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Oil ETFs: Can you use a leveraged ETF and an inverse ETF to hedge against each other?
Posted on 2/18/15 at 1:00 am
Posted on 2/18/15 at 1:00 am
For example: UCO and DWTI? One tracks the price of oil going up and the other one is an inverse ETF.
This post was edited on 2/18/15 at 1:04 am
Posted on 2/18/15 at 7:55 am to saintforlife1
Yeah. If you like methodically losing money due to decay.
Posted on 2/18/15 at 8:10 am to saintforlife1
Or you could just buy less of the leveraged ETF. Also, on leveraged ETFs as Flask points out the time decay really starts to hammer you. Especially if it is any more than a 2x etf (decay still exists on the double leverage but not as pronounced).
Posted on 2/18/15 at 8:12 am to LSU0358
Never quite understood the decay factor, can you give a brief explanation?
Posted on 2/18/15 at 8:54 am to raw dog
Leveraged ETFs have significant rebalancing costs as target asset prices move. Pull up a 4 year chart of a 3x ETF and its corresponding inverse ETF and note that they don't net to zero. For instance, the 4 year chart on DIG and DUG show a 13% gain and a 60% loss, respectively.
Posted on 2/18/15 at 9:12 am to TheHiddenFlask
LINK
Flask nails it. The rebalancing costs/fees as the asset moves. One would be better off leveraging up in the actual asset instead of the ETF.
Flask nails it. The rebalancing costs/fees as the asset moves. One would be better off leveraging up in the actual asset instead of the ETF.
Posted on 2/18/15 at 9:16 am to LSU0358
Much appreciated. What exactly do the rebalancing costs and fees consist of?
Posted on 2/18/15 at 9:22 am to TheHiddenFlask
Aren't all commodity etf's affected by decay, not just leveraged? Leveraged funds suffer the effects of daily compounding, but decay has a different cause and effect, at least the way I define the term.
This post was edited on 2/18/15 at 9:53 am
Posted on 2/18/15 at 9:37 am to raw dog
Let's use a 2 x oil etf for an example. Oil sits at $100/bbl. This particular etf has $10,000,000 in the fund. A 1% move in oil would mean a 2% move in the fund (or $200,000). This means a move in oil to $101 a barrel must mean a $200,000 move in the fund. This would mean if the etf was using NYMEX futures for the fund at the start of the trading day with oil at $100 they must hold 200 futures contracts. The move to $101 now gives 10,200,000 in the fund. The next day a 1% move in oil requires a move in the fund of $204,000. Now the fund would have buy 3 to 4 additional contracts to stay at the proper leverage ratio advertised by the fund.
Now lets say oil dropped 1% with oil at $100. Now the fund has 9,800,000 and must sell contracts (and lock in leveraged losses) to maintain the proper 2:1 leverage.
Now lets say oil dropped 1% with oil at $100. Now the fund has 9,800,000 and must sell contracts (and lock in leveraged losses) to maintain the proper 2:1 leverage.
Posted on 2/19/15 at 12:09 am to sneakytiger
Some have negative roll yield, which causes returns below the actual asset prices. I'm not aware of decay in the classic sense of the word. Roll yield can be positive or negative depending on the backwardation or Contango of the market.
Posted on 2/19/15 at 12:28 am to TheHiddenFlask
Thanks for your contribution to this thread. I'll admit I am still trying to fully grasp the concept of decay...however, I bought XIV (a leveraged ETF) back in June 2013 for ~$24. Since then the S&P 500 has returned 25% and XIX 37% (see chart below). I have basically treated it like a stock and held it long term against all conventional wisdom, I guess.
Could you tell me how the decay applies when you hold a leveraged ETF for long periods of time and where I might be losing out?
Could you tell me how the decay applies when you hold a leveraged ETF for long periods of time and where I might be losing out?
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