re: If reagan and clinton could run again in their home states, would they win?

quote:

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Arkansas has changed ideologically but not demographically. Therefore, if you adjust your ideology, you can win.

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arkansas has changed demographically it's gotten whiter

Republicans have long held strength in the state’s conservative metropolitan areas, which have experienced explosive population growth over the last decade. In contrast with Florida, Virginia or North Carolina, in Arkansas the growing metropolitan counties are not attracting a significant number of Democratic-leaning, nonwhite, non-Southern or young voters. Instead, they are attracting new Republicans, who could overwhelm the traditionally Democratic countryside — if Democrats ever won back those voters.

But these areas are nothing like Raleigh, and they’re mainly attracting white migrants from elsewhere in the South. As a result, none of these counties have moved toward the Democrats. President Obama fared worse there in 2012 than either John Kerry or Al Gore.

Making matters more challenging for Democrats is that the rural, Democratic-leaning parts of the state have suffered significant population losses over the last decade. The biggest declines have been in the most heavily Democratic majority-black counties along the Mississippi River.

from the new york times

i know for a fact that bill clinton doesn't think he'd win arkansas today the demographics and the fact that the democrat party nationally has moved so far left.