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Why do managers insist on having a certain closer
Posted on 8/3/08 at 3:50 pm
Posted on 8/3/08 at 3:50 pm
When he is clearly the third or fourth best member of the bullpen? You get no benefit by designating one guy to pitch the 9th rather than just pitching whichever one of your good pitchers is fresh. Tampa just lost a game because Maddon put Percival in the 9th because hey, he's the "closer". 
edit: And for that matter, saves are retarded. Francisco Rodriguez is on pace for a career low in K's, a career high in BB's, nearly a career high WHIP, an ERA above his career average, and a career high FIP, but the media treats him like a God because he has managed to pitch one good inning a bunch of times with up to a 3 run lead. He's not better than Nathan, Rivera, Papelbon, or Soria.
edit: And for that matter, saves are retarded. Francisco Rodriguez is on pace for a career low in K's, a career high in BB's, nearly a career high WHIP, an ERA above his career average, and a career high FIP, but the media treats him like a God because he has managed to pitch one good inning a bunch of times with up to a 3 run lead. He's not better than Nathan, Rivera, Papelbon, or Soria.
This post was edited on 8/3/08 at 3:56 pm
5
Posted on 8/3/08 at 3:56 pm to someoldhussy
quote:You got me.
Why do managers insist on having a certain closer when he is clearly the third or fourth best member of the bullpen?
Signed,
Todd Jones (who was mercifully removed earlier this week)
Posted on 8/3/08 at 4:03 pm to someoldhussy
quote:
Francisco Rodriguez is on pace for a career low in K's, a career high in BB's, nearly a career high WHIP, an ERA above his career average, and a career high FIP, but the media treats him like a God because he has managed to pitch one good inning a bunch of times with up to a 3 run lead.
this isnt fantasy baseball dude
krod gets them good innings when it matters.
fantasy =/= reality
Posted on 8/3/08 at 4:06 pm to Ron Mexico
Nice response Mexico!! Doesn't necessarily matter how KROD does it, as long as he does it!
Posted on 8/3/08 at 4:21 pm to DEANintheYAY
The Rays are about to come back in extras to win, but the point stands.
Exactly, it isn't fantasy, saves are ridiculously arbitrary.
LINK
Exactly, it isn't fantasy, saves are ridiculously arbitrary.
LINK
Posted on 8/3/08 at 4:23 pm to someoldhussy
quote:
Exactly, it isn't fantasy, saves are ridiculously arbitrary.
contradicting yourself
you say that it isnt fantasy, yet you just dropped all kinds of fantasy stats. who cares if he is having a below par year statisticaly, he is getting outs when others might not be.
and percival is the best guy in their pen, of course you pitch him last
maybe balfour might be better, but percival has the experience and has been pretty good so far this year dude. its just 1/162
Posted on 8/3/08 at 4:49 pm to someoldhussy
i've wondered the same thing. A lot of times, the "setup" guy that comes in in the 8th, pitches great, 3 up and 3 down, owning the opposition. Then, just because its the ninth, the closer comes in. Dont know if he's on his game or not, then winds up giving the game away
Posted on 8/3/08 at 5:19 pm to someoldhussy
The save is a ridiculous stat. More than anything, it dictates usage, instead of measuring anything meaningful.
It's because a save is so worthless that it is the correct strategy to use your 3rd or 4th reliever as "the closer" while you use your actual best reliever in high leverage situations when the game is truly at stake in the 7th or 8th. This has two obvious benefits:
1. Your best reliever gets used when the game is on the line, not coming in with the bases empty in the 9th.
2. Since getting saves gets the pitcher the rep as a "closer", it means he can demand a higher salary. So you let your 3rd or 4th best reliever walk and get another guy to fill the role while your ACTUAL most valuable reliever can't demand the higher salary because he's not the closer. So it keeps costs down, which you can then use to fill the hole in your roster.
It's because a save is so worthless that it is the correct strategy to use your 3rd or 4th reliever as "the closer" while you use your actual best reliever in high leverage situations when the game is truly at stake in the 7th or 8th. This has two obvious benefits:
1. Your best reliever gets used when the game is on the line, not coming in with the bases empty in the 9th.
2. Since getting saves gets the pitcher the rep as a "closer", it means he can demand a higher salary. So you let your 3rd or 4th best reliever walk and get another guy to fill the role while your ACTUAL most valuable reliever can't demand the higher salary because he's not the closer. So it keeps costs down, which you can then use to fill the hole in your roster.
Posted on 8/3/08 at 5:25 pm to Baloo
I dont really buy that too much...
do you honestly think all closers are the 3rd or 4th best relievers on the team?
maybe a handful of teams, but I dont think it is very common to find a closer as the 3rd or 4th best reliever on a team.
I mean the game isnt always at stake in the 7th or 8th inning. A lot of times a reliever comes in for other reasons then to "pitch out of a jam".
the 9th is obviously just as important, because in a lot of cases, your offense is out of chances to score. You cant risk giving up runs, which is why the best reliever is usually the closer in most cases.
there is leeway in the 7th or 8th because you still have chances to score if it gets away
do you honestly think all closers are the 3rd or 4th best relievers on the team?
maybe a handful of teams, but I dont think it is very common to find a closer as the 3rd or 4th best reliever on a team.
I mean the game isnt always at stake in the 7th or 8th inning. A lot of times a reliever comes in for other reasons then to "pitch out of a jam".
the 9th is obviously just as important, because in a lot of cases, your offense is out of chances to score. You cant risk giving up runs, which is why the best reliever is usually the closer in most cases.
there is leeway in the 7th or 8th because you still have chances to score if it gets away
Posted on 8/3/08 at 5:33 pm to Lester Earl
No, I think a lot of teams use their best relievers as their closer. I just think it's a waste.
"Pitching out of a jam" IS the critical moment of a game. But managers have been trained to save their best arm in the bullpen for a ninth inning save situation which may never come instead of trotting out their best reliever when the game is actually at stake.
In a one-run game, the other team is more likely to come back once they have a baserunner. Having a runner on obviously leads to more runs than not having a runner on. And in a late inning situation, say the 7th or 8th, there's hardly a manager in the game who would trot out his ace reliever with runners on the corners and one out in the 7th. They'll save the closer for bases empty in the 9th. that's just a ridiculous way to manage your bullpen. It's managing to the statistic.
Use your best reliever when the game is on the line. If that situation never arises, then use the bullpen to start the ninth.
I agree, NO ONE does this (well, some teams do by accident). But they should, as it would be a more efficeint use of resources.
"Pitching out of a jam" IS the critical moment of a game. But managers have been trained to save their best arm in the bullpen for a ninth inning save situation which may never come instead of trotting out their best reliever when the game is actually at stake.
In a one-run game, the other team is more likely to come back once they have a baserunner. Having a runner on obviously leads to more runs than not having a runner on. And in a late inning situation, say the 7th or 8th, there's hardly a manager in the game who would trot out his ace reliever with runners on the corners and one out in the 7th. They'll save the closer for bases empty in the 9th. that's just a ridiculous way to manage your bullpen. It's managing to the statistic.
Use your best reliever when the game is on the line. If that situation never arises, then use the bullpen to start the ninth.
I agree, NO ONE does this (well, some teams do by accident). But they should, as it would be a more efficeint use of resources.
Posted on 8/3/08 at 5:37 pm to Baloo
my bad, i misinterpreted what you were saying.
Posted on 8/3/08 at 5:39 pm to Lester Earl
I probably wasn't being clear. Not a big deal. It gave me a chance to rant some more about my pet topic. So thanks.
I really hate the save. I hate modern closers, the most coddled professional athlete in history. Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage should be allowed to pick a random closer and kick him in the nuts once a month.
I really hate the save. I hate modern closers, the most coddled professional athlete in history. Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage should be allowed to pick a random closer and kick him in the nuts once a month.
Posted on 8/3/08 at 6:18 pm to Baloo
I do think there's some worth in guys in the bullpen having a clear role every game, instead of sitting down there never knowing when they're going to come into a game.
I don't think that's enough worth to throw a mediocre 7th inning guy in a 1-out jam with the heart of the opposing team's lineup coming up instead of throwing your best reliever... but there's some worth in the routine roles.
I don't think that's enough worth to throw a mediocre 7th inning guy in a 1-out jam with the heart of the opposing team's lineup coming up instead of throwing your best reliever... but there's some worth in the routine roles.
Posted on 8/3/08 at 6:20 pm to Ron Mexico
quote:
you say that it isnt fantasy, yet you just dropped all kinds of fantasy stats. who cares if he is having a below par year statisticaly, he is getting outs when others might not be.
What in the world? Strikeouts are a fantasy stat? Walks are a fantasy stat? Do you know what FIP even is? K/9 and BB/9 are among the most direct ways to judge a pitcher's effectiveness.
quote:
Use your best reliever when the game is on the line. If that situation never arises, then use the bullpen to start the ninth.
This is what should be done. You should never lose a game with your best weapon on the bench just because it isn't the 9th inning yet and you don't want to bring him in.
This post was edited on 8/3/08 at 6:22 pm
Posted on 8/3/08 at 7:43 pm to Roughneck
quote:
Todd Jones
Worst closer ever with at least 300 saves. You know what...frick that, he's the worst closer ever with at least 50 saves.
Posted on 8/3/08 at 10:13 pm to Baloo
quote:
there's hardly a manager in the game who would trot out his ace reliever with runners on the corners and one out in the 7th. They'll save the closer for bases empty in the 9th.
This drives me insane. No outs no one one, he comes the closer to "save" the game, what a crock.
As for managing to the stat, I've always joked that managers most be getting payoffs from closers and their agents.
Posted on 8/5/08 at 1:20 pm to H-Town Tiger
Posted on 8/5/08 at 1:22 pm to reddman
quote:
Worst closer ever with at least 300 saves. You know what...frick that, he's the worst closer ever with at least 50 saves.
and a Superbas all-star.
Posted on 8/5/08 at 1:23 pm to ToplessTenors4evuh
Posted on 8/5/08 at 1:29 pm to someoldhussy
60 Minutes this past Sunday had a feature on Bill James - he's not a big fan of the role of the Closer:
Bill James - The Closer
quote:
The main thinking in the Bill James camp is that the role of the closer is overrated. They feel that any average pitcher can become a successful closer and generally that using one of the best pitches you have in such a role is a waste. The save is such an easy stat to attain that you can get most any big league pitcher to accumulate saves and inflate his value far higher than it actually is.
There is some truth to this. The save generally is a pretty meaningless stat. A pitcher can come in with a three run lead in the ninth inning and nobody on base. If he pitches the inning without giving up three runs, he is credited with the save. Most any pitcher should be able to go an inning without giving up three runs. This isn't much of a feat to be credited for. The problem is that they don't see past the stat and delve into what the closer is actually there for.
Bill James - The Closer
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