Money Talk Reunion Thread

Kfizz is too busy shorting frozen concentrated orange juice...or something like that

I made fun of the Nat gas thread and the male nurse claimed that he was right about it. He then added the caveat of "originally right".

I don't have the time or energy to fight the good fight against those guys. The days of fighting with Rivers are past me. I do sometimes wonder what ever became of him. I hope he didn't actually mortgage his house to short the Dow at 10,000.

I think my last great battle was with that snake oil salesman "Baylor" and his suicide pact buddy "teacher". Those two were off the charts obnoxious. I think Teacher is still posting on TD, but Baylor packed his carpetbag and moved on.

I didn't lose all of my money in the natty gas thread. The scorecard in golf is important. The scorecard in financial matters in the real world is measured in net worth. Not what some on here post. Always posting claiming to win and never lose.

To each their own, but I do play commodities based on fundamentals, and I do have about $120K in penny sticks that actually have a business and make money. One of my pennies actually pays a dividend. The natural gas thread had a lot of good research.

Anyway. Just saying. Real life > Fantasy stock pick game.

It is the widow maker. But you're right, it gets disconnected from fundamentals a lot more than copper or aluminum as an example. Not that demand for industrial commodities has anything to do with the liberal "recovery" as of late.

Look, you're correct that 85% of the retail guys are gambling, but the guy that did most of the leg work in the natty gas thread isn't exactly one of these. He's pretty sharp, although the thread title should likely be renamed "BOIL is ALMOST always predictable, but sometimes not very much!" We all took a hit this winter, but for me it dropped my gains to about 23% instead of the 60% I was at in October.

With respect to penny stocks, National Bank of Greece is worth the risk to me. Freddie and Fannie as well. The difference is that at least they do something, unlike what 80% of the guys are posting about in that thread.

I'm just saying I like to have some small percentage of my available liquid funds in a high risk, high reward play that is at least based on some logic.

I'm also saying most all of my losers are posted on here. I lost money last year trading. First time in a long time, but it happens. I limit my losses, take a break, regroup and move on.

I just don't even think it's almost always predictable. Even though the supply side can be forecasted, short-term demand is almost entirely due to weather, which is inherently unpredictable, at least in any sort of fundamental value sort of understanding. Sure, we can make long-term demand projections, such as those expected increases associated with future coal-to-natural gas switching in the power generation space, but the market refuses to be forward-looking for more than just a few weeks out. It's the most speculative contract on the planet and should be reserved primarily for industrial hedging purposes.

One could presumably go way out on the curve with less speculation, but let's face it, those people in that thread are trying to make short-term calls, and the more "predictable" they think it is, the more likely they are to lose all or most of their money.

Whatever happened to Tha Big Fella?