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re: Recruiting ratings are not all they're cracked up to be

Posted on 1/24/15 at 2:18 pm to
Posted by LordoftheManor
Member since Jul 2006
8371 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 2:18 pm to
oh this thread again
Posted by Suntiger
BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
32880 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 2:33 pm to
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26614 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 4:58 pm to
There are like 30-35 5 stars per year and around 260 4 stars, there are thousands of 2 and 3 stars by comparison.

If only half the 5 stars and 4 stars live up to their potential, that will still be waaaay higher percentage wise, than three star recruits.

I've already said this before, but some lower guys are overlooked and most are just not developed yet physically or mentally. Once they get into college however, they start packing on the muscle and knowledge and working harder than the next guy because they don't have those early talents.

I'll pose this question again, when is the last time a team loaded with 2-3 star recruits or "average high school recruits" (before the rating system), won a national championship?

We are in the business of winning college ball. Some of those really good 2 and 3 star NFL players have average college careers and blow up in the NFL.

There is so much wrong with people using this crap that the OP brings up, that it hurts my head.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66344 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 5:34 pm to
yeah clearly there are a lot of issues with rating

1. they don't scout every player equally
2. they are trying to sell subscriptions so they have to pump up uncommitted kids to keep it interesting.
Posted by VerlanderBEAST
Member since Dec 2011
18981 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 5:42 pm to
quote:

Stars for high school players is an inexact science no doubt. Yes some 5 and 4 star players will not do well in college and some 3 star guys will be All Americans. However, as many have pointed out it is a percentage game. I'll take the 4 and 5 stars and take my chances every time.


Stars are based on hype nothing else. Just because a few live up to the hype doesn't mean the star rankings are based in anything real.

Which is different than basketball where the guys doing the rankings have actually watched the majority of the guys they rank play sometimes hundreds of games there is no hiding who's good and who's hype.
Posted by VerlanderBEAST
Member since Dec 2011
18981 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 5:45 pm to
quote:


I'll pose this question again, when is the last time a team loaded with 2-3 star recruits or "average high school recruits" (before the rating system), won a national championship?

We are in the business of winning college ball. Some of those really good 2 and 3 star NFL players have average college careers and blow up in the NFL.

There is so much wrong with people using this crap that the OP brings up, that it hurts my head.


Teams don't win because they get high ranked players.

Players get ranked high because they commit/get offered by teams that win
Posted by EyeoftheTiger 2015
Member since Jan 2015
294 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 6:22 pm to
quote:

I'll pose this question again, when is the last time a team loaded with 2-3 star recruits or "average high school recruits" (before the rating system), won a national championship?


They didn't win a NC but got into 2 championship games...Oregon. They had a lot more 3* than 4* and very, very few 5*. Here is their 24/7 composite rankings for the last many years.

2014 - 21st
2013 - 19th
2012 - 13th
2011 - 11th
2010 - 13th
2009 - 28th
2008 - 23rd
2007 - 14th

0 Top 10 finishes and made 2 of the last 5 CGs.
This post was edited on 1/24/15 at 6:23 pm
Posted by sassyLSU
Lake Charles, La.
Member since May 2011
2080 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 6:38 pm to
actually, there is a high correlation of finish in the recruiting battles and winning the SEC west.

there are THOUSANDS of three stars, so there are more 3 stars in the NFL than 5 stars. There are between 20 and 30 five stars each year.

Stats say that 20% of five stars make it in the NFL.

How do you like Patrick Peterson on Az?

Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 6:59 pm to
A fairly reliable indicator that your team is not having the recruiting year it would like us the appearance if threads similar to this one.
Posted by EyeoftheTiger 2015
Member since Jan 2015
294 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 7:45 pm to
Agree some, disagree some. First, hard to condemn a class which by Rivals (still the one I consider the best) has LSU with 4 5*. Where you could seriously question the class is 1 DL and 0 LBers at this point. You have 18 commits and only 1 commit in the front 7 of the defense. Also, Grimes is doing a better job than Studrawa his last few years but as James Smith the other day during his chat, he thought that Grimes would be doing better recruiting. Hard to give him credit for Maea Teuhema since of course he came with his brother Sione.

Where is a "stud" {sorry, couldn't resist that one} OL that he himself is responsible for? And it isn't like a guy who comes to LSU as an OL is going to be "miles" {oops, did it again, sorry} down the depth chart.
Posted by Tigerinthehollow
Madison, MS
Member since Sep 2014
5655 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 8:16 pm to
so, name all the teams that have won the national championship in the BCS era that DON'T routinely land top 10-12 classes? I'll hang up and listen.

Me thinks you didn't think this one through. There are MANY more 2 and 3 star players each year, and only a select number of 4 and 5 star players. Of course a lowly ranked player can turn out to be a superstar. Odds are though, that about 50% of 5 star players go on to the pros. Less than 10% of 3 star or lower players go on to the NFL. I'll build my team full of 5 stars thank you.
Posted by Tigerinthehollow
Madison, MS
Member since Sep 2014
5655 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 8:19 pm to
quote:

Stats say that 20% of five stars make it in the NFL.


I think you better check your math. I've read numerous times where 40-50% of 5 star players make it to the NFL. Not saying they stay there long, but make it.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26614 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 8:26 pm to
quote:

They didn't win a NC but got into 2 championship games...Oregon. They had a lot more 3* than 4* and very, very few 5*. Here is their 24/7 composite rankings for the last many years.


So again when has the last team loaded with two and three stars won a national championship???

Posted by Tigerinthehollow
Madison, MS
Member since Sep 2014
5655 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 8:50 pm to
quote:

They didn't win a NC but got into 2 championship games...Oregon.


you just helped the argument. Oregon is always considered awesome...until they face a team with premier talent. LSU kicked their arse in 2011.....Auburn beat them in 2012...and now Ohio State beat them in 2014. They have also lost to teams like Stanford.

They were trying to be the first team to win a bcs championship with a team that didn't have two top 10 recruiting classes. In the end, they got completely dominated by better talent.

Saying they made the championship in 2012 doesn't mean anything. They only had to go through the pac 12. This year, they did beat Florida State, but most believed Florida State wasn't a top 10 team.

Again, NO team in the BCS era has won a national championship without top 10 recruiting classes. That's not a coincidence.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26614 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

2014 - 21st 2013 - 19th 2012 - 13th 2011 - 11th 2010 - 13th 2009 - 28th 2008 - 23rd 2007 - 14th 0 Top 10 finishes and made 2 of the last 5 CGs.


Also, you are telling me a team who is consistently in the top 20 recruiting, qualifies for this????

A team loaded with 2 and 3 stars aren't winning a national title. They may win a small arse conference title with others teams having 2 and 3 star recruits, but not a national title.

Also, look at Oregon's 2014 roster and tell me that even comes close to qualifying as a bunch of 2 and 3 stars. Wow they went to a championship in 2010 in a garbage arse conference, you saw how we lit their assessment up in 2011.

Oregon 2014 players

Ekpre Ifo Olomu CB 4 star
Christian French OLB 4 star
Arik Armstead DE 5 star
Pharoah Brown TE 4 star
Reggie Daniels SS 4 star
Evan Baylis TE 4 star
Alex Balducci DE 4 star
Byron Marshall RB/WR 4 star
Thomas Tyner RB 5 star
Royce Freeman RB 4 (damn near 5) star
DeForest Buckner DE 4 star
Dwayne Stanford WR 4 star
Andre Yruretagoyena OT 4 star
Dior Mathis CB 4 star
Tyree Robinson FS 4 star
Cameron Hunt OG 4 star
Devon Allen WR 4 star


This is just the damn two deep for this year aside from like one DE.

Did you even try to look this shite up??? Oregon has tons of injured, suspended, or just depth 4 stars behind those guys as well.

This post was edited on 1/24/15 at 9:25 pm
Posted by TigerTerez0307
Member since Apr 2013
617 posts
Posted on 1/24/15 at 11:04 pm to
JEEEE-VUS HAVE MERCI! !!!
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59064 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

. Ignore the ESPN (or whatever) stars. Pick the guys with the skill set you need and with the attitude and intelligence to work at their craft.


That's pretty much what the coaches do. The rating services however are no blind and they too can see that certain players are better than others and that's why those guys get 5*.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59064 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

Players get ranked high because they commit/get offered by teams that win


that's not necessarily true either. It does happen that guys get bumps when they are being recruited by bigger programs, but that's more 3* to low 4.

Everyone can watch guys like Clowney or Fournette and the other 5* and see they are elite players at the HS level that project well to the next level.
Posted by lsufanva
sandston virginia
Member since Aug 2009
12371 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 12:59 pm to
Great post. Was just about to post to go look at the top of the depth chart at Oregon and see the ratings of those kids. The reason for their low class rankings are twofold. First, they generally take smaller classes than most ranked ahead(they don't over sign, process or whatever you want to call it). Second, their classes are top heavy therefore the bottom half are lower ranked kids bring down the overall ranking. Kind of like our class this year. Those 4 5* kids and high 4s are the only reason our class isn't in the 20s or 30s.

Our class will end up around 10 or so but isn't really a complete class. Its great in a couple of areas but very weak in others. IMO not really a top 10 type class unless we fill some of those holes no matter what a ranking site says. All of our power in the class is at rb,wr and db. Even with Teuhema our OL class is kind of men.
Posted by dreaux
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2006
40881 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 1:06 pm to
TCU completely outclassed ole miss and some say would've beaten ohio state.

They are completely dominating...

How does their recruiting classes look.???

Also...by the same logic..Florida state should've beat the crap out of Oregon since Florida state has had top 3 recruiting classes since jimbo has been there.

By the same logic...will muschamp would've never been fired.

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