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re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS
Posted on 4/25/13 at 9:45 am to Methuselah
Posted on 4/25/13 at 9:45 am to Methuselah
quote:
2- Epilogue deals with one of the very youngest characters in the main story now being very elderly (maybe Gllly's baby). And being referred to as "Old Fred" (or whatever that character's name is). The old character would be regaling royal/noble children (could include a combination of andal, first men and maybe even Children of the forest kids). The story would be of that horrible winter and darkness, the worst ever experienced. And of how the heroes and heroines ...., ......., ..... and ..... prevailed through much loss and grief.
Rickon = Smith
"Creating" the story.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 10:13 am to OMLandshark
quote:
I highly, highly doubt this. Varys hates magic and has good reason to
Do you believe everything he says? Because Dragons are essentially magical creatures. He could be putting up a facade to deter he has any dealings with a blood line that is usually associated with magic and dragons.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 10:16 am to Hu_Flung_Pu
Or maybe it was a Targ ritual and Varys is a Targ. Thus stemming hate towards the Targs and wanting the opposing side to win.
This may make more sense. He cutting off black hair wouldn't be a big deal.
This may make more sense. He cutting off black hair wouldn't be a big deal.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 10:21 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Varys hates magic and has good reason to.
Yes.
However, I still think Varys is a Targaryen loyalist and not part of a Blackfyre conspiracy, (even though it is very possible)
He wants Aegon to rule, this is known.
He probably prefers to Aegon over Daenerys because she is still kind of stupid and ignorant about many things Westeros... whereas Aegon has been well groomed.
Whether or not Aegon is a Targ, Blackfyre, or pisswater prince makes little difference to Varys IMO.
But I don't think he wants Dany completely out of the picture, obviously the dragons help.
Moreover, I think it was Varys's initial plan to have Rhaegar take power from the mad king but thanks to Lyanna and Robert it didn't work out.
Varys was loyal to the Mad King but also contributed to his paranoia, thus catalyzing support for his removal in favor of Rhaegar who reportedly was on the verge of making serious changes in King's Landing before he died.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 10:23 am to Methuselah
quote:
1- Epilogue deals with some years after the story wraps up. Maybe Tyrion on his deathbed and his funeral. I'd kind of like to see some variation of a viking funeral or burial pyre but maybe involving the dragons (a flying in the air, dragon fire fueled burial pyre?). Though now that I think of it maybe Danny would be better for that part since she would kind of be adopting a variant of Khal Drogo's Dothraki funeral. Not sure who the POV would be for either scenario though.
I'll tell you who would be a very interesting final POV character for the Epilogue: Edmure Tully's son. Rhaegar was haunted by Summerhall and being conceived that night, imagine what kind of personality a person would have if they were conceived on the night of the Red Wedding and having to deal with being the product of that night. Him having half-Frey blood would make it interesting on how he perceives the aftermath of the war he was born in.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 10:33 am to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
But I don't think he wants Dany completely out of the picture, obviously the dragons help.
That and her Unsullied army I think are the only thing Varys wants from her and needs her alive for the time being.
quote:
Moreover, I think it was Varys's initial plan to have Rhaegar take power from the mad king but thanks to Lyanna and Robert it didn't work out.
Varys was loyal to the Mad King but also contributed to his paranoia, thus catalyzing support for his removal in favor of Rhaegar who reportedly was on the verge of making serious changes in King's Landing before he died.
He was plotting against Rhaegar long before Rhaegar met Lyanna. I just don't buy it at all that Varys wanted Rhaegar in power. Varys completely started Aerys' paranoia against his son. If Varys was loyal to Rhaegar, he would have sided with him over Aerys, like pretty much every other member of the Court did (including his Kingsguard). Aerys was nuts and everyone was just praying he died before he fricked up everything for Rhaegar.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 10:53 am to OMLandshark
I watching the show for the first time, and I know this is kinda off topic, but I didn't know which thread it was safe to post in.
I've read the books, but watching season 1 has reminded how frustrating it is to like Ned. Multiple times he could've saved the realm, but his misguided sense of honor doomed everyone.
It is so damn frustrating watching him make mistake after mistake.
I've read the books, but watching season 1 has reminded how frustrating it is to like Ned. Multiple times he could've saved the realm, but his misguided sense of honor doomed everyone.
It is so damn frustrating watching him make mistake after mistake.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 10:59 am to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
I think it was Varys's initial plan to have Rhaegar take power from the mad king but thanks to Lyanna and Robert it didn't work out.
If so, why did he tell Aerys that Rhaegar was plotting to overthrow him at the Harrenhal tourney?
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:04 am to Scruffy
quote:
Multiple times he could've saved the realm, but his misguided sense of honor doomed everyone.
In most fantasy series, a sense of honor is rarely a weakness or it works out in the end.
ASOIAF
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:08 am to Scruffy
quote:
I watching the show for the first time, and I know this is kinda off topic, but I didn't know which thread it was safe to post in.
You should be safe in most threads. Here's the breakdown:
Nonreaders thread (currently anchored) - no book discussion at all. Anyone who has ever read anything relating to the books, even background info, is not welcome.
Readers thread: open for discussion of show and all books, but preferably stay away from crackpot theorizing.
Crackpot thread (this one): no holds bared. Talk about anything and everything. No theories too far fetched to post or discuss.
Middle Ground Thread: discussion of show and events from books only up to where the show is in timeframe. No posting spoilers with future book info.
Art thread: post any ASOIAF art you wish. No spoiler limitations.
This post was edited on 4/25/13 at 11:09 am
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:09 am to NIH
quote:
If so, why did he tell Aerys that Rhaegar was plotting to overthrow him at the Harrenhal tourney?
Varys used that as an excuse to get Aerys to attend the Tournament, it just so happened to also be somewhat true.
No one had seen Aerys in five years outside the Red Keep.
Aerys II looked like crazy arse motherfricker (The beard, the hair, the 12 inch long fingernails, the emaciated appearance)
If someone wanted to rally support for Rhaegar, all you would have to do is get Aerys II to make a public appearance.
Not only did Varys do this, he also got the Mad King to make his public appearance in the shadow of Rhaegar's glory at the tournament.
This post was edited on 4/25/13 at 11:14 am
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:15 am to Scruffy
quote:
I watching the show for the first time, and I know this is kinda off topic, but I didn't know which thread it was safe to post in.
I've read the books, but watching season 1 has reminded how frustrating it is to like Ned. Multiple times he could've saved the realm, but his misguided sense of honor doomed everyone.
It is so damn frustrating watching him make mistake after mistake.
Yes. And, really, if you think about it, a ton of the Starks' (and in a way everyone's) problems come from the self inflicted wounds of Ned, Cat and Robb.
I think maybe it was Martin's way of saying - "ok, that was the typical world of fantasy fiction with shining good guys. Now here's something a little more realistic."
For sure, the younger Starks seem to have been toughened by the faults and subsequent tragedies of their older counterparts. Arya is pretty much an assassin. Sansa seems to be finally smartening up and has Littlefinger as a teacher. Jon (I count him as a Stark child for this discussion) has learned how to lie. How to kill both his own comrades (half-hand) and someone he loves (Ygrette), how to swap babies, etc. etc. No telling what Rickon will have learned when and if he comes back from Skagos.
Of course, then there's Theon, the hostage/foster "son". Not sure how he fits in to the dynamic. Whatever he did sure didn't work out very good for him.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:16 am to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
Varys used that as an excuse to get Aerys to attend the Tournament, it just so happened to also be somewhat true.
No one had seen Aerys in five years outside the Red Keep.
Aerys II looked like crazy arse motherfricker (The beard, the hair, the 12 inch long fingernails, the emaciated appearance)
If someone wanted to rally support for Rhaegar, all you would have to do is get Aerys II to make a public appearance.
Not only did Varys do this, he also got the Mad King to make his public appearance in the shadow of Rhaegar's glory at the tournament.
Also the Mad King, fricked with Tywin by making Jaime a Kingsguard and send Jaime to babysit an empty castle.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:18 am to Hugo Stiglitz
The complete Blackfyre Theory Part 1 of 2
quote:
THE THEORY
Aegon (Little Griff) is not actually the baby of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell, but is a Blackfyre impostor that Varys and Illyrio Mopatis are propping up as a real Targaryen. He is descended from the female Blackfyre line (all the males were killed). An additional variation to the theory is that Aegon is the child of Illyrio and his late wife Serra, who may have been a Blackfyre. Some think Varys may also have Blackfyre blood in him.
ARGUMENTS FOR
MUMMER'S DRAGON VISION
One of Dany's visions in the House of the Undying:
. . . Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . .
ACOK 48: DAENERYS IV
Dany later discusses the vision with Jorah:
“A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood . . . what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer’s dragon, you said. What is a mummer’s dragon, pray?”
“A cloth dragon on poles,” Dany explained. “Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight.”
ACOK 63: DAENERYS V
A "mummer's dragon" or fake dragon could be an metaphor for Aegon being a Blackfyre, and not a true dragon (i.e. Targaryen). The line "slayer of lies" may indicate that Aegon is one of the lies Dany may need to slay. Another way to interpret this is to say that Varys is the mummer and Aegon is the cloth dragon he is propping up. Varys is referred to as a mummer on several occasions.
THE GOLDEN COMPANY
Illyrio and Tyrion discuss the GC breaking it's contract:
“I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.”
“Myr.” Illyrio smirked. “Contracts can be broken.”
“There is more coin in cheese than I knew,” said Tyrion. “How did you accomplish that?”
The magister waggled his fat fingers. “Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more.”
... [Tyrion gives a history of the Golden Company and it's Blackfyre past] ...
“I admire your powers of persuasion,” Tyrion told Illyrio. “How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?”
Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. “Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre.” The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. “And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.”
ADWD 5: TYRION II
This quote is the best evidence for the Blackfyre theory and offers a lot of insight. The GC was originally founded by Bittersteel (Daemon Blackfyre's half-brother and closest ally), and their original mission was to seat a Blackfyre on the throne. Even after Daemon was killed in the first Blackfyre rebellion, Bittersteel tried several more times to seat one of Daemon's heirs on the throne until the last male heir died.
The GC has never broken a contract, but if it meant fulfilling their original mission statement this makes sense. While the broken Myr contract was written in "ink" the mission to restore a Blackfyre to the throne was written in "blood". This is also supported by the GC's motto: "Beneath the gold, the bitter steel."
Illyrio's justification for the GC breaking contract is that "black or red, a dragon is still a dragon". Meaning they don't care if it's a Targaryen or Blackfyre they're backing at this point so long as he leads them to Westeros. However, this seems to contradict a recollection Dany has:
Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him.
ADWD 16: DAENERYS III
It would seem they turned down Viserys, a red dragon, so maybe they still do care. Miles 'Blackheart' Toyne (former GC captain) is the one who made the contract with Illyrio in secret, and given the Toynes' bloody feud with the Targaryens it wouldn't make sense for him to make that contract to back a Targ.
ILLYRIO & SERRA
Another interesting tidbit from Illyrio in the above quote includes him specifically saying the male Blackfyre line was extinguished. This would seem to indicate a female line survived. That female could have been Illyrio's late wife Serra. Here is what he says of her:
Illyrio thrust his right hand up his left sleeve and drew out a silver locket. Inside was a painted likeness of a woman with big blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked by silver. “Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough, for Serra.”
...
“Good fortune,” Illyrio called after them. “Tell the boy I am sorry that I will not be with him for his wedding. I will rejoin you in Westeros. That I swear, by my sweet Serra’s hands.”
ADWD 5: TYRION II
We know from this that Serra has Valyrian features, blue eyes and silver-blonde hair. Although it should be noted that many people in Lys have Valyrian features as they were part of the Valyrian Freehold. Also, purple eyes are a more Targaryen feature than blue. From the last line we see that Illyrio has a very personal stake in Aegon's success and speaks very fondly of the boy. It's possible Aegon is Illyrio and Serra's son (with Serra being a Blackfyre). This would explain why Illyrio had a chest full of clothing meant for a small boy. It would also help explain why Illyrio is even interested in Westeros. He has all the money he could ever need and Tyrion even seems skeptical of Illyrio's motivations:
“Are you quite certain that Daenerys will make good her brother’s promises?”
“She will, or she will not.” Illyrio bit the egg in half. “I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay.”
Liar, thought Tyrion. There is something in this venture worth more to you than coin or castles. “You meet so few men who value friendship over gold these days.”
ADWD 5: TYRION II
So what is this "debt of affection" Illyrio looks to repay that is worth more than "coins" and "castles"? He may be trying to fulfill Serra's wish for their son to take the Iron Throne on behalf of the Blackfyres. While this all fits, it is still largely circumstantial.
Another piece of evidence possibly indicating Illyrio is Aegon's father is a statue he has in his manse that looks a lot like Aegon (Illyrio later claims it's a young version of himself)[/u/jbtalley]
A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo’s blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble, though his sword shimmered like true steel.
This post was edited on 4/25/13 at 11:27 am
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:18 am to Hugo Stiglitz
Part 2 of 2
Reddit link
quote:
ADWD 1: TYRION I
SEPTON MERIBALD'S STORY
Septon Meribald tells Brienne and Pod the story of the Crossroads Inn:
"...He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon.”
“Is the dragon sign still there?” asked Podrick.
“No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust..."
AFFC 37: BRIENNE VII
This story could be an allegory for Aegon being a Blackfyre. A black dragon is Blackfyre and a red dragon is a Targaryen. So the black dragons (Blackfyres) were forced across the Narrow Sea and many years later one of them (Aegon) rusted over and now appears to be a red dragon (Targ).
VARYS IS A BLACKFYRE
Varys being a Blackfyre is the most speculative part of the theory and need not be true for the other parts to be true. The evidence for it is entirely circumstantial, but it does explain some inconsistencies with Varys's character. Why despite claiming to be a Targaryen loyalist, he was feeding Aerys's paranoia about Rhaegar usurping the throne (according to accounts of Barristan and Jaime). Why he shaves his head, so that he can hide his Valyrian hair (although the same would be true if he were of any Valyrian descent, Blackfyre or otherwise). Also, why Varys was castrated as a boy. He tells Tyrion the following about his castration:
“One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion that made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he sliced me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke."
ACOK 44: TYRION X
We know from Melisandre's practices that sorcerers prefer to use royal blood in their rituals. If Varys was a Blackfyre he would have royal blood.
DUNK & EGG
A large portion of the Dunk & Egg novellas covers the history of the Blackfyre Rebellions. This could be hinting at a greater significance for the Blackfyres in the ASOAIF series as a whole. Of course it could also just be window dressing for the novellas and have no other significance.
AEGON BEING SAVED DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
How could Varys have known Gregor would smash baby Aegon's face beyond recognition? It's unlikely this could have been planned. [/u/jbtalley]
AGE DISCREPANCY
Aegon was born in 282AL, so by the time Tyrion meets him he should be around 18 years old. Yet here is Tyrion's description of Little Griff [/u/jbtalley]:
He was a lithe and well-made youth, with a lanky build and a shock of dark blue hair. The dwarf put his age at fifteen, sixteen, or near enough to make no matter.
ADWD 8: TYRION III
Of course it's very plausible that an 18 year old could be mistaken for 16, so I wouldn't call this strong evidence.
ADWD EARLY DRAFT
Earlier drafts of ADWD chapters have other clues. It is speculated that Martin cut a lot this material because it made Aegon's parentage too obvious.
From a 2005 reading of Tyrion II:
"Illyrio says he wants to give Young Griff his blessings and has a gift for him in the chests. Haldon tells him there is no time for the litter. Illyrio gets angry and says there are things Griff must know.
...
Haldon eyes Tyrion and then begins to speak in another language. Tyrion cannot tell what it is but think it might be Volantene. He catches a few words that come close to High Valyrian. The words he catches are, queen, dragon, and sword."
It has been speculated that Illyrio was going to give Young Griff "Blackfyre," the ancestral sword of House Targaryen that was taken overseas by the Blackfyres.
From Elio, who fact-checked earlier drafts of ADWD:
"An earlier draft of the "lesson" chapter had quite a bit more detail about Maelys the Monstrous and the Blackfyres (for those who have GoO's RPG, some of that information ended up in that book). I wonder why George decided to pull it from this book."
ARGUMENTS AGAINST
NO PROOF!
One big argument against this whole theory is that all of the evidence is basically circumstantial. That is not to say circumstantial evidence is invalid (especially in a book), but just that there is no smoking gun yet.
VARYS'S TALK WITH KEVAN
This is what Varys tells a dying Kevan Lannister:
“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. “Dead. He’s dead.”
“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”
ADWD 72: EPILOGUE
Varys directly answers Kevan's question about Aegon being dead and says he isn't. Why would Varys lie about Aegon to Kevan, who he was about to kill anyways? It is unlikely that if Aegon is a Blackfyre that Varys wouldn't know, because he was likely the one who smuggled baby Aegon out of King's Landing (or didn't), so he likely knows if Aegon is really Aegon. So why lie to a dying man about it? Some possible answers are:
Varys "little birds" were present when Kevan was dying, perhaps Varys meant to keep the truth about Aegon from them. [/u/ChurchHatesTucker]
Varys perhaps didn't lie. All he said is that "Aegon" isn't dead, but never said which Aegon he was referring to. [/u/jbtalley]
Varys doesn't know Aegon is a Blackfyre. Illyrio is the only one who knows and is playing him.
Reddit link
This post was edited on 4/25/13 at 11:49 am
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:19 am to Methuselah
quote:
No telling what Rickon will have learned when and if he comes back from Skagos.
Farva beans and a nice chianti...
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:23 am to Methuselah
quote:Really, everything that happens to the Starks can be placed at Cat's feet. If she wouldn't have grabbed Tyrion, Jaimie wouldn't have attacked Ned. Ned probably could've figured out what was going on and told Robert about how they weren't his kids.
Yes. And, really, if you think about it, a ton of the Starks' (and in a way everyone's) problems come from the self inflicted wounds of Ned, Cat and Robb.
quote:Yea, its pretty interesting how each of the Stark children have pretty much set out on completely different paths.
For sure, the younger Starks seem to have been toughened by the faults and subsequent tragedies of their older counterparts. Arya is pretty much an assassin. Sansa seems to be finally smartening up and has Littlefinger as a teacher. Jon (I count him as a Stark child for this discussion) has learned how to lie. How to kill both his own comrades (half-hand) and someone he loves (Ygrette), how to swap babies, etc. etc. No telling what Rickon will have learned when and if he comes back from Skagos.
quote:I fully expect him to redeem himself. He has spent his entire life as a captive and I expect that, one way or another, he will end up free.
Of course, then there's Theon, the hostage/foster "son". Not sure how he fits in to the dynamic. Whatever he did sure didn't work out very good for him.
He is either going to somehow end up ruling the Iron Islands, although that one is iffy because I thought he was castrated, and if that is the case, I don't see him becoming ruler.
The other path I expect is that he dies doing something honorable. A sacrifice to save another life maybe.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 11:47 am to Napoleon
What is that last one from?
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