Why aren't gold and silver prices be back at pre 2008/2009 levels?

Never mind. Misread your post.

Take your men's rea and shove it up your arse you 1L cuck

There's still a fear-based, omg the dollar is worth nothing, trade

If you can tolerate a reference to the Money Talk Board, we had a discussion on this topic last August, and I made a post giving my thoughts there. I recognized the same anomaly that you are now:

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At $1,336.42/oz., the current spot price of gold ( LINK) is at about 5.54 times the CPI for June, which was 241.038. A historical 3.4 target price might be closer to around $820.

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I don't know much about silver, but to follow up on your question about gold, I would say the following:

(1) That 3.4 historical ratio is not much of a ratio, since it only goes back to 1971. (Your target ratio appears to be even lower than 3.4 with your given $600-700 range.) In post-1971 times, about a quarter of that time window is taken up with the post-USSR tech boom of the 1990s, when prices were dropping. That was a highly unusual era, and maybe a better ratio would be closer to 4.

(2) In pre-1971 times, there were eras when the multiple was much higher. You can go back centuries and look at the results, but really, maybe the idea of a CPI multiple is barking up the wrong tree. In current times, gold gets its monetary value because sovereign central banks choose to hold it. After the 2008 financial crisis, some central banks decided to hold more gold. Maybe gold speculators think that a major country or two may opt for a gold-backed monetary system in the near future.

(3) We are in an extremely weird era of capital markets right now. Yesterday a Barron's money managers poll came out ( LINK) where 44% thought the U.S. stock market was overvalued, versus 9% who thought the U.S. stock market was undervalued. Yet 51% were bullish for 2017 versus only 9% who were bearish for 2017. That's a bit strange. It's like everybody knows that expected returns on stocks are a bad deal compared to other times in history, but in the current time, every other asset class looks even worse. So gold as a hedge is very attractive right now for those who see how weird the current stock market is, even as they continue to stay in it as it rises to its eventual local peak.


In conclusion, I agree with you that the price of gold at $1268 still looks too high, but it's much more normal than it was 5-6 years ago.

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Something does not seem right, anyone have a guess why PM's are still so high?

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Insecurity --- whether it be d/t political/economic concern, currency devaluation, debt, war.

IMO if you are looking at a PM hedge, platinum may be a safer bet than gold for the time being.

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That's the bottom line right there. It translates to an overvalued propped-up market built for profit taking at the expense of the general public (sic: middle class) ... but everyone understands the game these days.

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In conclusion, I agree with you that the price of gold at $1268 still looks too high, but it's much more normal than it was 5-6 years ago.



It was probably, hell it definitely was, undervalued in 2008 ... obviously. It taught us all a lot of lessons predicated on having the knowledge to recognize and admit to existing bubbles.

So, we now live in a market of assumed bubbles ... everywhere. Thus the current value of gold and platinum.

Silver is a different story for different reasons not the least of which being that there is no perceived shortage of silver.

There are other metal markets that should be considered semi-precious and make for excellent investments if you know where to look ... and why.

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I think we're on the same line of thinking, I just want to be ready when the next PM run up starts. Hell we could see 200-300% increases in gold and silver, not really a gold bug but I would like to cash in on the next bull market for PM's. If I would have just bought in 2007 when gold was around $600/oz and got out at $1900/oz in 2011.

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We are in an extremely weird era of capital markets right now. Yesterday a Barron's money managers poll came out ( LINK) where 44% thought the U.S. stock market was overvalued, versus 9% who thought the U.S. stock market was undervalued. Yet 51% were bullish for 2017 versus only 9% who were bearish for 2017. That's a bit strange. It's like everybody knows that expected returns on stocks are a bad deal compared to other times in history, but in the current time, every other asset class looks even worse. So gold as a hedge is very attractive right now for those who see how weird the current stock market is, even as they continue to stay in it as it rises to its eventual local peak.

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This is a good summary.

I'd say inflated asset prices are across the board, and the uncertainty over which are more overvalued than others is not only difficult to ascertain, but in this political and economic climate, a moving target.