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re: Bill Plaschke gonna Bill Plaschke

Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:23 pm to
Posted by magildachunks
Member since Oct 2006
32482 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:23 pm to
Here's a painful example for me of how it's not all luck:

quote:

After studying penalty-kick tendencies on video, a researcher correctly predicted where and how Chelsea players would take their penalties during the 2008 Champions League final, won in a shootout by Manchester United in Moscow.


Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

There is no more luck in pk's than there is at any other point in the game.



But there is much much more skill and tactics involved throughout an entire game.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
70855 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:25 pm to
quote:

Goalie guesses right, he just throws his body out there trying to block the ball with anything he can hoping he stops it.



You really think it is that easy, huh?

quote:

A batter's swing is much more coordinated and precise.



So is kicking the ball on a PK
Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:25 pm to
quote:

Here's a painful example for me of how it's not all luck:


That's likely just an exception to the norm.

But wither way, do goalies have all of this information at their disposal?
Posted by SabiDojo
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
83929 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:26 pm to
You do realize that goalkeepers have to guess on where the ball is going to go on a free kick, right?
Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:26 pm to
quote:

So is kicking the ball on a PK


I agree kicking is a little more precise. But we were just talking about the goalie.

Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
70855 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:27 pm to
quote:

But we were just talking about the goalie


No we weren't. We are talking about PK's being more or less a guessing game that either require skill or not.
Posted by magildachunks
Member since Oct 2006
32482 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:28 pm to
quote:

But wither way, do goalies have all of this information at their disposal?




Yes.


That info is studied by the clubs and teams. The coaches and goalies have studied the tendencies of the shooters.

The shooters have studied the tendencies of the goalies.
Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:30 pm to
My thing is: the majority of a PK process/result is left to chance. Goalie has to GUESS right to be successful for the most part. Thre's no skill involved on the goalies part on a PK. There is some skill involved on the kicker's part to actually kick the ball accurately. But he is guessing too on where the goalie will go.

Lot's of guessing and hoping. Not much skill.
Posted by Seeker
Member since Jul 2011
1846 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:31 pm to
This type of reply is idiotic. It is similar to the "if you don't want a team to celebrate in the end zone, don't let them score a touchdown." As if that is some simple, yet genius solution that is radically different than what they were just trying to do.

I'm ok with the goal kicks, but I wouldn't mind seeing them use corner kicks either. Those are IMO more exciting and have many more variables than almost complete luck involved to stop a goal kick.
Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:31 pm to
But even so, how much of a sample size do you have to base these guesses on?
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
70855 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:32 pm to
quote:

the majority of a PK process/result is left to chance


So is pretty much every scenario in every sport.

quote:

Goalie has to GUESS right to be successful for the most part.


Again, every sport, guessing the right call is a big part.

quote:

Thre's no skill involved on the goalies part on a PK.


Not true. Goalies guess right all the time and still don't stop the shot.

quote:

There is some skill involved on the kicker's part to actually kick the ball accurately


Not sure why you used the word "some".

quote:

But he is guessing too on where the goalie will go.


See above.

quote:

Lot's of guessing and hoping. Not much skill.



False.
Posted by magildachunks
Member since Oct 2006
32482 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:32 pm to
quote:

But even so, how much of a sample size do you have to base these guesses on?




The entire career of the participants involved
Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:34 pm to
quote:

The entire career of the participants involved


What is the average amount of PKs taken by a player in a career?
Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:36 pm to
quote:

So is pretty much every scenario in every sport.


So there is just as much luck in making a basketball or complting a pass as there is in a PK?



quote:

Again, every sport, guessing the right call is a big part.


Some more some less. For a goalie, if he does not guess right, there is NO CHANCE that he will block the ball. For an offensive coordinator, if he guesses wrong, there is still a great chance of success.
Posted by thesoccerfanjax
Member since Nov 2013
6128 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:38 pm to
An average wouldn't mean anything. Some players will never take one. Some will take hundreds.
Posted by thesoccerfanjax
Member since Nov 2013
6128 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:39 pm to
You can guess wrong and save it with your foot. It happens all the time.
Posted by noonan
Nassau Bay, TX
Member since Aug 2005
36900 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:39 pm to
quote:

For an offensive coordinator, if he guesses wrong, there is still a great chance of success.



Or a great chance for failure.
Posted by Chair
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:40 pm to
Ok. So some may only have taken three in the career at the time of a PK. So how do the tendencies play out there?

If that guy as able to predict 85% right or whatever it was, why can't these teams do it all the time?
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
70855 posts
Posted on 6/28/14 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

So there is just as much luck in making a basketball or complting a pass as there is in a PK?



If you are going to make a smart arse retort with an emoticon, at least make sure you spell everything correctly.

And where did I ever say anything about the impact of the guessing. You're entire crux of this argument was that PK's are dumb because it's a guessing game, well, there is guessing in all sports.

You are coming off as very ignorant here.
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