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Started By
Message
re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 12/29/14 at 5:55 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 12/29/14 at 5:55 pm to LSURussian
quote:
You're trying way too hard. And for what? I can't figure it out. Neither can all the other posters who have called you out in this thread....
Me? You're the one who mentioned my name again for no reason.
Too hard? You're also the one telling insane lies about PIMCO.
I'm merely interested in making money. I can't think of a single thing I've ever predicted to be a certainty that I didn't try to seek out a way to put some serious dough to work for.
But tell us more about how you didn't mention oil or any potential Chinese bailout in your OP. Also, fill us in on why you extended from 6 months to 12 months based on me asking you about it. Do tell. Do go on.
2
Posted on 12/29/14 at 6:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:I had a reason. Anyone with any brains at all would know that.
Me? You're the one who mentioned my name again for no reason.
quote:There was no need to do so even if I had seen those events coming. The debt situation in Russia and its faltering economy and currency were what I was basing my prediction on. You're just strange even asking that question. Again, your agenda baffles me.
But tell us more about how you didn't mention oil or any potential Chinese bailout in your OP.
quote:If you had bought RUSS (an inverse Russian stock market ETF) on October 2 when you first started questioning me about my prediction, you would have more than doubled your money in less than 3 months.
I'm merely interested in making money.
You're not interested in making money. You have some weird agenda that makes your posts really boring. And a little bitchy, too.
ETA: And the odds for default have gone from 33:1 to 16:1, not 24:1 to 16:1. Your math skills need improving.
This post was edited on 12/29/14 at 7:21 pm
Posted on 12/29/14 at 7:39 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Me? You're the one who mentioned my name again for no reason.
you should RA...he's obviously stalking you
Posted on 12/29/14 at 8:01 pm to aaronb023
Oh, look, there's my other stalker! Welcome! 
Posted on 12/29/14 at 9:15 pm to LSURussian
quote:
ETA: And the odds for default have gone from 33:1 to 16:1, not 24:1 to 16:1. Your math skills need improving.
Stop being a twit. When I posted odds on November 24th (exactly 5 week ago) it was just under 25:1. You are terrible at playing gotcha.
quote:
If you had bought RUSS (an inverse Russian stock market ETF) on October 2 when you first started questioning me about my prediction, you would have more than doubled your money in less than 3 months.
Chump change. I want to put up 4 cents to make 100. I can find 2X's all over the place without your help, thanks.
But let's go back and hear your story of why you were forced to double your prediction, merely at my lightly questioning your absurd 6 month timeline. I'm sure there must have been some reason that you have yet to grace us with. Do tell.
Posted on 12/29/14 at 9:43 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Chump change. I want to put up 4 cents to make 100. I can find 2X's all over the place without your help, thanks.
Cool your jets bro. There's no such thing as putting up 4 to make 100 consistently - you just outed yourself. Scrub you are true to your name.
Posted on 12/29/14 at 9:55 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:What the frick did you just fricking say about me, you little bitch? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in Harvard Business School, and I’ve been involved in numerous leveraged buyouts, and I have over 300 million invested in my Cayman Islands bank account alone. I am trained in portfolio management and I’m the top short seller in the entire US market. You are nothing to me but just another piggy bank. I will wipe the value of your assets the frick out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fricking words. You think you can get away with saying that shite to me over the Internet? Think again, fricker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of accountants across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your Roth IRA. You’re fricking over, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can make you broke in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just if I stick to stocks. Not only am I extensively trained in equity markets, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the Securities and Exchange Commission and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable arse off the face of the continent, you little shite. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fricking tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shite fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re fricking done, kiddo.
Chump change. I want to put up 4 cents to make 100. I can find 2X's all over the place without your help, thanks.
Posted on 12/29/14 at 10:00 pm to ironsides
quote:
There's no such thing as putting up 4 to make 100 consistently
Consistently? What do you mean?
CDS is just another form of put option, essentially. If the spread is 400bps, then the purchaser of credit default protection is responsible ONLY for paying the 400bps running annually. That is, an agreed upon "face" amount is in play, and in this example, the buyer of protection would pay 4% of that amount each year until the contract expired (usually they are 5 year contracts).
Now, if Russia defaults, then the owner of credit default protection is entitled to be paid out the face amount minus any recovery value of the bonds. If the loss is total (and I asked Russian earlier about this, he seemed to say that in 1998 recovery was 0, although I thought I read it was in the mid-teens) then the payout would be 100 cents...i.e. 24X the "investment".
What part don't you understand?
Posted on 12/29/14 at 10:02 pm to Iosh
quote:
What the frick did you just fricking say about me, you little bitch? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in Harvard Business School, and I’ve been involved in numerous leveraged buyouts, and I have over 300 million invested in my Cayman Islands bank account alone. I am trained in portfolio management and I’m the top short seller in the entire US market. You are nothing to me but just another piggy bank. I will wipe the value of your assets the frick out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fricking words. You think you can get away with saying that shite to me over the Internet? Think again, fricker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of accountants across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your Roth IRA. You’re fricking over, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can make you broke in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just if I stick to stocks. Not only am I extensively trained in equity markets, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the Securities and Exchange Commission and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable arse off the face of the continent, you little shite. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fricking tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shite fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re fricking done, kiddo.
Somehow I knew this would pop up here.
Posted on 12/29/14 at 10:17 pm to Navytiger74
What is that diatribe from?
ETA: Never mind. I found it.
ETA: Never mind. I found it.
This post was edited on 12/29/14 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 12/29/14 at 10:27 pm to Big Scrub TX
Dumbass I understand math but consistent 24x returns would make you the best investment manager in history if you are doing it with real money, assuming you never lost your shirt in other areas. Quit while you're only slightly behind
Posted on 12/29/14 at 10:32 pm to ironsides
Consistent 2X would make you an all time great. Scrub is acting like a scrub in this thread.
Posted on 12/29/14 at 10:32 pm to LSURussian
quote:
What is that diatribe from?
Not sure of the origin, but it has a Navy SEAL version and has become something of a meme.
Posted on 12/29/14 at 10:34 pm to Navytiger74
Thanks. I found it by googling and edited my above post to reflect that.
Posted on 12/30/14 at 2:50 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:I wonder what the vampire squids at Goldman Sachs are doing...? That would tell us a lot about how this will play out.
CDS is just another form of put option, essentially. If the spread is 400bps, then the purchaser of credit default protection is responsible ONLY for paying the 400bps running annually. That is, an agreed upon "face" amount is in play, and in this example, the buyer of protection would pay 4% of that amount each year until the contract expired (usually they are 5 year contracts). Now, if Russia defaults, then the owner of credit default protection is entitled to be paid out the face amount minus any recovery value of the bonds. If the loss is total (and I asked Russian earlier about this, he seemed to say that in 1998 recovery was 0, although I thought I read it was in the mid-teens) then the payout would be 100 cents...i.e. 24X the "investment". What part don't you understand?
Posted on 12/30/14 at 8:55 am to Big Scrub TX
Russian already said pages ago that he likely shouldn't have put the 6month number on it, but just decided not to change the thread title.
Relax dude and just let this debacle play out.
Relax dude and just let this debacle play out.
Posted on 12/30/14 at 11:10 am to ironsides
quote:
Dumbass I understand math but consistent 24x returns would make you the best investment manager in history if you are doing it with real money, assuming you never lost your shirt in other areas. Quit while you're only slightly behind
When did I ever ask for "consistent" 24X returns? What about the obvious don't you understand? The OP has alleged 100% certainty in an outcome in which trading markets imply only a 4-6% chance. Why would he ignore such an historic opportunity? The answer? Because he's a grandstanding windbag who is full of shite.
I very obviously DO NOT BELIEVE that a 24X return is on offer. The OP SAYS he does, yet continually dodges the question.
Posted on 12/30/14 at 11:12 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
I wonder what the vampire squids at Goldman Sachs are doing...? That would tell us a lot about how this will play out.
I asked that way back in the thread and was told that Goldman is stupider than the OP and doesn't know as much about Russia. Yet another example of the OP's infinite wisdom. I mean, it is highly doubtful that Goldman has a Russian-themed screenname on an LSU sports website, so we can all agree that their credentials in the space are suspect.
Posted on 12/30/14 at 11:20 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Because he's a grandstanding windbag who is full of shite.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 7:19 am to LSURussian
quote:
Five weeks ago the CDS spread was 263 basis points. Today (12/29/14) it is 439 bp.
And today it has shot up to 609 basis points.
LINK
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