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re: Just a reminder: Turkey has nukes
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:14 pm to upgrayedd
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:14 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
I guess I'm going with the assumption that ISIS is the leading priority.
If only. That's a safe assumption for the US, but each individual actor from the Gulf States to Turkey to Russia to Iran all have different aims. How they feel about those aims affects how they feel about ISIS. I mean, the Iranian trained militias have been consistently fighting ISIS, but it wouldn't be true to say that the US is on the same side as those militias. In fact the rise of those militias is one of the reasons why the Gulf States are especially worried.
2
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:15 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
If only. That's a safe assumption for the US, but each individual actor from the Gulf States to Turkey to Russia to Iran all have different aims. How they feel about those aims affects how they feel about ISIS. I mean, the Iranian trained militias have been consistently fighting ISIS, but it wouldn't be true to say that the US is on the same side as those militias. In fact the rise of those militias is one of the reasons why the Gulf States are especially worried.
This is a gloriously great assessment bro.
Keep preaching man. The board needs this.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:16 pm to Mud_Till_May
quote:
The Middle East is on fire
They have been fighting long before we came along and will continue fighting long after. They are incestuous,barbarians and will never adapt in our lifetime. frick the Middle East.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:17 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
If only. That's a safe assumption for the US, but each individual actor from the Gulf States to Turkey to Russia to Iran all have different aims. How they feel about those aims affects how they feel about ISIS. I mean, the Iranian trained militias have been consistently fighting ISIS, but it wouldn't be true to say that the US is on the same side as those militias. In fact the rise of those militias is one of the reasons why the Gulf States are especially worried.
So how does Russia justify immediately attacking the Kurds who are engaging ISIS?
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:19 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
No it won't. Russia has more Muslims than the rest of Europe combined. Russian intellectuals (See Gugin) have also suggested that the Moscow-Tehran Axis is the key alliance in thwarting Atlantic regimes. 3 of Russia's closest allies (Iran, Syria and India) have lots of Muslims, with Iran and Syria being Muslim-majority countries, while India has more than 170 million Muslims.
As soon as big 3-4 start becoming energy independent, those frickers will get blown to kingdom come.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:25 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
So how does Russia justify immediately attacking the Kurds who are engaging ISIS?
It doesn't have to be a direct attack. Perhaps the Turks want to share intel, or want access to something else. What's most likely is that the Turks want the Russians to look the other way, but even then it's unclear what the Turks want to do with Euphrates Shield. Honestly Turkey is the wildcard in all this. They were giving material support to the FSA for a while, buying oil from ISIS for a while, and now they are talking about moving their borders past the ones accepted at the Treaty of Lausanne. Erdogan is more of a Neo-Ottoman than a radical Islamist, and at some point, I think he might say that no terrorism existed under the Ottoman Empire, and use that to justify regaining territory he feels entitled to. That is an unlikely scenario, but it also feels a possible conclusion given Erdogan's rhetoric thus far.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:28 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
So how does Russia justify immediately attacking the Kurds who are engaging ISIS?
I know that in at least one incident the Kurds crossed a line that the Syrian government asked them not to cross, and the syriansl gov bombed them "lightly" to make a point that they still exercise control over that terrain. I don't remember if there were any KIA from it. I don't believe there were.
The Russians have bombed US backed rebels, a declared and coordinated US base, ISIL (rarely), and kurds who have tried to move in on territory the Syrians want in the post conflict world. They are backing Syria and Asaad all the way, and haven't really given a shite about anything else.
Turkey mainly focuses on keeping their own kurds in line (there are millions on Turkey) by preventing the SDF (composed of mostly kurds), the PKK, and the YPG and YPJ (Many of whom are in the SDF... for now) from gaining too much momentum. When the US went all in on the SDF /YPG, the turks were forced to accommodate their operations that were clearly counter ISIL in nature. That means the Turks and the SDF have sat down and worked out several Joint operations to defeat ISIL controlled areas south of Kobani. That Alliance will end in a heartbeat when the Syrian regime gets a little bit firmer hold on the situation in the north. There is nothing the US can offer to Turkey to stop them from countering the possibility of a united Kurdish movement on southern Turkey.
Turkey is also making a play for Mosul and Tal Afar (huge Iraqi turkoman population there, including the now dead ISIL #2, Haji Iman). In 2007, the turks went all the way down to the edge of Ninawa province to attack Kurds tied with PKK terrorist attacks (reportedly). They have said on numerous occasions that they would like to participate in Mosul, and they honestly see Northern iraq as a possible conquest considering that it belongs first to iraqi Kurdistan then to Iranian controlled baghdad.
This post was edited on 12/19/16 at 10:30 pm
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:31 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Erdogan is more of a Neo-Ottoman than a radical Islamist, and at some point, I think he might say that no terrorism existed under the Ottoman Empire, and use that to justify regaining territory he feels entitled to. That is an unlikely scenario, but it also feels a possible conclusion given Erdogan's rhetoric thus far.
Exactly. exactly. exactly.
If policy makers would realize this we could actually catch up to what is happening.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:36 pm to MrCarton
You baws know what's up 
I've been really into the Ukraine situation lately and it has given me some real insight as to how the Russians operate.
I've been really into the Ukraine situation lately and it has given me some real insight as to how the Russians operate.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:39 pm to MrCarton
quote:
If policy makers would realize this we could actually catch up to what is happening.
Our policy makers have no clue who is on what side, much lees which group actually serves our interest the best, it actually is kind of embarrassing.
There was a decent balance of power in the region that we destroyed by siding with the Wahabist and leaving the Shia (Iran) out in the cold, the bill for this is about to come due.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:40 pm to Oyster
quote:
India's Muslim population is about 13%. Hardly a large segment of the population.
It's a huge number when you consider it's 13% of a billion
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:41 pm to Mud_Till_May
quote:
turkey is part of the European Union just like Germany. If someone invades them they have the Europeans in their back pocket. So yes there is access. The reason the Turkish where let into the union was because it's a buffer to the Middle East.
The ambassador being killed today is a very worrisome thing. When politicians start getting killed wars tend to get started.
Turkey is not in the EU
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:42 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
I've been really into the Ukraine situation lately and it has given me some real insight as to how the Russians operate.
Ukraine was a Russian unconventional warfare master stroke. So was Georgia. Not that I endorse Russia, just calling a spade a spade.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:45 pm to MrCarton
quote:
Ukraine was a Russian unconventional warfare master stroke. So was Georgia. Not that I endorse Russia, just calling a spade a spade.
I totally agree. I know the Baltic States are waiting for their Ukraine situation as well.
Vice has an great series on the first year of the conflict. The amount of propaganda from Russia is a total mind-blower.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:48 pm to cave canem
quote:
Our policy makers have no clue who is on what side, much lees which group actually serves our interest the best, it actually is kind of embarrassing.
It's infuriating. Believe me, the government doesn't give a shite who is on what side, they came into this shite show with a plan to "do something" and anyone who says that we should pull back is castigated. Everyone that matters is trying to get promoted, that's all this is.
quote:
There was a decent balance of power in the region that we destroyed by siding with the Wahabist and leaving the Shia (Iran) out in the cold, the bill for this is about to come due.
It's insane how badly the US fricked this up. I couldn't write a book about it because people would find it unrealistic.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:50 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
Vice has an great series on the first year of the conflict. The amount of propaganda from Russia is a total mind-blower.
They are masters of that shite man. they have a ton of advantages in Ukraine and Georgia, but regardless of those, they executed amazingly well. again... not an endorsement
Posted on 12/19/16 at 10:56 pm to MrCarton
quote:
They are masters of that shite man. they have a ton of advantages in Ukraine and Georgia, but regardless of those, they executed amazingly well. again... not an endorsement
There was a particular scene that I remember from the doc. One of the journalists was asking people in a bread line (inside Donbass) where the aid was coming from. All the people in line were saying it was from Russia and they were so grateful to Russia for providing it. The crew goes back to the storage area and all the boxes have EU flags on them.
ETA: it's also fascinating to see all the people the conflict has attracted. Chechens, Cossacks, Communists, etc.
This post was edited on 12/19/16 at 11:00 pm
Posted on 12/20/16 at 3:27 am to upgrayedd
quote:
Worked with a guy that was stationed there in the 70's/80's. He said there were some key tunnels that connected Turkey with USSR
My dad was stationed in turkey from 1970-1972. He and several others were in a command bunker behind a 5 megaton door. if the call had ever come on they would have bee the ones to press the button.
They had to have an armed escort anytime they left the base and could only be gone a few hours at a time.
Posted on 12/20/16 at 4:19 am to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Say what you want about Putin, but that guy would kill every Muslim alive to preserve his culture and wouldn't lose a second of sleep over it.
I share that sentiment. I am proud of my culture and will never participate in its extinction just to avoid hurting someones presumed 'feelings.'
Posted on 12/20/16 at 5:36 am to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Say what you want about Putin, but that guy would kill every Muslim alive to preserve his culture and wouldn't lose a second of sleep over
We need this mentality here desperately.
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