Oswell Whent = Oswell Kettleblack. It's obvious - they have the same first name. Like Superman putting on glasses and a suit. "Nope. Clark Kent looks nothing like Superman." But, what if he had taken the secret ID of "Kal-El Kent".

That is a weak spot in the theory, obviously.

Dayne=Halfhand makes a little sense. They kind of all are misfits running from something and don't get very many VIP visits - and VIPs could easily be dodged.

Hightower=Hodor - if you buy the origin story, working at the stables in Winterfell, you're going to run into people you would know, perhaps 1 time a decade.

Oswell "Kettleblack" - with the shockingly same first name, is from the Riverlands - and a member of the Kingsguard, would have many acquaintances in KL.

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But I don't think the Mance theory hinges on all the KG being alive

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No - I agree. But, Dayne at the Wall (as Halfhand) the same period that Mance was a member of the Watch (and, recall that Halfhand and Rayder were apparently friends) would at least bolster support for the Mance=Rhaegar theory - IMHO. Although I believe the former is more likely than the latter.

(ETA: And there are suggestions that Rhaegar was plugged into the PtwP prophecy, too, and that, despite perhaps not being even legitimate, much less closer than 3rd to the throne at the time of the fight - 3 KG fought to the death to protect JS. At that point, Aerys and Rhaegar are dead, as are Rhaegar's other children - Viserys and Dany would be next in line - Viserys technically "crownable" as king, on paper.)

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That's the problem I have with this theory. These guys were some of the most well known people in all of Westeros.

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This. Alliser Thorne is from The Crown Lands. I pretty sure he saw Kings' Guard often. If Mance was Danye, when Mance showed up Thorne would most likely have been like: "Dude, where the hell have you been?"