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Started By
Message
re: There are several situations where the USA will advance.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 8:54 am to LukeSidewalker
Posted on 6/23/14 at 8:54 am to LukeSidewalker
quote:
Ok. 1 match can still make or break you no matter what. The scenarios of going through from this point favor Germany and make Portugal longshots based off 1 match.
If we would have lost to Portugal tonight and both us and them draw our last game then we both finish on 4 points with us going through instead of them. Even looking at it in a positive for us it would still be unfair to them.
Let's look at this closer. For a "tiebreaker" to be needed (throwing out gd):
USA would have:
- beaten Ghana
- Tied Portugal (last in the group)
- Lost to Germany (group winners)
Ghana would have:
- lost to the US
- tied Germany (group winners)
- beaten Portugal (last in the group)
Why should our win trump their resume?
This post was edited on 6/23/14 at 8:57 am
2
Posted on 6/23/14 at 9:21 am to TN Bhoy
what if Portugal beats Ghana by 4 goals, we lose to Germany by 1 goal and the total goals scored between us and Portugal ends up tied?
who advances then?
who advances then?
Posted on 6/23/14 at 9:38 am to TN Bhoy
Its simple. Their resume isnt any better than our resume. The aggregate is 2-1 in our favor.
If margin of victory is used to decide advancement then Alabama and not Auburn would have won the SEC west in 2013. They were both exactly 5-1 vs SEC west foes. Auburn had a lot of close games and Alabama didnt. People would have been rightfully pissed if that happened.
If margin of victory is used to decide advancement then Alabama and not Auburn would have won the SEC west in 2013. They were both exactly 5-1 vs SEC west foes. Auburn had a lot of close games and Alabama didnt. People would have been rightfully pissed if that happened.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 2:47 pm to Mahootney
Can we update the OP with the charts?
Posted on 6/23/14 at 4:42 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:The next tiebreaker is total goals. As of now, we have 4 and they have 2. So it depends on the score. If we lost 1-0 and they won 4-0 they would advance. If we lost something like 4-3 and they won 4-0 we would still be fine. If we lost 3-2 and they won 4-0 I believe FIFA would "randomly" select.
what if Portugal beats Ghana by 4 goals, we lose to Germany by 1 goal and the total goals scored between us and Portugal ends up tied?
who advances then?
Posted on 6/23/14 at 4:47 pm to tween the hedges
And that chart thats now in the OP is kind of scaring me. I thought we were pretty safe with a 1 goal loss to Germany. Looks like a lot could go wrong if Ghana comes to play
Posted on 6/23/14 at 5:44 pm to tween the hedges
quote:
And that chart thats now in the OP is kind of scaring me
If we lose by one, we still advance if Ghana wins by one. That is also very likely.
We need to score first, that will be huge.
We can't go down early and then press, and open ourselves up to a counter attack that could get us down 2-0. That would be killer.
I'm hoping for a 1-1 tie for Ghana and Portugal.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 6:24 pm to KosmoCramer
Well it would then go to the goals for tiebreaker if we lose by 1 and they win by 1. So if they win 3-2 and we lose 1-0 then we're out. I read another article saying basically the scores had to be flipped for us and them for us to advance by losing and them winning. So like if they won 4-3 and we lost 3-4 then we would go. Same if they win 3-2 and we lose 2-3.
This post was edited on 6/23/14 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 6/23/14 at 9:16 pm to tween the hedges
Here is a better chart compared to the one I posted early.
Posted on 6/24/14 at 4:14 am to BeYou
I hate the bottom right of that chart with a passion.
Basic summary is
Germany is likely through no matter what. Even if we beat them it wont be bad enough to knock them out. Ghana/Portugal would have to be a 6 goal or more game. They are probally 1st and at least 2nd.
Portugal has to have USA 2009 Confederations Cup result to advance.
Ghana has to win by 2 and hope the USMNT loses or win and hope USA loses by 2 or more.
USA can win or draw and advance. Advance of a Portugal/Ghana draw regardless of our Germany result. Advance if we lose and the winner of of Portugal/Ghana doesnt make up goal difference.
Basic summary is
Germany is likely through no matter what. Even if we beat them it wont be bad enough to knock them out. Ghana/Portugal would have to be a 6 goal or more game. They are probally 1st and at least 2nd.
Portugal has to have USA 2009 Confederations Cup result to advance.
Ghana has to win by 2 and hope the USMNT loses or win and hope USA loses by 2 or more.
USA can win or draw and advance. Advance of a Portugal/Ghana draw regardless of our Germany result. Advance if we lose and the winner of of Portugal/Ghana doesnt make up goal difference.
Posted on 6/24/14 at 9:42 am to tween the hedges
quote:would be scary as shite
If we lost 3-2 and they won 4-0 I believe FIFA would "randomly" select.
Posted on 6/24/14 at 1:48 pm to LukeSidewalker
Edit: I think the Ghana win by one/US lose by one is a little messed up. It goes to total goals first.
This post was edited on 6/24/14 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 6/24/14 at 6:22 pm to tween the hedges
I don't understand why they don't do a head-to-head tiebreaker first if two teams are tied in points. That easily makes the most sense to me.
Posted on 6/24/14 at 11:35 pm to Colonel Flagg
quote:It's about total group performance. Plus, it gives all teams an incentive to give maximum effort and score as many goals as possible (unless they are already through before the 3rd game).
I don't understand why they don't do a head-to-head tiebreaker first if two teams are tied in points. That easily makes the most sense to me.
Getting blown out (like Portugal did) matters. It hurts Portugal's chances and almost locks Germany into advancing.
Posted on 6/26/14 at 9:10 am to Mahootney
With Ghana losing two key players, it hurts Ghana's chance of winning by 2 goals or more.
I'm not sure Portugal can score enough to overcome the GD.
Looking good for the USA to advance, but I'd much rather have the ticket punched already.... obviously.
In any case, it was fun having a sticky. Now.... let's go win the Group!!!!
I'm not sure Portugal can score enough to overcome the GD.
Looking good for the USA to advance, but I'd much rather have the ticket punched already.... obviously.
In any case, it was fun having a sticky. Now.... let's go win the Group!!!!
Posted on 6/26/14 at 9:37 am to Mahootney
That 2 point nutshot Portugal gave us at the end really hurt my feelings. Already through with a win/draw clinching the group. About 6, 7, or 9 points in the group of death would have been huge for us.
I hope we advance and start fresh. It doesn't matter who we play to me at this point anyway.
I hope we advance and start fresh. It doesn't matter who we play to me at this point anyway.
Posted on 6/26/14 at 12:05 pm to LukeSidewalker
So far so good
Posted on 6/26/14 at 12:19 pm to supatigah
Nice going supadouche
Posted on 6/26/14 at 12:45 pm to TigerFred
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