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Started By
Message
re: So Jon Ossoff Is Going To Win
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:33 pm to LSUTigersVCURams
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:33 pm to LSUTigersVCURams
quote:
somebody of his background
Not everyone is as antisemitic as the Far Right. And Republicans always wonder why Jews vote overwhelmingly Democratic.
2
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:34 pm to Haughton99
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/29/17 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:36 pm to LuckyTiger
quote:
According to NYT...
This is now the most expensive House race in history.
Ossoff raised $23M, with 95% coming from outside the state of GA. Most donations from CA, NY, and MA.
Handel raised $4M.
That's nuts.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:39 pm to LuckyTiger
quote:
Also, he said there is no unpredictable Trump effect this election. That is, a lot of people voted for Trump because they liked how he talked, how he took on opponents and the media, the idea that he was an outsider going against the establishment. Not the case here. Handel is boring, uncharismatic, and stale. She is a career politician. Ossoff is a political newcomer and has been successfully portrayed as being an independent.
I've got to disagree with him here. Ossoff only missed getting 50% in the primary by a hair and that was with a whole field of Republican candidates, not all of whom were as bad as Handel.
Tom Price won this by a landslide right before Trump picked him for HHS. This is Gingrich's old seat. A VERY conservative district.
But it's an affluent and educated conservative district. It's an extremely conservative district that Trump BARELY won. It's exactly the kind of district that was skeptical of Trump before the election, and now has buyer's remorse.
People on both sides are putting too much pressure on this one seat. A win doesn't guarantee a blue wave and a loss doesn't mean the Republican majority is safe in 2018. Ossoff winning this race doesn't mean all Trump voters are turning on him, but the fact that Trump wasn't as popular here as he was in other conservative districts to begin with, and that he's only gotten more unpopular since, makes it clear that opinions on Trump are absolutely playing a big role in this election.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:39 pm to tarzana
Funny coming from a lib given the wikileaks showing the dnc to be antisemitic
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:39 pm to inelishaitrust
quote:
Ossoff is up by 7 in the most recent poll. I won't say that he'll win, but it's not going to be a result that gives national Republicans any kind of confidence going into midterms.
I know Democrats will try and extrapolate mid-term predictions based on this GA election however I don't believe these types of extrapolations make logical sense even if you are trying to gauge enthusiasm.
The bottom line is, if you have a candidate that is more attractive and more charismatic than the other candidate the more attractive and charismatic candidate will win.
As they say in the NFL, it's all about match-ups. In this particular race the R candidate sucks arse. A slightly better R candidate and the Rs defend this seat easily.
Despite political spin candidates drive enthusiasm and turnout. Politics is much more granular than the generalized comments that will come out from the Democrat side after this race is over projecting that this race is a harbinger of the 2018 midterms. Just ask Hillary.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:39 pm to LuckyTiger
He will win. I was born and raised in the district and this wouldnt surprise me. Not because of trump effect but because Handel is a horrible horrible candidate.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:39 pm to LSUTigersVCURams
quote:
It's just the reorientation of the parties into urban and rural parties. If you look at the demographics of GA06, it would make sense for it to go blue. It is what it is.
Not this fast though. Price won last year by 23%.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:40 pm to HailToTheChiz
Rightwing PACS are spending millions against Ossoff in the ATL media market.
I lived in that district for 27 years. Every elected official there is a Republican. Democrats never get even close there. Clinton vs Trump was an exception.
I do think it will be close, but I find it hard to believe any Democrat could win in that district.
I lived in that district for 27 years. Every elected official there is a Republican. Democrats never get even close there. Clinton vs Trump was an exception.
I do think it will be close, but I find it hard to believe any Democrat could win in that district.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:44 pm to flyAU
Handel is just an awful matchup. She's the epitome of a major problem in Georgia - the "it's his/her turn" candidate.
She's got this core of support in North Fulton, but nobody else finds her smart, experienced, personable, relatable, etc. She's not "bad" I suppose, but she excites absolutely no one and she's running against a dynamic, if ridiculous, opponent.
Assuming Handel loses, the Georgia GOP and FCRP need to tell her enough is enough.
If Ossoff wins I won't be surprised to see him bounced in the next cycle or two, FWIW.
She's got this core of support in North Fulton, but nobody else finds her smart, experienced, personable, relatable, etc. She's not "bad" I suppose, but she excites absolutely no one and she's running against a dynamic, if ridiculous, opponent.
Assuming Handel loses, the Georgia GOP and FCRP need to tell her enough is enough.
If Ossoff wins I won't be surprised to see him bounced in the next cycle or two, FWIW.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:49 pm to GumboPot
quote:
I know Democrats will try and extrapolate mid-term predictions based on this GA election however I don't believe these types of extrapolations make logical sense even if you are trying to gauge enthusiasm.
The bottom line is, if you have a candidate that is more attractive and more charismatic than the other candidate the more attractive and charismatic candidate will win.
I completely agree that a party nominating the wrong candidate can screw their chances in an election (See La Gov.) you also have to take a look at all the special elections that have happened since Trump took office and the left has outperformed the historic norms in all of them so far.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:51 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Assuming Handel loses, the Georgia GOP and FCRP need to tell her enough is enough.
If Ossoff wins I won't be surprised to see him bounced in the next cycle or two, FWIW.
Yep
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:51 pm to Haughton99
quote:
It's crazy to see right wingers write this one off already.
Why? The district almost went to Hillary. Osoff has 5 times more money. Not into thinking are you?
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:52 pm to LuckyTiger
He's 50/50 from what I'm hearing. Lots of votes in Northern Fulton County and East Cobb will determine this election.
In Brookhaven, it's pro Ossof but many of my neighbors are Liberal so that doesn't surprise me.
In Brookhaven, it's pro Ossof but many of my neighbors are Liberal so that doesn't surprise me.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:54 pm to flyAU
Handel isn't my favorite candidate either.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:54 pm to Haughton99
quote:
It's crazy to see right wingers write this one off already. The night of the first election I remember a nearly unanimous cry from this board that the Republican will win easily if it goes to a runoff.
She is not an exciting candidate by any means. You probably are not from here so cant see what we can see.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 3:58 pm to Zach
quote:
Why? The district almost went to Hillary. Osoff has 5 times more money. Not into thinking are you?
And Price won by 20+ in the same election. Lots of nevertrump republicans is what that shows. Spending, by party, on the race is almost equal.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 4:00 pm to flyAU
quote:
She is not an exciting candidate by any means. You probably are not from here so cant see what we can see.
Correct. I just remember the reaction on this board that night when he fell short of 50%. Almost everyone thought his only shot was to get to 50% and avoid a runoff.
Posted on 6/9/17 at 4:01 pm to LuckyTiger
So he may be successful lying that he won't vote 95% of the time with pelosi?
If he actually is a "moderate" he will be about the third one in their caucus.
How he votes is irrelevant. A vote for him is a vote for pelosi. Wonder why he doesn't say that?
If he actually is a "moderate" he will be about the third one in their caucus.
How he votes is irrelevant. A vote for him is a vote for pelosi. Wonder why he doesn't say that?
Posted on 6/9/17 at 4:01 pm to LuckyTiger
quote:
So says a friend of mine who is a successful political consultant that works for Ossoff's campaign.
quote:
I asked him to give me a percentage. He said that he was 99% sure that Ossoff would win.
I'm not saying that Ossoff will lose or if he will win, but if a consult on his campaign doesn't say that he is 100% sure that his candidate will win, something is off.
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