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re: Ugly Data For Apple Shows How Desperately It Needs iPhone 6 To Be A Hit

Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:51 am to
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:51 am to
quote:

I said they should be interested in selling their phones to customers who are buying low-end Android phones.

They have made a conscious decision to not address this market. They are executing on their strategy.

Is their strategy wrong? Maybe, I dunno.
Posted by colorchangintiger
Dan Carlin
Member since Nov 2005
30979 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:52 am to
quote:

I didn't say Apple should sell a low-end phone, I said they should be interested in selling their phones to customers who are buying low-end Android phones.


I fail to see how the two are not synonymous. How are you going to sell a $270 iPhone (going price for a new iPhone 4 in India) to someone who makes $400/year?

quote:

I don't think that, at all. Not even close.


You're right, you never said that, but that seems to be the ongoing perception from many.

quote:

Not questioning their tactics, just agreeing with the guy who said that Apple desperately needs iPhone6 to be a hit. Because they do.


That's insinuating that it has a good chance not to be a hit though. Like I said, 13 million in the first weekend. Any takers?
This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 10:52 am
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61496 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:53 am to
quote:

How come no one is posting articles like "Google is desperate to increase ad revenue"


Because Google is firmly in control of it's position as King of the Hill. I think the iPhone 6 is going to be a homerun for Apple and this will be much ado about nothing, but it's pretty undeniable how badly a flop would hurt them at this point.

quote:

Anyone care to bet on the first weekend of iPhone sales this year? 13 million in the first weekend sound like a good number? I won't post on the tech board for a year if I'm wrong.


I think you're completely missing the point of the thread. It is not saying the iPhone 6 will be a flop, just that Apple really can't afford for it to be one.

quote:

That's insinuating that it has a good chance not to be a hit though.


No it doesn't, it's just a reflection of the current state of the mobile market and how if Apple were to stumble at this point there might be an irreversible shift in momentum.

I'm looking forward to how successful the iPhone 6 is going to be. Healthy competition is what's best for consumers, not one side dominating the other. We are consumers of devices, not members of a corporate team, some people need to realize that and ratchet down the amount of emotion they have invested in a hunk of metal, plastic and glass.
This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 11:13 am
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28708 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Don't iOS apps on average generate more revenue than their android equivalents?
Yep, but the trend is that Android is closing the gap in this regard. Strong chance that this is following the market share trend, wouldn't you think?
quote:

I'm really not trying to put words in your mouth, but you keep saying things like, "there are implications" without specifically saying what will happen.
If I were to type out everything that needs to be said on this topic, I would be here all day. I usually take the approach of trying to get people to think for themselves, but that just doesn't seem to work on some people.
Posted by TigerGman
Center of the Universe
Member since Sep 2006
11207 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 10:59 am to
quote:

f I were to type out everything that needs to be said on this topic,


But the topic is "data shows Apple desperately needs the 6 to be hit"

Even though I have no doubt it will be a hit, I also have no doubt they aren't in anyway desperate for it to be.
Kia buyers buy entry level Kias for a reason--they can't afford a Mercedes and most of them never will.

So Kia growing into low profit bottom feeder market share hardly translates to desperation on Mercedes's part.


This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 11:01 am
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28708 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:08 am to
quote:

So Kia growing into low profit bottom feeder market share hardly translates to desperation on Mercedes's part.
Except Android isn't Kia, and iOS/iPhone isn't Mercedes.
Posted by colorchangintiger
Dan Carlin
Member since Nov 2005
30979 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:11 am to
quote:

Except Android isn't Kia


the part of the market where they are getting there massive growth from is.

quote:

iOS/iPhone isn't Mercedes.


It's a pretty good comparison when comparing the automobile market to the smartphone market.
Posted by TigerGman
Center of the Universe
Member since Sep 2006
11207 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:15 am to
quote:

xcept Android isn't Kia, and iOS/iPhone isn't Mercedes.



We'll...


quote:

What I'm saying is that if Kia were to start making cars of the quality of Mercedes, and market them at the same people, that the relatively large base of happy Kia customers would have an upgrade path that favors Kia's higher end models, and Mercedes would have a problem.
Your words not mine.

Besides. I think that's just the point. Much of Android's market share growth is in 3rd world shite holes with third world shite phones--the Kia market that isn;t ever going to translate into a Mercedes buyer. So why should Apple feel desperate over not expanding into buyers that can't afford their products and never will?
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:21 am to
quote:

I'm looking forward to how successful the iPhone 6 is going to be. Healthy competition is what's best for consumers, not one side dominating the other. We are consumers of devices, not members of a corporate team, some people need to realize that and ratchet down the amount of emotion they have invested in a hunk of metal, plastic and glass.


Troof!

quote:

I think the iPhone 6 is going to be a homerun for Apple and this will be much ado about nothing, but it's pretty undeniable how badly a flop would hurt them at this point.

I don't think a flop would hurt them that much. Although it would be the end of Cook.

They have a lot of momentum, and phones are lasting much longer these days. My wife's 4s is chugging along just great and we bought it at launch date. She is about to get my 5 though.

Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28708 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 11:57 am to
quote:

It's a pretty good comparison when comparing the automobile market to the smartphone market.
A better one would be, if iPhone is Mercedes, then Android is Kia, Toyota, Ford, BMW, Lexus, and Audi, and all your accessories for your Kia work just fine on an Audi.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28708 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

Your words not mine.
ForeLSU started the Kia/Mercedes shite, I just attempted to apply it to the smartphone market. And then you shite all over it by removing the part that makes it applicable to the smartphone market.
quote:

Besides. I think that's just the point. Much of Android's market share growth is in 3rd world shite holes with third world shite phones--the Kia market that isn;t ever going to translate into a Mercedes buyer. So why should Apple feel desperate over not expanding into buyers that can't afford their products and never will?
"Hey, I like your Kia, but do they make better ones?" Yep.

Do you think that Apple got to where they are because they didn't bother converting cheap PC buyers into expensive Mac buyers, or converting cheap feature phone buyers into expensive original iPhone buyers? The day a company loses that "desperate" feeling is the day the company starts its decline, because you know there's another company that desperately wants what they've got.
Posted by ZereauxSum
Lot 23E
Member since Nov 2008
10176 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

Yep, but the trend is that Android is closing the gap in this regard. Strong chance that this is following the market share trend, wouldn't you think?


Closing the gap in revenue generation? Eh...

Yeah the play store app revenue is growing, but it's still only half what the app store is, despite 8 out of every 10 phones in the world running android.

How much market share does android need to close this gap?

quote:

I usually take the approach of trying to get people to think for themselves, but that just doesn't seem to work on some people.


Well then there are a lot of morons in this thread because a lot of us are misinterpreting your conclusion
Posted by CAD703X
Liberty Island
Member since Jul 2008
78075 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

Between June 2013 and June 2014, Apple paid out $10 billion to developers. In the same time frame, Google paid out $5 billion to developers. But yeah, all consumers are equal.


you're cherry picking again. its no big surprise given apple's DOMINATION early on and their premium-pay-for-everything ecosystem that developers have made alot of money from the emerging market.

here's a more realistic view of the market today (not just money)

quote:

As of July 2013 the Google Play store has had over 1 million Android apps published, and over 50 billion apps downloaded.

A developer survey conducted in April–May 2013 found that 71% of mobile developers develop for Android.

At Google I/O 2014, the company revealed that there were over 1 billion active monthly Android users (that have been active for 30 days), up from 538 million in June 2013


these are all signs of a healthy growing juggernaut no?

this doesn't strike me as a 'appless feature phone the poors buy' market.
This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 12:16 pm
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61496 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

these are all signs of a healthy growing juggernaut no?


I think it's a bit misleading since so much of Android's growth has come from the 3rd world. I'm not saying you can't sell apps to the 3rd world, but if I were Apple, I'd rather have 60% of the "West" than 80% of the "rest". Google, with its advertising driven business model, is certainly in a better position to monetize those markets than Apple.

Posted by CAD703X
Liberty Island
Member since Jul 2008
78075 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

Google, with its advertising driven business model, is certainly in a better position to monetize those markets than Apple.


which brings up a very interesting point.

when COLORCHANGE is comparing "apples to candy" :rimshot: does that account for 'free' apps that use ad-views as the source of revenue?

iow, as i see it..most android apps are free and make money through ad revenue.

does that fall into google's gigantic ad-based payouts or is it considered under the 'android developer' payouts?
Posted by ZereauxSum
Lot 23E
Member since Nov 2008
10176 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

when COLORCHANGE is comparing "apples to candy" does that account for 'free' apps that use ad-views as the source of revenue?


It didn't say in the article, but since that figure was announced by Google during I/O, I would like to think that it includes ad revenue. Why would they exclude it?
This post was edited on 8/20/14 at 12:38 pm
Posted by CAD703X
Liberty Island
Member since Jul 2008
78075 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

I would like to think that it includes ad revenue. Why would they exclude it?


ad views on an android device..either via browser or 'in app' ads might go into a different bucket than payouts to developers from the play store revenue sharing.

i have no idea if it works one way or the other..just pointing out high-dollar apps have never been android's forte.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28708 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

Closing the gap in revenue generation? Eh...

Yeah the play store app revenue is growing, but it's still only half what the app store is, despite 8 out of every 10 phones in the world running android.

How much market share does android need to close this gap?
It doesn't need any more (though getting more can't hurt), it just takes time for development and monetization to shift, as monetization lags behind development and development lags behind market shifts. Current Play Store vs. App Store revenues are a reflection of the state of the market probably 2-3 years ago. If market share were to remain constant for the next 3 years, I would expect Android's app revenue to catch up by then.
quote:

Well then there are a lot of morons in this thread
You got that right.
Posted by colorchangintiger
Dan Carlin
Member since Nov 2005
30979 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:28 pm to
damn you are insufferable.

How am I cherry picking when I used the same stats that both companies gave and bragged about?

quote:

its no big surprise given apple's DOMINATION early on and their premium-pay-for-everything ecosystem that developers have made alot of money from the emerging market.


This isn't lifetime stats of the respective OS, it is the numbers from the past year alone when Android already had a HUGE market share lead, so early on domination 4-6 years ago doesn't really matter here.

quote:

these are all signs of a healthy growing juggernaut no?


I never said Android is not growing and is unhealthy as a platform.

quote:

this doesn't strike me as a 'appless feature phone the poors buy' market.


I never said that was the entire Android market. I never said that the cheap phones are app-less feature phones either. I'm pretty sure almost all of them can install/run apps. I am saying that is where Android is seeing the most growth (China and India). The biggest phone manufacturer in China right now is Xiaomi who's most expensive "flagship" phone is $240. Check it out But know that a large majority of these phones sold in China and India are not true Android phones, they are AOSP, so they don't have access to the Google Play store, etc.

And about ad revenue in apps, you're dismissing that a large majority of iOS apps are also free and ad supported. Combine that with usage share stats and it makes everything very murky.
Posted by CAD703X
Liberty Island
Member since Jul 2008
78075 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 1:30 pm to
quote:

damn you are insufferable.

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