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Oil ETFs: Can you use a leveraged ETF and an inverse ETF to hedge against each other?

Posted on 2/18/15 at 1:00 am
Posted by saintforlife1
Member since Jul 2012
1321 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 1:00 am
For example: UCO and DWTI? One tracks the price of oil going up and the other one is an inverse ETF.
This post was edited on 2/18/15 at 1:04 am
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 7:55 am to
Yeah. If you like methodically losing money due to decay.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7916 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 8:10 am to
Or you could just buy less of the leveraged ETF. Also, on leveraged ETFs as Flask points out the time decay really starts to hammer you. Especially if it is any more than a 2x etf (decay still exists on the double leverage but not as pronounced).
Posted by raw dog
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2011
483 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 8:12 am to
Never quite understood the decay factor, can you give a brief explanation?
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 8:54 am to
Leveraged ETFs have significant rebalancing costs as target asset prices move. Pull up a 4 year chart of a 3x ETF and its corresponding inverse ETF and note that they don't net to zero. For instance, the 4 year chart on DIG and DUG show a 13% gain and a 60% loss, respectively.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7916 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 9:12 am to
LINK

Flask nails it. The rebalancing costs/fees as the asset moves. One would be better off leveraging up in the actual asset instead of the ETF.
Posted by raw dog
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2011
483 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 9:16 am to
Much appreciated. What exactly do the rebalancing costs and fees consist of?
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2471 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 9:22 am to
Aren't all commodity etf's affected by decay, not just leveraged? Leveraged funds suffer the effects of daily compounding, but decay has a different cause and effect, at least the way I define the term.
This post was edited on 2/18/15 at 9:53 am
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7916 posts
Posted on 2/18/15 at 9:37 am to
Let's use a 2 x oil etf for an example. Oil sits at $100/bbl. This particular etf has $10,000,000 in the fund. A 1% move in oil would mean a 2% move in the fund (or $200,000). This means a move in oil to $101 a barrel must mean a $200,000 move in the fund. This would mean if the etf was using NYMEX futures for the fund at the start of the trading day with oil at $100 they must hold 200 futures contracts. The move to $101 now gives 10,200,000 in the fund. The next day a 1% move in oil requires a move in the fund of $204,000. Now the fund would have buy 3 to 4 additional contracts to stay at the proper leverage ratio advertised by the fund.

Now lets say oil dropped 1% with oil at $100. Now the fund has 9,800,000 and must sell contracts (and lock in leveraged losses) to maintain the proper 2:1 leverage.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 2/19/15 at 12:09 am to
Some have negative roll yield, which causes returns below the actual asset prices. I'm not aware of decay in the classic sense of the word. Roll yield can be positive or negative depending on the backwardation or Contango of the market.
Posted by saintforlife1
Member since Jul 2012
1321 posts
Posted on 2/19/15 at 12:28 am to
Thanks for your contribution to this thread. I'll admit I am still trying to fully grasp the concept of decay...however, I bought XIV (a leveraged ETF) back in June 2013 for ~$24. Since then the S&P 500 has returned 25% and XIX 37% (see chart below). I have basically treated it like a stock and held it long term against all conventional wisdom, I guess.

Could you tell me how the decay applies when you hold a leveraged ETF for long periods of time and where I might be losing out?


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