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LSU Hoops (5-2) @ #16 West Virginia (7-0) - Thurs 6:00 - ESPN2
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:26 am
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:26 am
Who: West Virginia Mountaineers (7-0)
What: SEC/Big12 Challenge
When: Thursday, December 4th - 6:00pm
Where: WVU Coliseum (14,000, 41st NCAA) Morgantown, WV
How:
***TV: ESPN2
***Radio: 98.1FM
***Stream: ESPN3.com
Just 46 hours after LSU's most convincing win of the season, LSU must travel to the unfriendly confines of Morgantown, West Virginia to take on the 16th ranked Mountaineers. West Virginia comes into the game 7-0 with a very impressive 10 point win over UCONN. The Mountain Men use a ton of defensive pressure and depth to ware out their opponents; a tactic that could really hurt the depthless Tigers.
While they don't wow you offensively, they have scored over 75 points in 5 of their 7 games due to two main factors; rebounding and turnovers.
The Mountaineers have rebounded 45.3% of their own misses. That is second best in the country. In fact, they have more offensive rebounds than defensive rebounds (144 vs 142). It will be key for LSU to limit second chance opportunities against West Virginia.
West Virginia has even more staggering numbers in the turnover game. West Virginia averages a minuscule 10.6 turnovers per game. Even more incredible may be the 23.1 turnovers they force. The Mountaineers use high pressure to speed up their opponents. Their opponents average only 14.1 seconds per possession, which is the lowest in the NCAA. LSU will really need to make sure they protect the ball
West Virginia doesn't have a height advantage over LSU, but uses their 10 man rotation to tirelessly fight for the ball both on the boards and on defense. They have the 11th most bench minutes in the nation. They aren't a great shooting team. They average 31.2% from three point range (227th in NCAA), 47.4% from two point range (177th in NCAA), and 65.9% from the free throw line (235th in NCAA). Still, with rebounding and turnover margin, they have been able to crush opponents.
This game will take complete concentration by the Tigers. A rowdy crowd and a team that relies heavily on forcing opponents make mistakes is a true test of the mental fortitude of a team.
This is an important game for LSU. With two early losses, LSU needs a statement win to prove they deserve a look at the NCAA Tournament. This is a game that could be a huge statement win over a very good Big 12 team. The SEC has some pretty bad losses (Cue #SECBasketballFever) but Arkansas has emerged from the pack as a tournament caliber team. LSU could do the same, turning the corner on the road.
Keys to the Game:
1. Turnover Margin: LSU doesn't have to win the turnover battle, but keeping it close is imperative. LSU turned the ball over way too much against UMASS and will have to slow down their pace on offense and get good looks out of their halfcourt sets to have a chance against WVU.
2. Rebounding: Connecticut is the only team to out-rebound West Virginia this season, but the Mountain Men were still able to win due to their best shooting performance of the year. LSU will need to keep WVU off the offensive glass or it could be a long night for the Tigers.
3. Scoring in the Paint: LSU scored 52 points in the paint against UMASS and West Virginia is allowing opponents to shoot 53.9% from two point range. That could be a deadly combo for LSU's offense.
Prediction:
West Virginia 76, LSU 72
SEC/Big12 Challenge Schedule:
Wednesday, Dec 3rd
8pm - Auburn @ Texas Tech (ESPN3)
Thursday, Dec 4th
6pm - LSU @ West Virginia (ESPN2)
6pm - Baylor @ Vanderbilt (ESPNU)
8pm - Arkansas @ Iowa St (ESPN2)
8pm - TCU @ Ole Miss (ESPNU)
Friday, Dec 5th
6pm - Texas @ Kentucky (ESPN)
8pm - Florida @ Kansas (ESPN)
8:30pm - Missouri @ Oklahoma (ESPNU)
Saturday, Dec 6th
11am - Oklahoma St @ South Carolina (ESPNU)
2:15pm - Kansas St @ Tennessee (ESPNU)
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 3:01 pm
17
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:31 am to SouthOfSouth
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:34 am to DeathValley85
Another note: I was surprised to see their attendance numbers. For a school known for crazy fans, albeit normally for football, I was expecting them to fill up their 14k stadium. Instead they have hovered between 7k and 8k sold so it should look like LSU does. 
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:34 am to SouthOfSouth
Just hope we come out like we did last night. It was very encouraging.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:40 am to The Truth 34
quote:
Just hope we come out like we did last night. It was very encouraging.
I wanted to over-react to last nights game and pick LSU, but until LSU proves to me they can mentally prepare for a road game, I can't do it. LSU lost to some less than stellar teams in the Virgin Islands. Playing against a team that frustrates opponents with offensive rebounds and turnovers can really get in your head.
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 10:41 am
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:47 am to SouthOfSouth
Yea this is the kind of game to get people back on the bandwagon. Need to prove we can do it on the road as we've lost some head scratchers over the past few years.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:49 am to SouthOfSouth
quote:Old Dominion did pick up a win against VCU. May not mean much since it is early in the season, but hopefully it won't effect us as bad as we once thought.
LSU lost to some less than stellar teams in the Virgin Islands
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:50 am to massiveattack
LSU can only dream about getting 7k out to watch a basketball game.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:10 am to Shadowlink
quote:
Old Dominion did pick up a win against VCU. May not mean much since it is early in the season, but hopefully it won't effect us as bad as we once thought.
Yea. Old Dominion isn't terrible. They will rack up wins in CUSA.
Clemson may not reach 10 wins this year.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:10 am to SouthOfSouth
Like you discussed, they don't shoot the ball all that well. In fact, opponents are shooting a slightly higher FG% than WVU. The difference is that due to the offensive rebounds and forced TO's, they are averaging about (if my math is correct) 20 more shots per game than their opponents and 7 more made baskets. They lead the NATION in Offensive rebounds per game and steals per game. Gray can't have 7 TO against them like he did last night.
The good news is that WVU may not be "bad" matchup for LSU. Like LSU, they like to play a pretty up-tempo game. That said, LSU's best performances have come against teams that like to play fast (UMass, Gardner-Webb, McNeese). Conversely, their worst performances have been against teams that prefer to slow the game down (ODU, Clemson, TTU).
With TQ on the court LSU has 5 guys that are comfortable handling the ball. Early on they blew UMass's press apart. If they can beat WVU's pressure, they've obviously got the athletes to get to the bucket and finish for easy points. IMO, LSU is at their worst when they are forced to play in the half-court. They tend to settle for 3's in those situations which are clearly not the strength of the team.
LSU's depth is an issue, but pressuring LSU on defense hasn't seemed to work out well for opponents.
The good news is that WVU may not be "bad" matchup for LSU. Like LSU, they like to play a pretty up-tempo game. That said, LSU's best performances have come against teams that like to play fast (UMass, Gardner-Webb, McNeese). Conversely, their worst performances have been against teams that prefer to slow the game down (ODU, Clemson, TTU).
With TQ on the court LSU has 5 guys that are comfortable handling the ball. Early on they blew UMass's press apart. If they can beat WVU's pressure, they've obviously got the athletes to get to the bucket and finish for easy points. IMO, LSU is at their worst when they are forced to play in the half-court. They tend to settle for 3's in those situations which are clearly not the strength of the team.
LSU's depth is an issue, but pressuring LSU on defense hasn't seemed to work out well for opponents.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:11 am to guttata
quote:
LSU can only dream about getting 7k out to watch a basketball game.
Not true at all...
During SEC games, LSU will get that number. And the 7k attendance number I saw on WVU was paid only... paid attendance for last nights game was 6962.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:18 am to SouthOfSouth
Wvu 76 LSU 58
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:37 am to LSUTIGERS8181
SouthOfSouth, once again a solid write up! Nice job bro. I really apprciate that you take the time out do this before every game
I've seen all I've needed to see of the team this year to know they will only go as far as Gray will lead them. If Gray is aggressive, the team will be competitive. If Gray is passive they will lose a lot of games. Gray is our best player and he really needs to take on that attitude when he steps on the court each and every time he plays.
I've seen all I've needed to see of the team this year to know they will only go as far as Gray will lead them. If Gray is aggressive, the team will be competitive. If Gray is passive they will lose a lot of games. Gray is our best player and he really needs to take on that attitude when he steps on the court each and every time he plays.
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 11:39 am
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:44 am to SouthOfSouth
quote:I'm with you there. I love the match-ups. Very poor shooting team, small lineup that our front line should destroy. But a lot of it depends on Josh Gray and whether he accepts his role or tries to launch a bunch of threes. His last second three last night worried me as I hope that didn't give him too much confidence in his shot.
I wanted to over-react to last nights game and pick LSU, but until LSU proves to me they can mentally prepare for a road game, I can't do it. LSU lost to some less than stellar teams in the Virgin Islands. Playing against a team that frustrates opponents with offensive rebounds and turnovers can really get in your head.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:48 am to mmcgrath
If Josh Gray is scoring, I want it to be around the rim. Him getting inside opens up others for open looks. That is the way our offense should be run. Let Gray get inside after a screen, then he either takes it all the way to the hoop, or finds the open man. Simple, yet with the players around him, effective.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:54 am to SouthOfSouth
Ought to be a good test for the Tigers
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:41 pm to Hammond Tiger Fan
quote:
I've seen all I've needed to see of the team this year to know they will only go as far as Gray will lead them. If Gray is aggressive, the team will be competitive. If Gray is passive they will lose a lot of games. Gray is our best player and he really needs to take on that attitude when he steps on the court each and every time he plays.
I wouldn't say that he is LSU's best player, but he certainly "drives the bus". LSU doesn't exactly run a very structured offense (or at least it doesn't appear that way to me) They get a lot of their shots off of winning one-on-one matchups. I don't think anybody can consistently stay in front of Gray if he wants to get into the lane. Him doing so draws defenders and provides open looks for Mickey and Martin. For LSU to win games he has to create scoring opportunities for both himself and his teammates.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:42 pm to SouthOfSouth
Gray showed last night what he's able to do when feeling confident and free. Yea, shite ton of turnovers, but some were just him being a little too aggressive, and 2 were because Odo has brick hands and terrible offensive awareness.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:45 pm to LSUButt
While I hate turnovers, in certain situations they are okay. If he can create a shot that has nearly a 100% possibility of being made (aka dunk/layup) and then he turns it over occasionally trying to make that pass it is still like shooting 50% from the field, which is good.
Still, Would like it if he can limit turnovers while still being aggressive.
Still, Would like it if he can limit turnovers while still being aggressive.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 1:37 pm to SouthOfSouth
We need this type of out of conference win.
I wouldn't say its a must win but it's an important game.
I wouldn't say its a must win but it's an important game.
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