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Message
Fast forward to 2037 and try to imagine where people fit into the economy.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:05 pm
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:05 pm
Twenty years is not that far into the future but we all know what is coming over the horizon.
Automation/robotics coupled with AI are going to be supplanting humans in many sectors of the economy. How long before investment banks and other financial institutions no longer need financial planners and investment bankers? We already have a stock market that can run nearly autonomously with the use of algorithms.
Manufacturing/industrial jobs will continue to decline as will other mundane labor jobs. How long before software engineers and code gurus become obsolete when all we have to do is talk to a self aware computer and tell the computer what task or idea we have dreamed up and the computer writes the program/code for any conceivable application?
It's coming, we're going to have more and more people with limited prospects for employment dependent on a government for their basic needs, all sitting around with plenty of time to make mischief.
But I guess in the mean time we can allow a few more million low skilled workers into the country just to make sure we have enough people to clean our houses and hotels, cut our lawns, asphalt our roads, build our houses, etc.
It's going to be very interesting to see how the government maintains civility when 40-50% of the populace is twiddling their thumbs.
Wait, maybe Nancy Pelosi was right! Since job lock will be a thing of the past we'll probably see a renaissance in great music, art, literature and more craft beer...., ya know, I think everything is going to be alright.
Automation/robotics coupled with AI are going to be supplanting humans in many sectors of the economy. How long before investment banks and other financial institutions no longer need financial planners and investment bankers? We already have a stock market that can run nearly autonomously with the use of algorithms.
Manufacturing/industrial jobs will continue to decline as will other mundane labor jobs. How long before software engineers and code gurus become obsolete when all we have to do is talk to a self aware computer and tell the computer what task or idea we have dreamed up and the computer writes the program/code for any conceivable application?
It's coming, we're going to have more and more people with limited prospects for employment dependent on a government for their basic needs, all sitting around with plenty of time to make mischief.
But I guess in the mean time we can allow a few more million low skilled workers into the country just to make sure we have enough people to clean our houses and hotels, cut our lawns, asphalt our roads, build our houses, etc.
It's going to be very interesting to see how the government maintains civility when 40-50% of the populace is twiddling their thumbs.
Wait, maybe Nancy Pelosi was right! Since job lock will be a thing of the past we'll probably see a renaissance in great music, art, literature and more craft beer...., ya know, I think everything is going to be alright.
10
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:08 pm to Bass Tiger
Universal basic income. As crappy of a concept it may be, it's probably the only way to ensure non exceptional people will be able to eat.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:23 pm to Bass Tiger
Are Operators safe?
Asking for a friend.
Asking for a friend.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:25 pm to Bass Tiger
I work in automation.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:30 pm to AggieDub14
quote:
Universal basic income. As crappy of a concept it may be, it's probably the only way to ensure non exceptional people will be able to eat.
How long before society is made up just two classes, a wealthy elite class and the rest? Do we transition to Elysium?
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:36 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
How long before software engineers and code gurus become obsolete when all we have to do is talk to a self aware computer and tell the computer what task or idea we have dreamed up and the computer writes the program/code for any conceivable application?
Professions that require abstract and/or creative thinking will be the last to be replaced by machine intelligence.
I would posit that a profession such as, say, physicians, would be far more likely to be "replaced" in the next 20 or so years than software engineers and computer scientists.
The primary difficulty in medical school, for example, isn't necessarily the actual information itself, but rather the volume of information you're expected to know for each exam - yet a graduating medical student will retain around 10% or less of this information. The entire profession is based on tapping into knowledge reserves and formulating a specific algorithm of treatment, which is the exact kind of functionality in which computers excel.
Within 20 years, I'm assuming you'll see Watson like AI systems in major regional medical centers, which handle the bulk of processing diagnostic information based on scans, labs, HPI, medical history, etc, and will be able to rapidly produce treatment modalities, including prescriptions, procedures, or admittance to a specific unit.
Physicians will simply oversee this process, and aid in general care of the patient - with much of the significance of their role being greatly reduced.
That would be a fairly realistic scenario within about 20 years - although I think in your post you're referring to a truly sentient AI, which I imagine would be much more than 20 years away.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:37 pm to Cs
quote:
quote:
How long before software engineers and code gurus become obsolete when all we have to do is talk to a self aware computer and tell the computer what task or idea we have dreamed up and the computer writes the program/code for any conceivable application?
Professions that require abstract and/or creative thinking will be the last to be replaced by machine intelligence.
I would posit that a profession such as, say, physicians, would be far more likely to be "replaced" in the next 20 or so years than software engineers and computer scientists.
The primary difficulty in medical school, for example, isn't necessarily the actual information itself, but rather the volume of information you're expected to know for each exam - yet a graduating medical student will retain around 10% or less of this information. The entire profession is based on tapping into knowledge reserves and formulating a specific algorithm of treatment, which is the exact kind of functionality in which computers excel.
Within 20 years, I'm assuming you'll see Watson like AI systems in major regional medical centers, which handle the bulk of processing diagnostic information based on scans, labs, HPI, medical history, etc, and will be able to rapidly produce treatment modalities, including prescriptions, procedures, or admittance to a specific unit.
Physicians will simply oversee this process, and aid in general care of the patient - with much of the significance of their role being greatly reduced.
That would be a fairly realistic scenario within about 20 years - although I think in your post you're referring to a truly sentient AI, which I imagine would be much more than 20 years away.
who/what's giving me the prostate exam is all i really need to know ...
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:45 pm to Bass Tiger
You are overthinking this.
What good is production of a good/service in a capitalist system if nobody can buy it?
Also, artificial intelligence is nothing more than a lightning fast calculator. They lack the ability to have free though or opinions. Hence why they will never be judges or juries.
People will always have a place.
What good is production of a good/service in a capitalist system if nobody can buy it?
Also, artificial intelligence is nothing more than a lightning fast calculator. They lack the ability to have free though or opinions. Hence why they will never be judges or juries.
People will always have a place.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 7:46 pm to Cs
quote:
Physicians will simply oversee this process, and aid in general care of the patient - with much of the significance of their role being greatly reduced.
That would be a fairly realistic scenario within about 20 years - although I think in your post you're referring to a truly sentient AI, which I imagine would be much more than 20 years away.
Probably true regarding the medical profession, robots have been performing surgery for 15-20 yrs. Not sure about AI, I know we're not quite seeing a Moore's Law type advance in computer capabilities but things could really take off quickly with a few new discoveries.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:00 pm to Bass Tiger
I'm going to tell the AI to eliminate all non essential humans from the planet.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:02 pm to Mr.Perfect
quote:
Also, artificial intelligence is nothing more than a lightning fast calculator. They lack the ability to have free though or opinions. Hence why they will never be judges or juries.
I think you are conflating virtual intelligence with artificial intelligence. The very purpose of AI is to be a created consciousness that, were one not aware of what it was, could pass for a fellow sentient being - and one much more capable than you.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:03 pm to Bass Tiger
This shite isn't happening in 20 years
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:23 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I'm going to tell the AI to eliminate all non essential humans from the planet.
We're all gone baw!
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:26 pm to gthog61
This shite isn't happening in 20 years
Which shite? AI or a large portion of the populace not contributing directly to the economy?
Which shite? AI or a large portion of the populace not contributing directly to the economy?
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:32 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
robots have been performing surgery for 15-20 yrs
Lol, I assure you that there is a human surgeon operating those robots
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:36 pm to Bass Tiger
Had a talk today with an old college buddy about millennials and how they don't get the value of work ethic, patience, humility, experience, and self-starting. It will be a first-class cluster frick when these people hit 40. If your kids possess these values, be sure to impress upon them how precious they are. They will be priceless in a few years.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:40 pm to HempHead
quote:
I think you are conflating virtual intelligence with artificial intelligence. The very purpose of AI is to be a created consciousness that, were one not aware of what it was, could pass for a fellow sentient being - and one much more capable than you.
I think most of us agree that there will come a time when a computer attains a level of awareness coupled with a nearly unimaginable level of processing capabilities where the programmer/code engineer will be unnecessary to develop most applications.
Will it be 20 yrs? Probably not but most technology advances occur with a few breakthroughs and advances happen very quickly and super computers are assisting with those breakthroughs. I think in the not too distant future there will be a verbal Q/A session with a AI capable computer and that Q/A session will allow the computer to produce the desired software applications along with other complex solutions.
This post was edited on 2/27/17 at 8:42 pm
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:41 pm to Bass Tiger
There is so much denial whenever these threads are posted. My company has entire warehouses where robots pick orders, wrap pallets, stage them and load them onto trucks with no human help. And we're not what I'd call a tech savvy company.
The robots are coming. Self driving vehicles are coming. AI is coming.
There won't be enough jobs for everyone. Accept this as reality. This should be the basis of your political philosophy. The paradigm of liberal/conservative/libertarian/statist is gonna get flipped within a generation.
99% percent of the people reading this board will not be in the "elite". Sorry to burst your bubble
The robots are coming. Self driving vehicles are coming. AI is coming.
There won't be enough jobs for everyone. Accept this as reality. This should be the basis of your political philosophy. The paradigm of liberal/conservative/libertarian/statist is gonna get flipped within a generation.
99% percent of the people reading this board will not be in the "elite". Sorry to burst your bubble
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:41 pm to Bass Tiger
Sweet baby jesus just think of the porn applications of this...
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:44 pm to dpd901
quote:
99% percent of the people reading this board will not be in the "elite". Sorry to burst your bubble
I aint skeered, I got my bug out in order.
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