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Started By
Message
Run-off election voters -- Bill Cassidy has this in the bag
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:02 am
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:02 am
What's the percentage of voters who don't vote for the two main candidates in a general election that end up voting for one of the two in the run-off election?
I ask this because if only 10% of the voters who didn't vote for ML or BC yesterday end up voting along the same party lines, combined with the same amount of votes for each candidate in the runoff, BC wins the runoff.
Results would be:
Mary Landrieu (D) - 620,821
Bill Cassidy (R) - 625,398
That's if only 10% of the voters who voted for the other candidates within the same party show up to vote along party lines with every single voter who voted yesterday doing the same in December.
Bill Cassidy's got this in the bag. Surely around 50% of RM's voters alone will show up to vote for BC in December...
If 100% of the other Democrat voters show up to vote for ML in December and 100% of her original voters show up, she's at 638,658.
If only 50% of RM's voters show up to vote for BC along with 100% of BC's original voters do the same, Bill Cassidy is at 703,645.
Mary Landrieu (D) - 638,658
Bill Cassidy (R) - 703,645
This is going to be a Mary Landrieu slaughter. Louisiana voters will practically yell through a megaphone on December 6th.
I ask this because if only 10% of the voters who didn't vote for ML or BC yesterday end up voting along the same party lines, combined with the same amount of votes for each candidate in the runoff, BC wins the runoff.
Results would be:
Mary Landrieu (D) - 620,821
Bill Cassidy (R) - 625,398
That's if only 10% of the voters who voted for the other candidates within the same party show up to vote along party lines with every single voter who voted yesterday doing the same in December.
Bill Cassidy's got this in the bag. Surely around 50% of RM's voters alone will show up to vote for BC in December...
If 100% of the other Democrat voters show up to vote for ML in December and 100% of her original voters show up, she's at 638,658.
If only 50% of RM's voters show up to vote for BC along with 100% of BC's original voters do the same, Bill Cassidy is at 703,645.
Mary Landrieu (D) - 638,658
Bill Cassidy (R) - 703,645
This is going to be a Mary Landrieu slaughter. Louisiana voters will practically yell through a megaphone on December 6th.
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 9:09 am
12
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:04 am to TDsngumbo
i saw numbers showing 90% of maness voters would support cassidy in a run off..
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:07 am to TDsngumbo
it is practically 42-42-14-2
I suspect that that they will both get at-least 42%, but the 14% Maness votes, will go majority to Cassidy, which will put him over the edge. There is no way Mary will get more votes in the run off when she won't gain much from people who didn't vote for either candidate who will vote again. Turnout will also be lower hurting her chances.
Mary's 42% will mostly come from Dems, which will vote the same way again, Cassidy will get over 50%, 42% of revotes, and at-least a 8% boost from Maness. That means only about 1/2 of votes for maness will have to vote for cassidy for him to win that will be easy.
I suspect that that they will both get at-least 42%, but the 14% Maness votes, will go majority to Cassidy, which will put him over the edge. There is no way Mary will get more votes in the run off when she won't gain much from people who didn't vote for either candidate who will vote again. Turnout will also be lower hurting her chances.
Mary's 42% will mostly come from Dems, which will vote the same way again, Cassidy will get over 50%, 42% of revotes, and at-least a 8% boost from Maness. That means only about 1/2 of votes for maness will have to vote for cassidy for him to win that will be easy.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:08 am to Clint Torres
quote:
i saw numbers showing 90% of maness voters would support cassidy in a run off..
based on this alone
Cassidy will get about 53% of the vote, and Landrieu will get 44% maybe as high as 47% or 48% but she won't get more than that. She has to double the dems vote to have a chance.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:14 am to TDsngumbo
Nothing is in the bag. Cassidy needs to make sure he gets his vote out.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:23 am to TDsngumbo
Orleans/EBR won't show up in the numbers needed in the Runoff for Landrieu and her fundraising just got sucked up a hoover vacuum cleaner and it was emptied out in Cassidy's pocket this morning. Landrieu is officially finished.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:24 am to TDsngumbo
I don't think this is really in dispute at this point.
I suppose Cassidy can do something stupid, but it looks like both parties are going to pour money into this race.
I suppose Cassidy can do something stupid, but it looks like both parties are going to pour money into this race.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:24 am to TDsngumbo
The big concern in the runoff is voter turnout. The Republicans need to realize it's not over and have to continue to fight. You know the Landrieu campaign is going to come out swinging. Hell, they already did last night. There will also be some voter fatigue by the time 12/6 rolls around. The commercials always wear some people down to the point that they just don't give a shite anymore. Don't go to sleep just yet on this race.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:27 am to TDsngumbo
OP - I think you need to look at her past election results, especially comparing the change in votes between general and run-off. You may be surprised.
Yep. You're right. Cassidy will easily win. Dec. 6th sounds like a good day to go deer hunting, then come home and hopefully watch LSU in the SEC CG, doesn't it?
quote:
Bill Cassidy's got this in the bag.
Yep. You're right. Cassidy will easily win. Dec. 6th sounds like a good day to go deer hunting, then come home and hopefully watch LSU in the SEC CG, doesn't it?
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:32 am to TDsngumbo
This isn't in the bag by any way, shape or form.
Do not underestimate the Landrieu GOTV machine.
Cassidy needs to hit the ground running and EARN every vote and not take them for granted.
Do not underestimate the Landrieu GOTV machine.
Cassidy needs to hit the ground running and EARN every vote and not take them for granted.
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 9:33 am
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:35 am to Jimbeaux28
Mary is holding a bombshell until mid Nov. Just have a bad feeling about this
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:01 am to Jimbeaux28
Not to mention that a big part of his support, and the anti-Mary sentiment, was really about control of the Senate. Now that the R's control the Senate, some of Cassidy voters who were really just anti-Harry Reid voters, may take a second look at Cassidy and wonder if he would really be better than Landrieu.
He's very stiff and not a very effective communicator, and that pugnacious, mendacious sophist we have had as Senator for the past 18 years is a least a decent orator.
He's very stiff and not a very effective communicator, and that pugnacious, mendacious sophist we have had as Senator for the past 18 years is a least a decent orator.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:03 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
Dec. 6th sounds like a good day to go deer hunting, then come home and hopefully watch LSU in the SEC CG, doesn't it?
Well shite, I didn't realize that was the day of the SEC CG.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:10 am to udtiger
quote:
Nothing is in the bag. Cassidy needs to make sure he gets his vote out.
this
Ill bet Cassidy gets at least 85% of the Maness votes- there all Tea Party/NRA people.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:10 am to TDsngumbo
Turn out on both sides will be lower because there are no other issues on the ballot. Another factor is money. The national parties are not going to pour money into the one month of campaigning because the Senate is not in play.
Mary's insistence on 5 debates in one month indicates that she has financial problems. Because the debates cost her nothing at all.
Mary's insistence on 5 debates in one month indicates that she has financial problems. Because the debates cost her nothing at all.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:40 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
She has to double the dems vote to have a chance.
Dems can do some wild things especially in a place like New Orleans. The graveyard may have a polling place.
Also, if Republicans think it is in the bag they might not show up like they did this time. Everyone needs to vote.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:50 am to Zach
quote:
national parties are not going to pour money into the one month of campaigning because the Senate is not in play
I disagree.
I suspect the NRSC will get $$$ to Cassidy to pad the total.
Remember, 2016 will be the Dems best chance to retake the Senate and the more GOP senators there are going in, the narrower that chance becomes.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:58 am to udtiger
quote:
I disagree. I suspect the NRSC will get $$$ to Cassidy to pad the total. Remember, 2016 will be the Dems best chance to retake the Senate and the more GOP senators there are going in, the narrower that chance becomes.
I was thinking more of the Dems not wanting to give Landrieu money.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:59 am to TDsngumbo
Cassidy 56
Landreiu 44
Landreiu 44
Posted on 11/5/14 at 11:06 am to udtiger
quote:
Nothing is in the bag. Cassidy needs to make sure he gets his vote out.
This. I think Mary has gotten most of the votes she is going to get. Those who voted for the third place finisher will more than likely vote for Cassidy. That said, Cassidy should not "assume" anything and will need to keep his ground game going to finish this thing.
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