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Does anyone dispute that ACA is in a death spiral?

Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:02 am
Posted by BigJim
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2010
14491 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:02 am
That seems like the first point to be discussed when considering a new plan:

Is the current plan failing?

If so, why?

What does the new plan do to fix that?
Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:03 am to
even hardcore dems knows its failing its just how to replace it surgically so that millions dont automatically lose coverage is hard to figure out.
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:17 am to
I haven't seen any evidence it is failing. Enrollment has increased each year on the marketplace, most of the states that expanded Medicaid are seeing positive results from it, the rate of premium increases across the board has slowed.

Sure, there are still some problems with it, but I've seen little to support it being in a death spiral.
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
140352 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:19 am to
quote:

the rate of premium increases across the board has slowed


What percentage of that is due to the rapid increase in deductible amounts?

Cost shifting my man. The bucket has to be dumped out. I don't care when you fill up the bucket but it must be dumped out to cover claims and admin costs.

There's also plenty of evidence that's failing. Companies getting out of the market. Others raising rates to offset previous losses and to keep from losing more. Smaller networks/less choice for the consumer.
This post was edited on 3/7/17 at 11:21 am
Posted by 4LSU2
Member since Dec 2009
37321 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:20 am to
I'm pretty sure Nancy Pelosi would disagree with you.
Posted by Oyster
North Shore
Member since Feb 2009
10224 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:20 am to
It's failing because it was designed to fail. Trump win threw a wrench into the plan.
Posted by BigJim
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2010
14491 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:20 am to
quote:

I haven't seen any evidence it is failing. Enrollment has increased each year on the marketplace, most of the states that expanded Medicaid are seeing positive results from it, the rate of premium increases across the board has slowed.

Sure, there are still some problems with it, but I've seen little to support it being in a death spiral.


The death spiral refers to the massive uncovered losses causing insurers to withdraw from the market exchanges.

Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19691 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:20 am to
quote:

Sure, there are still some problems with it, but I've seen little to support it being in a death spiral.
how many more major carriers have to abandon it before you would say it's in a death spiral?
Posted by DisplacedBuckeye
Member since Dec 2013
71550 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:20 am to
quote:

I haven't seen any evidence it is failing.


That's because you aren't looking for it.
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:25 am to
quote:

Does anyone dispute that ACA is in a death spiral?


I don't know about death spiral but it has some really big issues. And the EO earlier this year will make it worse.

quote:

Is the current plan failing?


There are underlying problems in the healthcare market. There are major disincentives to keep costs low.

quote:

What does the new plan do to fix that?


Absolutely fricking nothing. Its obamacare lite, keeps all the problems (including the preexisting condition issue).
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19691 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Absolutely fricking nothing. Its obamacare lite, keeps all the problems (including the preexisting condition issue).



it's not really. I don't know that it's any better, but it's not the same thing
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:30 am to
quote:

What percentage of that is due to the rapid increase in deductible amounts?



I don't know, and increased deductibles is absolutely one of the problems that need to be addressed. Dems were idiots for ignoring that aspect. Having health insurance you're afraid to use because the deductible is so high is useless.
Posted by 9th life
birmingham
Member since Sep 2009
7310 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:31 am to
I don't dispute it. I'll be the first to admit I am incredibly unknowledgeable about the nuances of insurance coverage. I will say this board is the only place I have consistently read about the certainty of its demise.

I have zero issue paying more for health insurance if it means someone who is not as fortunate will get coverage.
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
140352 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:32 am to
It's what folks like BamaATL always ignore when touting ACA.

You are on the right track though.

Perhaps inside the 10k plus page ACA there are parts that deal with the actual biggest part of health care costs but I haven't seen it.
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11585 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:32 am to
quote:

how many more major carriers have to abandon it before you would say it's in a death spiral?


In my area, we're down to Ambetter (which just about no one takes) and some third-rate BCBS plans that also have a smaller in-network list than their other offerings. And of course, only one of my doctors takes either.
Posted by Erin Go Bragh
Beyond the Pale
Member since Dec 2007
14916 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:34 am to
quote:

Having health insurance you're afraid to use because the deductible is so high is useless.

This x 1000

People need health insurance they can use and instead they're provided with insurance that only kicks in when a catastrophe occurs in their life.
This post was edited on 3/7/17 at 11:35 am
Posted by MSMHater
Houston
Member since Oct 2008
22774 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:35 am to
quote:

I have zero issue paying more for health insurance if it means someone who is not as fortunate will get coverage.


Do you mean "less fortunate" as in makes less money?

Or "less fortunate" as in a BMI of 44, and diagnoses of hypertension and diabetes?

B/c the latter is who you're paying for far more than the former. I'm fine helping "needy" people. Don't feel the same about subsidizing bad choices.
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
140352 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:37 am to
quote:

I have zero issue paying more for health insurance if it means someone who is not as fortunate will get coverage.


You don't need to wait for fed gov to take your money and redistribute it. Take some initiative.
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:37 am to
quote:

it's not really. I don't know that it's any better, but it's not the same thing


What are the key differences you see between the two bills?

I see
* 30% surcharge for interrupted coverage vs. individual mandate - this will run into the same issue as the mandate, it will be cheaper to sign up after you get sick
* refundable tax credits vs. subsidies - They are basically the same thing.
* Medicaid - it does change the way medicaid is distributed and should shrink enrollees, but won't address spiraling medicaid costs.
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:39 am to
quote:

People need health insurance they can use and instead they're provided with insurance that only kicks in when a catastrophe occurs in their life.


the end solution is going to be single payer. Its the only solution that will provide useful healthcare to all.
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