re: Iraq in downward spiral; Who will Obama blame?

This analysis from the Brookings Institute - lessons learned & unintended consequences. I think it was Mubarek who told Bush that invading Iraq would create a hundred Bin Ladens.

quote:

---

Lesson number one of foreign policy in the 21st century ought to be: Allow no states to fail, ungoverned spaces to emerge, terrorist safe havens to be established. But that is easier said than done. Avoiding the current mess would have required a different prime minister than the Shiite Nouri al-Maliki, who has missed every opportunity to govern inclusively and address the grievances of the country’s Sunni and Kurdish minorities.

Even with Maliki, Iraq might have limped along for a time, but the Syrian civil war hastened the crisis. The radicalization among Syaria’s Sunni Muslims, stoked by conflict and supporters in the Persian Gulf, who see in the possible fall of the Iranian-backed regime of Bashar Assad payback for the Shia ascension in Iraq, has nourished monsters — al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL, which toppled Mosul and is, amazingly, too extreme even for al Qaeda’s leaders in Pakistan.

It is worth remembering that both groups were born in Iraq, spawned by the rebellion against the US occupation. The irony that Tikrit, Saddam Hussein’s home town, is now under the control of jihadis, verges on inexpressible. George W. Bush and team toppled Saddam to break a non-existent alliance with al Qaeda, though Saddam was precisely the kind of secular Arab despot that Osama bin Laden despised. Now, where once there were no jihadis, al Qaeda’s offspring sweep all before them.

---

LINK

quote:

---

You are clearly more knowledgeable about this issue than me (and post other PT posters). I hope you are right and there is still a chance for success and that there are some leaders willing to make tough choices...the people of Iraq and our vets deserve it.

---

You have to look at it from several angles:

1. They've only taken maybe 20% or so demography of the country (probably even less with a half-million refugees from Mosul)
2. They have yet to do anything at all away from their "home field" (heavily Sunni areas). They haven't even attempted it yet. They're talking bluster about taking Najaf and Karbala, but that's a very tall order. As they push further south, they'll start running into Shi'a militias that are much bigger than they are and that have been armed, trained, and guided by the Iranians for over a decade now.
3. I've seen credible estimates of a 10,000 - 15,000 man force. That isn't even close enough to actually hold what they've taken. In addition to that, their logistics trains are going to soon be imperiled.
4. They seized the initiative early, and when that happens in war, it's like lightning (Germany in 1940 as an example). They've caught the IA and government with their pants down, but these guys will eventually get their crap together, dig in, and start fighting back. It's an existential fight for them now. The ISIS were already beaten back at Samarra and have already lost Tikrit.
5. Iraqis - Sunni or Shi'a - aren't particular fond of Shari'a law. They like their cigarettes and their occasional sips of booze and their Lebanese pop music and their soccer and satellite television from Dubai. This isn't Afghanistan. They're also, for the most part, literate. Remnants AQI under Zarqawi form the core of this group - they overplayed their hand severely (in their brutality and Islamic justice) in western and north-central Iraq in 2006/2007. They got forced out and then had their arses kicked because of what they were doing.
6. The Kurds are starting to step into the game with Kirkuk, and the Pesh are absolutely no one to mess with. The ISIS haven't even attempted it yet. I expect to see a brokered deal with more favorable conditions for the Iraqi government to the Kurds soon, and they'll step into Mosul and Tal Afar and maybe some others

By no means is this a good situation, and the Iraqi government has shown very poorly so far, but there are a lot of factors still very much in their favor.

Nice post.

The more I'm reading about it, the less concerned I'm becoming.

It's still a tremendously shitty situation, but at first I thought Baghdad was falling within the month.

Thanks for the background info and analysis

TX Tiger will tell you the touching story you read was all simply propaganda from the elite to pacify the sheeple and trick them into accepting the status quo.

And at the [not mine] pettiness.

quote:

---

Nice post.

The more I'm reading about it, the less concerned I'm becoming.

It's still a tremendously shitty situation, but at first I thought Baghdad was falling within the month.

Thanks for the background info and analysis

---

I'll also add - the funneling of resources and manpower into northwestern and western Iraq has probably drained the resources of ISIS as they have concentrated on this blitzkrieg. If I were Assad in Syria, I'd attack with a swiftness right now, as ISIS are probably vulnerable in northern and eastern Syria. I expect to see it within the next few days, and ISIS will be fighting a two front war with relatively limited resources soon. Now there are obviously other Sunni insurgent groups willing to take the fight in Syria, but ISIS is one of the backbones.

They aren't able to hold cities at all at the moment - I mean, shoot, Quds was able to take back Tikrit with only two battalions (probably roughly 1,000 soldiers). That tells me they aren't leaving strong occupational forces.

quote:

---

No we didn't



I'm not going to argue about why we went over there.

---

Then why is this a reply to my post?

quote:

---

Maybe it was about Saddam.

---

It's about money. It's always about money.

quote:

---

All I know is that there were amazing stories of success in that region.

---

Wonderful. I'm glad something good came of it. But don't pretend for one second that this somehow excuses the massacre and displacement of countless men, women and children over there.

quote:

---

I mean, shoot, Quds was able to take back Tikrit

---

quote:

---

AbuTheMonkey

---

Knows his shite

quote:

---

Overthrowing the Saddam regime wasn't the mistake. The mistake was disbanding the Iraqi army and government after the invasion. We should have helped them rebuild the country instead of trying to do it ourselves. That is Bush's fault.

---

This

quote:

---

You have fun kicking in doors. I'll just call in the airstrikes.

---

Airstrikes in town make my arse pucker up!